Weather Will

Euro 0z and GFS 6z are north for MLK weekend storm threat. Hopefully not a trend in the wrong direction. Will check GEFS when it comes out.

Agreed. Threat about 9 days away now....all you can ask for is a chance....there are no guarantees nine days out even if all of the indices line up.

I would rather have cold and dry then wet and warm. Let the chips fall where they may. A little luck is needed. Don't think the models factor that in yet, which is why this hobby is fun.

Still must be dreaming on my way to work...WB GFS Clown Map Day 13....everyone can be happy for 6 hours.

Overnight EPS still seems to be showing a chance for snowiness In the 18th-20th period in our sea of warmth.

When I watched this WB EPS 500 mb anomalies in motion, looks like by the 20th the SE ridge is finally getting beaten down, and the western trough with an Arctic connection shifting east as a ridge builds in Alaska.

WB Snow totals.....I know. Ground too warm to stick, blah, blah, blah....But it is better than trying to figure out when the PNA is going to flip in our favor.

Latest EURO WB

Since there is nothing else to track.... latest ICON WB 0z Sat. for Tuesday

NWS Afternoon Discussion on Tuesday: Moving into Tuesday, the trough initially located over the center of the country is expected to amplify and consolidate as a shortwave disturbance descends down the backside of the trough. Exactly how this shortwave interacts with the parent trough will have a large impact on our forecast locally. Given the potential for a complex interaction between these two features, there is a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding the forecast later Tuesday into Tuesday Night. Model consensus currently is that a weak area of low pressure will form over the Tennessee Valley, then track northeast into the Ohio Valley before ultimately transferring energy off the coast Tuesday Night. Some showers will be possible in the zone of low- level warm advection Tuesday into Tuesday Night. However, the mid- upper level trough looks as though it will be quite progressive, so any coastal storm that forms should be well off to our northeast by the time it matures. As a result, precipitation totals aren`t expected to be that impressive, with nearly all ensemble members in both the EPS and GEFS showing under a half inch through the duration of the event. Some cooler air may try to work in on the backside of the system, so can`t rule out the system ending as a little snow north and west of the I-95 corridor. However, that appears to be an unlikely scenario at the moment. Conditions will dry out by Tuesday Night, but upslope snow showers may persist along the Allegheny Front in strong WNW flow.

Looking at the individual EPS members about 6 percent chance if you count the individual members with more than a dusting for Tues.

Comparing the 18Z to 12z GEFS clown snow map mean at 6 days it was a marginal improvement.

In a quick look, EPS still has weak support for a snow storm around next Thursday. I know, grasping at straws.

WB 18Z GEFS snow....couple of big hits in the individual members...i am not punting the second and third week of January yet...

WB 12z EPS see Member 27 for a glimmer of clown map hope.

Everyone is entitled to a forecast if it is based on facts. It is discouraging when the facts point toward a Warmer pattern, but personal attacks on the messengers are not warranted. The reality is that we will never again see 2009- 2010 in our lifetimes based on our climatology. But that does not mean we can’t get a snow storm in the oasis of a crappy pattern sometime before mid-March. That is why I stay in the game every year until the bitter or perhaps still glorious end.

WB 0z EPS Jan 7 upper air: appears there continues to be opportunity during the 7-10 period as previously discussed. I am wondering if the trough east of Hawaii (Assuming that is correct) should translate into more ridging in Alaska than shown...at least there is now something to watch!

WB 6Z GEFS snow mean. 20 percent of the individual members have big hits.

WB EPS Control Day 11...Looks like the week after New Years there is still some hope.

My recollection is that most of the long range forecasts were calling for a warmer December. I was happy to get my two inches in the first three weeks of the month which turned out close to average. What will be interesting is whether we see any sustained cold in January through March which would obviously give us snow hopes during peak climo. WatchIng for any sustained troughing east of Hawaii and for ridging over Alaska. I an also following the MJO. It takes some luck to get snowstorms but we need the cold air first.

Crumbs from the Snow Clown Maps EPS Day 9 12Z WB. (There are actually several members signaling some storminess around January 7-10.) At least it is something for me to check out on the next run in 12 hours...

GEFS mean on the 6th....

Looks like the GFS 18z on the 25th wants to give us some overrunning on the 3rd and a monster Coastal storm to graze us on the 6th. Interesting to see if there will be any GEFS support for that..Merry Christmas everyone!

WeatherBell (Both D'Aleo and JB) indicate that their analog years have it warm around the holiday season. Indicate MJO also was in the warm phases during this time. Latest Pioneer long range and the CPC run is cold for January. I guess we will know in another month if they were right. The theme this year is enjoy the good holiday travel and don't start to panic until about the first week of January if the pattern still looks boring...

General observation looking at the 12 z suite is that we will have temps 5-15 degrees above from Sunday-to about NY eve day depending on the timing of an arctic cold front. As some have recently noted the concern that The warmth will scour out the snow pack and cold throughout Canada during this period seems to be lessening. Now back to Christmas preparations....