Weather Will

Latest from Sterling NWS….keep tracking Th. and Friday. Heading into the latter portions of the work week, a great deal of uncertainty looms regarding the temperature and precipitation forecast. The mentioned cold front remains over the Carolinas while the Mid-Atlantic becomes wedged in as high pressure builds to the north and northwest. As a result, Thursday`s temperatures drop back into the upper 30s to low 40s. Ensemble temperature plots depict quite a bit of spread, particularly on the higher end of the spectrum. As the strong upper trough exits the Four Corners and migrates toward the Ohio Valley, modest ascent ahead of this feature will drive additional rounds of precipitation. Depending on the timing and thermal profiles, some of this may be wintry in nature. Given the stout surface high to the north, this potential for wintry precipitation appears reasonable as shown by the guidance. As southerly warm advection will override the boundary, freezing rain would be a concern in this pattern. However, a number of details need to be resolved first. The entire system eventually exits some time on Friday with possible mountain snow showers on the back side.

WB 12Z EPS heart of the cold centered March 2.

WB 240

WB 12Z EPS 168, slim pickings for storm 1

Well….then there is the control….

WB 12Z EPS….several big hits that would make everyone happy!

WB 12Z EURO freezing rain thru Friday am.

1 pm Th…weak wave moves in and out then wait on next wave which is warmer.

I don’t know if end result will be better yet, but cold air advancing SE faster on WB 12Z EURO compared to 0Z on Wed. Am

Sorry this is banter but we are waiting for EURO. Got out with my free oil change, free new wipers, and free brake fluid…..exceeded expectations. Now we need to find 50-100 miles as depicted by WB GEFS thru 10 days and exceed expectations in the snow department.

I am sitting at the BMW dealer waiting for them to do the oil change and then come back and tell me how much money they want to do $ 100000….of other stuff. I am bored.

I’m afraid to ask but can you clarify?

WB 6Z GFS for Th-Fri

WB OZ EPS compared to 12Z yesterday.

WB 0Z EURO…..this run follows GFS mixed event for Th. -Fri.

Thanks William. Ill try to lower my sky high expectations After President’s Day, the inevitable March to spring accelerates. I am definitely in the camp that says give me a 6 inch plus storm or let’s just go to Spring.

Looking at all of the ensembles today at WB 12Z the highest snow mean is centered in central NY to central PA. Hopefully we will see a shift southward over the next week, but everyone should keep their expectations in check…I will post 12Z tomorrow for comparison.

Here you go…last night’s WB extended GEFS run

WB 6Z GFS still has the ice event on the 24th. Unfortunately rest of the run keeps the cold air well to the North for the rest of the 2 week period. Not a good run. TGIF!

WB 18Z GEFS keeping the hope alive for another day.

WB 12Z GEFS…looking at the individual members actually is good. Several hits to our south. So cold air should make it to our latitude….storm tracks TBD.

WB 12Z GEFS mean unfortunately looks familiar….good news is we have over a week for improvements.

GEFS has trended colder today as we head into the end of NEXT week. As we head toward March, need the below average temperatures first before you worry about storms, but snow chances do increase after Day 8.

WB 0Z EPS… few hits next weekend and then again in early March.

WB 12 EPS. About 9 would be acceptable to most for around March 1. Again, hoping something definitive to track may appear by the end of next work week.