Cary67

30 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

LOL @ Cook County

 

Donut hole moved from Cook to Mchenry Co. 6Z Euro looks like it has a bit of a dry slot pointed toward same area

13 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Apparently the Euro weeklies look like Feb 2015. Feb 2015 was an incredibly boring month outside of the GHD storm. Just endless brutal cold. 

 

Interesting if that verifies could see some significant systems when most dont want them in March to early April as cold pattern relaxes.

1 hour ago, DAFF said:

I'd say the Euro is one step closer, in getting out of the ALEK doghouse..

Better with temps not so much overamped storms 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

final call 2.5"

Thats alot of rain

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't even consider it positivity, it's just realism. I'm NOT happy with the lack of Winter weather recently either, but it's just comical when I read responses or knee jerk reactions to op runs and claims of dispair, when the big picture and reality of weather and climate is so  misunderstood by even so many weather hobbyists. Having a true sense of your areas climatological history as I and a few others on here have, is awesome in my opinion. I do know that some posters enjoy our climate posts and others probably get annoyed saying they don't want to hear about climo, yet all it is is stating fact.

 

What I find amusing about the season in SE MI is that we're kind of having an East Coast Winter to be honest. We had a big snowstorm in November 11-12th, a big rainstorm December 29-30th, and a big rainstorm (with a bit of frozen) January 10-12th. All 3 storms were very impressive, especially the November and January storms as they set all time records for their respective months. But outside of those 3 storms, it's been a ton of zzzzs.  Don't get me wrong we've had many typical SE MI days of flurries, snow showers, and dustings, but that is going to be impossible to not get living in the Great Lakes. The general picture though has been that of the East Coast climate, and I know you will remember back in the day when we were bombarded with constant nuisance snow falls and i was in my glory, there was a huge contingent here that said they get tired of our constant small snows and want an East Coast type climate. Where are they now lol?

Would agree this winter may resemble an East Coast winter in the fact it seems to be starting up later and we have had a few moisture laden systems. But you dont have an ocean, you dont get the bombogenesis winter storms with anywhere near the frequency as the NE

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Stop me if we’ve seen this before... 

 

Real kicker will be to see systems bypassing us south by the end of the month.

1.5" here

Lets get some more rain before suppression pattern and coastals start in the next few weeks

19 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Defo band continues to fall apart. Under and inch imby, and the remaining band isn’t going to be very impressive for anyone 

The 17th -18th system is calling. Like a carrot just out of reach. 14-16th already dead

Just now, michaelmantis said:

This thread will either turn into pictures of 20 foot waves on Lake Michigan or people’s brown backyards.

13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

No real point now given how terrible guidance is, just a guessing game.

Still a spread for later today/tonight. Metro could get 1-3" or 4-7". Who knows anymore...

You've followed winter weather quite awhile. What percentage of these WSWs or WWAs do you think end up meeting the criteria? Ball park estimate

43 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The summary so far is guidance sucked, and an under-performance just about everywhere in every aspect...almost.

Only things that seem to be panning out are the high winds and a corridor in MO/IL/IN that did as expected with rainfall.


.

I see no one rushing to post new run cycles of various models

Light sleet here

23 minutes ago, Baum said:

wait...you get more than one call ? Hedge...

If wxrisk can make money doing it why not?

First call 4.0"

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

rainer^

Nah, keep walking its right there, just a little further, around the corner.lol

59 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

GFS following the general consensus with overnight stuff

 

GFS and RGEM both also a miss southeast with the defo death band

Here's your next hope

46 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Pretty big differences between the Euro and the GFS in the medium range 

Midrange GFS wants to bury us.Euro not so much

For any given event the number of factors that need to line up for any one particular area to receive heavy snow or ice far exceeds the few things that will cause a forecast to so call bust. The non event forecast for your backyard is always the easy money play.

1 minute ago, Sciascia said:

Does this model have any kind of good track record so far this season?

So many models, so many runs, so many flavors. Your bound to find one that tastes good.lol

15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Trend with 0z guidance thus far is to have that front across N/C. IL tomorrow evening/night to end up further N/NW. 

In turn, means less sleet/freezing rain for NE. IL and more rain, due to a later change over.

Paging Alek...

Can we keep ORD below 12.6" total for the season?

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

My 1” of backside snow call looks high

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

Pingers for dayz

Dont see any 6" of backside snow with this. Just sleet and slop then brief snow and stop.

12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

 

Need a shift SE of 40 miles

Figure this forecast gets adjusted.

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i'll take that over a rainer in the city, 1' cement job far NW burbs special

All rain here rumbles of thunder