Weather Will

I request that managers clean it up in here please….

Can we start a November 2023 thread? 18z GFS is horrible through January. WB long range Canadian has a normal to below normal Thanksgiving with above normal precipitation.

Instead of posting the 1000th 500MB that shows how great it will be in two weeks, I am trying a new approach, my new snow charm arrived today…

WB 6Z EURO…less of a sting for the late week fiasco when even Northern Maine is fringed…hopefully something to track in a couple of weeks. Fingers crossed wave to track in a week or so….

No snow maps worth posting from EPS or Control.

I will have to retire to keep up….:)

101!!!! Oh no….

WB 6Z EPS control….can we get something to trend in the right direction inside 5 days????

I know we have all given up on late week But….WB 18Z EPS is a shift…with a few hits. last picture 12Z.

One glimmer of hope in 12Z GFS fantasy range is that central and eastern Canada much colder after Day 10 this run. That is the thing to track over the next 10 days…how quickly we can get cold enough air back into the east.

Yup, 599 pages of analysis for a cold front….

WB 12Z GFS….primary dies in N. Ohio, and primary coastal pops too little too late for our latitude due to lack of cold air etc…

Looking at the 12Z models for late week….still a cold air issue, but ICON shifted SE with track compared to 0Z.

By the third week of January we should see cold air building in Canada. At least cold enough to snow if not below normal air…. And most of Canada should be snow covered so it can get into the U.S. if we can get the connections (EPO, PNA,) etc. to line up. (0Z EPS first 2 pictures.) Harsh reality is that the latest extended GEFS (which actually did have a signal for the current period) is not showing a signal for another storm until the seven day period ending February 4. Hopefully something will pop up before then but the bottom line is that the CURRENT consensus forecasts of the late January through mid February period are showing that the chances of snow during a portion of our prime climo period are alive and well. Will the advertised pattern deliver? Only God knows…and we will watch and wait.

WB 18Z GEFS…P14

You know folks…. 99.9999% of people are perfectly happy with no snow…. But we continue our insanity of watching/hoping for snow knowing that most of the time we will fail, just the way it is….

Looking ahead to the third week of January… WB 12Z EPS..we are not done yet….

WB 18Z 3K NAM….2023 version of DC being NAM’D.

12Z EPS yawning at snow potential for late week.

12Z GEFS: 3, 6, and 12…

WB 12Z EURO….perhaps it will be correct but seems the model can’t decide between the Ohio valley low and a coastal transfer. By the time it consolidates, it is too far north and off the coast for our latitude. Transfer sooner, closer to the coast then you can worry about temps…

WB 12Z GEFS…..don’t give up yet…

I don’t know, still think track is key. We don’t get snows with primary dying in Northern Ohio and secondary forming over DC…

WB 6Z CFS likes the late January/early February period.

Back to looking for cold air. WB 0Z CFS gives sustained cold starting the period after January 20 through February 20 (with the peak of the cold in the first part of February). EPS also has the EPO going negative at the end of its run around the 20th, We will see but our winter chances are not over yet….