NYCweatherNOW

It never trends in our side but u never know

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The euro has a 990 southeast of Maine for the middle of week system 

988 to be exact

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

It does eventually change to rain on every model

I see that, thanks Ant... it is trending colder that’s all I can away from this! But yes the rain is still there unfortunately 

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Idk mid-levels are pretty cold throughout. 

I think a front thump to a cold light rain may be more likely. Gonna be tough to warm surface with strong high ahead and very low dews to start. 

Yeah I don’t have the specifics but it don’t look like the 850’s go above freezing 

could be some freezing rain or sleet at the end

It does turn to rain but it was a colder run. the high pressure almost turns this into a full blown miller B snowstorm. It’s trending in our way still.

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS much slower like EURO for Saturday. Also pretty far south. 

Stronger high pressure which is a plus!

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

This is definitely going to be a colder run then 06z. The storm blowing up beforehand help keeps the artic high in place. 

High is noticeably stronger too. Let’s see what happens. FWIW which is something I guess the icon was much colder for Saturday’s event

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BTW, pretty cool to get snow this morning (even if just a few flakes) while the midlevels were like +4, lol.

That -4 to -5C layer around 900-950mb plus the low level lift off the ocean with salt nuclei gave some flakes underneath the inversion.

Eps 6z?

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Some really nice trends with this over night. Last week I mentioned a possible overrunning threat around this timeframe. I can just see ch 7 news now, with the screen shot of last Saturday in the 70’s at Central Park compared to next Saturday in the snow lol. 

How was the 6z eps on the low placement for Saturdays event bud?

Wonder why nam 12z run is not out yet?

Eps?

Anyone with more knowledge than an average weenie like me?! Is there a way saturdays storm could turn into a full blown coastal snowstorm?

Honeshly anywhere of white plains New York is outside of New York City. Their weather is just different especially Yorktown heights and north.

40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? 

Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.

Well we don’t want it too cold to suppress our storms now do we?!

I think I want to start posting here more often if the mods don’t mind... it’s so biased on the New York City forum, it’s kinda annoying!

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs colder through 90 hours

It’s warmer after that!

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Eps  is insane in the mid to long range

 

Negative epo with a big ridge in the west 

Eps, GEFS, GEPS all have that ridge out west and a trough in the northeast. Amazing times coming this should produce haven’t seen the models this good all year!

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Also keeps the 850's for this weekends storm cold enough

Could end up snow to freezing rain or sleet

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

Still the biggest snowfall of the season snowstorm followed by heavy rain is coming

Anyway this warm weather is nice but Saturday looks like a snowstorm to us. Maybe ending as some rain regardless looks like the biggest snowfall of the year let’s gooooo

At this time I’d rather have the GFS show me snow than the euro. Snow is coming guys for sure! The question is it going to be huge amounts or just average is still to be answered.

That’s a great GFS 6z run as far is this weekend shows warning snows everywhere

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Next weekend’s setup sucks south of New England still, don’t worry, the NYC metro area will get their chance post 1/20, be patient 

Next weekend looks good for a 3-6 for the New York City area and more as you go north but it looks like that will change to rain and wash it away!

2 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Ant,  how long has the pattern looked to become colder?,  and please don’t take this as a shot to you or anyone  because I love the cold and snow I thrive on it but it doesn’t seem likely 

Bro it’s going to snow! Just let it play out it’s not about pattern it will snow. Just my 2 satoshis

55 cloudy and almost feels muggy out but kinda comfortable at the same time. Can’t wait for the big snows coming up