clskinsfan

I still see tons of upcoming chances for flakes on the Icon.

Hi Res Euro isnt as good as the regular one. Still a decent hit for the 81 corridor.

its a nice hit for the favored areas. Temps are better than the Euro as well. Thats as far west as I want to see it track though. Even out here.

It is a great look for sure. Temps are a bit iffy at the start verbatim. But it is way too early to be even thinking about that. I would also prefer the phase to happen a bit further south. At least for my area. But exciting run overall

The GFS was a pretty big weenie run for out this way. The only thing I am taking away from it is that an active pattern is coming. I dont think we get shut out in our prime climo period if it really end up being that active.

Damn! Shenandoah Valley bullseye!

If the 6z GFS was to verify I would never doubt atmospheric memory again. It would be a historic few weeks for the Great Lakes region.

Problem is there is really no cold air unless the storm tracks perfectly. If we had some real cold in place I would definitely be more interested.

Yeah. That has heartache written all over it. According to that map I get snow. But i'll believe it when I see it.

This is the biggest problem. All of the cold air is trapped on the wrong side of the NH. I would think the next real threat will be when the pattern relaxes and allows some of that cold air to drop into the conus. We dont need frigid air to snow in Jan/Feb, especially out this way, But we do need the upper levels to be cold at least.

The GFS and CMC are almost identical with the track on their runs. Pretty wild to see at such a long range.

No way we know where that low will end up cutting too yet. We have a gulf low with HP over the top at 78 on the euro. It very well may end up an Apps runner. But we dont know yet.

The look on the Euro at 90 is pretty nice. Juicy lp on the gulf coast and hp over the top. What happens from there we dont know yet. But I will take that my chances with that look in January.

Hi res Euro is a Winchester beatdown:

Wife was out here in the Winchester area running errands. She says the roads are really icy. 28 degrees with freezing rain.

I am actually liking the chances for next weekend. The gfs has started to move toward a workable solution. on a side note I broke my left arm yesterday so excuse the crappy typing over the next few weeks. I bet my typing will still be better than DT's

Had a nice little snow shower here. Hope it makes it to you all in the east.

Hi res Euro has an inch in the usual spots with a little ice on top. It then dry slots us. It also has that same thin band of snow that the NAM has through NOVA and DC on Saturday morning. I still think it is under doing the CAD. As it does take the Shenandoah Valley above freezing for around 12 hours before the bottom drops out again. We are then below freezing until Wednesday afternoon. So plenty of time for my half inch glacier to form. Here is the 10-1 map from the run.

Yeah. It is actually somewhat interesting out here in the Winchester area. Still time for improvement as well.

The 18Z GFS is about the biggest weenie run I have seen in 3 years.

Hi Res Euro is a mix of the GFS and regular EURO. People in northern Md should love it. Verbatim it is a nasty ice storm for the 81 corridor.

That is a pretty nice cold blast after the storm passes as well. Single digits west of town. It would turn whatever falls into concrete.

Hi Res Euro is still a snow to ice to dryslot event. Not as good as 0Z but not a total disaster either.

Cobb data from the 12Z GFS run. Huge drop in surface temps from previous runs: DCA 200118/1100Z 119 16006KT 28.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 14007KT 27.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 15009KT 28.8F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.216 2:1| 0.6|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.28 11| 89| 0 200118/1800Z 126 18009KT 31.5F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 0.229 1:1| 0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.50 13| 87| 0 200118/2100Z 129 17012KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207 1:1| 0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100 IAD 200118/1000Z 118 15007KT 27.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 200118/1100Z 119 14008KT 26.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 15009KT 26.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 16013KT 27.4F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.152 7:1| 0.6|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.24 0| 96| 4 200118/1800Z 126 18012KT 30.3F SNPL 2:1| 0.4|| 0.27|| 0.00|| 0.204 3:1| 1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.44 34| 66| 0 200118/2100Z 129 19012KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 3:1| 1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.57 0| 0|100 BWI 200118/1500Z 123 15009KT 28.3F SNOW 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 200118/1800Z 126 18009KT 31.0F SNPL 7:1| 2.6|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.374 8:1| 4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.57 85| 15| 0 200118/2100Z 129 18011KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.327 8:1| 4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.90 0| 0|100 MRB 200118/0900Z 117 15009KT 28.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 200118/1000Z 118 15011KT 24.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 200118/1100Z 119 14011KT 24.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 12:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 14012KT 24.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 16015KT 26.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.171 10:1| 2.1|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.37 3| 97| 0 200118/1800Z 126 17012KT 27.9F SNPL 6:1| 1.4|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.233 8:1| 3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.60 53| 47| 0 200118/2100Z 129 19010KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 8:1| 3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.62 0| 0|100

PSU touched on it up above. It is REALLY close to big hit here. Definitely worth watching for sure.