Cary67

10 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

Ice is much farther south than the NAM

Needs a few more runs to bring up warm air NAM and Euro shows

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Breaking: GFS finally has a clue.

Trending towards ZR and cold rain event here

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i was in champaign, was probably in the 60s

As an Illini grad he's been mentally abused by his sports teams over the years to think he will always be let down. Its just being projected into his weather thoughts.lol

44 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

12z Canadian significantly backed off with cold side precip. Barely advisory level snows in the deformation area. And not much ice either 

36 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

I'm in between Dekalb and Cary so right on the razors edge! I'll start getting more interested in this later today.

 

Actually still dont think this ever materializes into more then cold rain and a little slop on the back end. Really only have the Euro pointing to a significant snowfall. Waiting for it to cave to blah GFS and lack of cold air CMC. The wacky NAM will fall in line last minute with a poof its gone run inside 24 hrs. However recent data: UKMET and GEFS may hold out some hope.

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Models showing a the changeover zone basically directly overhead for mby. N half of DKB county buried, S half rainer. 

Will send pics

24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It’ll be interesting to watch how guidance trends, with how the main wave is being handled now.


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At this point LOT doesnt seem to give NAM solution much weight. Low probability of heavy ice accretion due to several factors. Heavier precip rates, possible convective element producing sleet, wet bulb temps 28-30F and latent heat making it less likely. Looked for lighter ice accums far NW. Low confidence in deformation band swinging through Sat with snow but kept it as possible. Only thing that seems locked in is a lot of cold rain

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Well and to be clear, I would count a somewhat modest shift from ORD to Gary as a south shift even though it wouldn't have a whole lot of sensible wx impact unless you are near one of the precip type transition zones.

That might make a difference in my area possibly. Shifting to more snow less ice maybe..or more likely dry slotted

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

marginal temps and heavy precip rates say take the under on 1.5" of ice

Loving the Madison call. On bright side Euro has been overamping storms this year at longer range

11 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

If the 12z NAM were to be extrapolated, it would be rain for all of us. 

Once the NAM is within 84 hrs you can pretty much lock it in

33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

RIP.


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Just have the storm date with this as the header. Sorry for the copy right infringement thats sorta yours

At least some ensemble support. Not a bad look at this point

5 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

Lock er in.

Bring out the needles,bring out the thread

I still think you will get 2-4 weeks of a wintry pattern but that may occur in February or even March/April in some diluted fashion. I am feeling more confident that this winter will grade out as average at best and possibly horrendous at worst. Grades will vary on the forum depending on if their yards got hit when we do shift to that wintry pattern. Unlike the NE that can pile up snow 40-60" in a short period of time the Lakes(outside of LES areas) and OV won't hence the great winter grades should already be off the table. Of course some may say one 20" blizzard makes a great winter. Not me..

14 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Ha...more confirmation that I live on a completely different planet than most of the good folks in our sub-forum. 

People's standards are very low, especially since most of us seem to like cold and snow.  Where are the pitchforks and the complaining?  It's like nobody cares anymore.

Last winter was bad...no way around it.  It was only highlighted by some decent snowfall in mid-late Jan and the severe arctic outbreak in late Jan...along with a storm in late Nov that melted fairly quickly because the soil was still warm.  Sure, that was nice...but, the arctic outbreak was not as big of a deal as it could've been, because of the short duration and the fact that it warmed up to 40+F two days later. And December was a disaster, along with most of February. How is that a good winter?  If I lived in your area (using DVN as a proxy), last winter was a C- at best...as there were really only 3 weeks of winter during DJF, from mid-January to early Feb.  If not for the November storm, it would have been a D.  And I'm trying to be generous. 

My personal grade IMBY for last winter is a D-, because you can't have so many crappy weeks that were bad in DJF in order to salvage a good winter, despite the Nov storm, late Jan snow and cold, and a couple unusual April snowfalls that were nice to see but don't really contribute to the winter grade because it stayed light until about 7:30 PM.  Not the same feel when it snows in April. 

