NYCweatherNOW

11 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

Which means like every other storm that you insist will lead to accumulations in NYC, there will be almost none. 

Come on man I’m not that bad am I? I know I give up late but that’s cause I’m a  

I just have a good feeling this time for the rest of the winter.

48 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I don’t think so. I think that’s just a rumor that’s been around for a while. It’s showing pretty much what the 12z euro is showing. Also in the January 2015 storm NAM was right long range. But that’s just one example. Again, just my amateur weenie opinion.

January 23rd 2016 

euro is exactly what I had in mind. Looks similar to the nam 18z

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z euro colder. Nice 3-6” for CT.

Clownmap?

Does anyone have the ukmet clownmap? 

42 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

A tick colder

It is not colder bro it’s a warm outlier right now. Euro, icon, nam and ukmet are all colder

Just now, Rjay said:

Long range NAM....

Agreed, but hey I’m a cold weenie and I’m taking that run and running with it. Although GFS is going to shut me down now I’m sure let’s see!

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Come on Tonyfeen

It does change to some light rain at the end as the surface warms but still 80% of the storm is frozen can’t deny that!

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Who said the city is getting 6? 2 inches though is a definite possibility. 

I said 3-6 area wide is a possibility. Lower end in the city and northern suburbs could get 6 inches. I’m just going with the trend here. 

Just now, Barman49 said:

If someone could explain how both the Euro & NAM came in colder but you have the LP up in the great lakes and the high goes from NE of us to off the MA coast but somehow the cold air stays longer. How is this happening? Can't be from the low DP or evap cooling.

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk
 

It’s because the primary is coming in weaker, decreasing the warm air invasion. 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the city is not getting 6 from this.  Maybe 2 to possibly 3 inches.   (which would be a huge win)

3-4 is not out of the question if this thing trends a little colder. It’s very cold and dry before the storm moves in. And the gradient between the dry air and precipitation could halt any warm air advection before we thump 3-4 inches of snow! It’s happened before it could happen again. 
3-6 meaning region wide not Central Park!

11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Same result as 12z. Worse for basically everyone not in the boros or Nassau 

What are you talking about! It’s for sure colder. 

Nam is basically an all snow event!

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Oh yes you do.....

He loves hot dogs he’s a weenie

I’m going to go on a limb here and say we’re going to start getting a lot of snow soon. Yo me this is the type of pattern that’s just cold enough but not too cold to suppress our storms. That’s just my gut to be honest... but cmc and gfs both have the storm for next week and it’s not cutting or out to sea. It’s kinda shredded but it does eventually redevelop off the coast of Cape Hatteras. Let’s see what the euro says for next weeks storm, Saturday's event looks like a minimal snow event changing to rain on all models now!

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

not in the city by the time precip arrives temps will be close to or above freezing - the further west of the Hudson River you go the better the chance of 2 - 4,,,,,,,,,IMO

The models don’t really account for the evaporative cooling since it will be very dry when the snow comes in, and than once the heavier batch comes in we should cool down some more from dynamic cooling. Half of the precipitation here falls as snow in my opinion. Trenton and south is snow sleet mix turning into rain. 2-4 is a good bet for the city proper

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Are you in Armonk or NYC metro? I have seen you post both...

I live in armonk but I work in the city, but my parents live in the Bronx. It’s complicated. I think still this is 2-4 in the city

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a dusting to an inch for the city and coast before the changeover unless the precip comes racing in.

I don’t think we only get a dusting here only. This is a 2-4 inch snow to rain event in my opinion. No model has a dusting only

I would give it until February 10th to sort of give up on winter. It’s still early

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Are we outside the NAM's range? I need a weenie model to cheer me up.

By tomorrow we will be

15 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

 

So far this season you have been far too optimistic with your snowfall forecasts. It is usually about the same time you give your prediction that the models start showing a warmer solution and bringing in more rain. Not to gang up on you, but what did you do to anger Old Man Winter this year? Next storm let's hold off until your 2-3 day range to see maybe you have a string of bad luck this season. 

I’ve been saying this is a 2-4 inches followed by rain. I don’t like the setup. I do like the cold for a quick snow event followed by rain unless the precip gets shredded. If it comes in like a wall we’ll get a decent thump

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

To be fair the real pattern change doesn’t start until after the 20th. We are currently reshuffling the pac to a better look. If it were to snow Saturday it would be a bonus before the pac improves. The wheels of change are already in motion as tomorrow will be the last warm day for a while. 

Let’s be honest weather isn’t exact science and models are usually wrong. Past 2-3 days I don’t believe it

GFS IS TRASH!

Eps 6z?

51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's not purely arctic and winds off the relatively warm water will change it quick-I'd expect an inch or less right on the south coast of LI, NC and NJ coast unless something changes

This is a 2-4 inches of snow in my opinion. It’s a good thump followed by rain! You know models always underestimate dynamic and evaporative cooling that’s a fact. So whatever the models show the rain snow line, take it down another 20 miles at least south.

7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

a little help guys,,,,,SWFE ??? Whats this mean or can you explain ? thanks in advance

South west flow event