clskinsfan
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Everything posted by clskinsfan
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GFS even keeps the surface below freezing in DC this run. All frozen event from DC north and west. Would be a sleet bomb after a couple of inches I think as depicted.
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No one touched on the Hi Res Euro from last night. But it is an all frozen event out here in the 81 corridor. Snow to ice to dry slot. That is encouraging to see and really matches climo for these type of storms. Edit: And the 12z GFS matches it almost exactly. Decent thump for everyone on this run.
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That was my biggest concern in the long range with all of that blocking on the models. Obviously way too far out there to blow a gasket yet. But something to watch for sure.
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Sorry wrong thread.
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It is on Pivotal.
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Last nights Hi Res Euro had some ice with next weekends storm. That threat isnt over yet. The long range guidance all still looks really good. I dont get the negativity of a few in this thread. The Euro nailed this warm up a couple of weeks ago. There is no reason to think it is wrong about the decent pattern two weeks from now.
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Not trying to be a deb downer. But that is a lot of blocking being modeled over the top. Anyone else worried about storms being squashed IF that verifies.
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I would be fine with it just like that. No rain for us out here. Snow to ice to dry slot. Which would then become a glacier for a few days. It is a decent run.
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The Australian long range MJO forecast was all in during the fall with us going through 7-8-1 in the heart of our best climo. The majority of the spaghetti plots still go through 8 but at a low amplitude. They dont make it to 1 though. I didnt keep records back in 93' 94'. I was in Loudoun then and I do remember it being very icy. I found a pretty good site with write ups on some of the worst storms of that season: https://tornadogenius.fandom.com/wiki/1993-94_United_States_winter_storm_season
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If the MJO makes it to 781 during late Jan early Feb then the long range MJO models would have been spot on. I was looking at them in late Nov and salivating at the thought of that happening.
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Hi Res Euro last night had a pity half inch for those of us west of the Catoctins. At this point I just want to see a flake fall. 12Z GFS has about the same for out my way. Has a nice little 1.6 inch jack for the Frederick, MD area.
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Not just the EPO region but that Scandinavian ridge might be what ends up saving the Atlantic as well. Get it to press the PV a little south and it could be game on.
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Agreed. No SE ridge in sight. Also heading into prime climo means things can pop up in the shorter range and surprise us. After all of these years of doing this I am still convinced that the models are still pretty much useless outside of 5 or 6 days lead time.
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The line matters a ton too. When we were younger we did Carnival, Royal and NCL a lot. Whichever was cheaper. And yes. Some of those cruises were shit shows. We have since moved on to Celebrity and it is just much more laid back. Anyway. Dont want to hijack the thread.
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I must be pretty low than. Because I love cruising. And it is still the best value in a vacation you can get.
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We almost always get more than east of us during coastal storms. It is exceedingly rare when that isnt the case. We jacked out here for 96, 03 and 16. Sometime PSU and the guys up on Parrs Ridge do a little better. But generally we do fine. And our average annual supports that. We definitely do better with a storm that runs up the coastal plain though. That is true.
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Its usually very good. We do awesome with coastals. We can also score from LE streamers and clippers as well. This was just one of those storms where the favored areas didnt get the jack. It happens occasionally.
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It just wont stop out here. Not really expecting much more in the way of accums. But it is still snowing lightly. Just took the dog on a nice long walk. Gorgeous out. Picked up 3.3 inches with the ull. Total for the storm is 8.6 inches. Did WAY better than I expected after the lull we had overnight. Congrats guys/gals to the east. Pretty epic storm for you all!
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Rates have lightened up considerably. But it is still coming down at a decent clip. Really enjoyed this storm.
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DCA has probably broken double digits if that measurement was from an hour ago? I cant ever remember a big storm where DCA got 20% more snow than me. Awesome!
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I always save these radar loops from the good storms. Here is the link if anyone wants it. Just click the download button on the right edge of the map: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-200
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You might still get into this band as moves east. This afternoon has been something else. I was ready to call it at 5.3 inches. And be perfectly happy with that. And I am definitely over 8 now. Crazy.
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Not gonna have a choice. My roads are ridiculous.
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Yes it is. Amazing.
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Still getting pounded out here. I keep thinking the back edge is near and a new band just keeps forming to the west of me. I might top 3 inches with this ull. Crazy.