The only decent winters we've had in the last 10 years were:

(1) 2010-11 due to GHD I...but even that was a small letdown, as most of the snow melted within 10 days

(2) 2013-14, although Dec was obnoxiously mild

(3) 2014-15 due to GHD II and the cold Feb (but, again, frustrating since Dec and part of Jan were a torch)

So, only 3 decent winters out of 10.  Of course, given the last few crappy winters, I would probably sign up for those three winters in a heartbeat. Even I am starting to become jaded.  And, no, it doesn't mean I'm complaining about GHD I, or the 2013-14 winter.  GHD I was the first time I saw lightning during a snowstorm - an amazing experience. 

It's almost as if a 2-4 week period of solid wintry weather qualifies a winter to be "good".  Where does this thought process come from?  Last I checked, winter is 13 weeks...so, at a minimum, it would be nice if 50% of it were winter.  Not even saying 100%...just a measly 50% is all I'm asking.    

It's all in good fun...but would be nice to see others being as ****** off as I am about the last several years of non-winters.  Everyone seems so jaded...it's very sad. Even in this current horrendous stretch since 11/15/19, people are saying we're just having a bad run, and this happens sometimes. That's ridiculous; a stretch like this is a complete no holds barred disaster...no spinning it any other way.  There is no way that a 6-week stretch like this should even be possible. Even a 2-week stretch like this is a disaster.   

But, most importantly...Happy New Year to cyclone and everyone else, and best wishes to you and your families for a great 2020.

"You can be mad as a mad dog about the way things went, you can curse the fates, but when it  comes to the end, you just have to let it go," Benjamin Button

1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

Indianapolis trying to score 2 in a row about a month apart

7 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

A few snowscape pics from last night in Wausau, WI. Seems like all our posters these days with a few exceptions are from semi and northern IL. Central Wis got a nice snowpack replenisher with this system. Came up here powder chasing again and while the snow was a little wetter than I prefer it was buttery smooth to ski on.

Granite Peak(Rib) looking good. Alpine Valley and Wilmot had their ski season but it was late October into mid November.lol

18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

.1 to .3

Take the small victories when you can. Just like beating NC A&T or is that AT&T

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Looks worse each day somehow 

Just enjoy your 1 to 3" of wraparound.

10 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

07-08 was the epitome of proof that way above avg snow fall can indeed happen despite a lack of the bitter cold seen in 13-14. That season was the exact opposite of what we've had around here last winter and so far this winter with the extremely poor timing of cold/moisture. 07-08 everything clicked in that dept. 

May have been one of my favorite winters here

1 minute ago, vortex said:

Yep.

When you look at the top 30 and bottom 30 total  seasonal snowfall for Chicago, 7 of the snowiest seasons occurred during the 2000s and 3 from the 2000s were the least snowiest.   

Not denying that. Just speculating that gradual warming could be responsible for both the recent above average snow totals and also the decline of snow averages over time as you reach a point where it gets just a bit warm on average to snow in our area. I just think that influence may come a bit quicker than some would like on this forum. At some point when you keep looking at global temp map averages that are almost completely red and yellow with just a couple blue patches it will catch up with you.  But this is for another topic.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

At least we'll be dead by then.

But not your kids. Anyways we shall see. 

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually id say the opositte. Most areas of this subforum have seen an increase, not decrease in snowfall the past 2 decades. Some a substantial increase.

Thats just because more moisture is becoming available further north for areas like Marquette and International Falls. Chicago and MSP have benefitted in the last decade but continued warming will inevitably lead to lower snow totals over time. Beginning with southern areas first then working their way north. Chicago becomes St. Louis. MSP becomes Chicago.  St. Louis becomes  Little Rock. The areas that will benefit the most and the longest will be up along the Canadian border and the provinces of Canada

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

All of the so called “guru’s” have failed this far. Not saying he’s one per say, but will lump him in given he’s almost always talking cold for somewhere.


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Most likely we will still receive that 2-3 weeks of winter sometime between now and late April. The question is when and none of the gurus know nor does anyone looking at models past 2 weeks. One of these times the EPS and the more clueless GEFS will show cold and it will verify but only after all kinds of false positives. 

43 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

zzzzz...

Edit: Should mention that since my last post last week, the GEFS caved to the EPS in showing fairly close to the same as below.

December snowfall prediction of not reaching double digits as a seasonal total looking good. Over/under on January finishing with 15" or less total is now on the table.

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The Midwest got such a head start on the snow season that it will be virtually impossible to set futility records the season.

The futility comment was more in reference to posters stating that winter is done more than actually breaking record minimal snowfall records.