jaydreb

Incoming on Euro!

Some nice hits on the GEFS next weekend.

The CMC just dumped over a foot of snow in your neighborhood. There may be reasons to worry, but the CMC isn’t one of them.

NE MD pummelled!

In DC, about 5” are from the WAA.

And the RGEM swoops in for the save!

And here comes the panic. We were riding high during happy hour and one NAM run sends us crashing down.

Seems like a pretty wide spread at such short range.

We just need the Euro to kick off the party!

You know it’s never that easy.

Yep but at least NAM has already laid down 6-8” over a wide area.

Yeah, I remember that. I guess they’re in a tough spot and can’t win sometimes.

I thought so too but apparently everyone else has no problem with them.

Apparently we don’t like them and should go elsewhere since we made comments about their graphic.

Huh? I literally just said that I liked them.

I think that’s actually what they are trying to say, but the graphic is a little confusing. I like CWG and think they do a good job overall. They are usually pretty conservative about snow events - which is a wise thing around here.

They do, but saying there is a 50% chance that the forecast will bust is confusing.

I think boom/bust makes sense, but saying 30% chance of boom, 20% bust just confuses things, because it gives the appearance that there is a likelihood that there forecasted range (4-8”) won’t be right. It might make more sense to just give a forecast and state a confidence level (high/medium/low) rather than putting percentages on the boom/bust. They do a good job of conveying uncertainty overall.

Feel like we need one of these in here. Pretty much sums things up. EPS says over 3” is all but certain and over 6” is likely but not a done deal.

FWIW, EPS definitely wetter than op for DC area.

From Was Post/Cap Weather: Forecast totals If the storm’s second wave materializes, which is dependent on a new coastal storm developing quickly near the North Carolina coast, snow will continue to fall into Monday or even Monday night and early Tuesday. Totals could exceed half a foot, possibly reaching double-digits in inches in some areas. But, if the coastal storm forms either too far north, or too far off the coast, the additional accumulations will be limited to the few inches from the initial wave on Sunday. • Based on all of the model information and our forecast experience, we believe a moderate 4-to 8-inch snowstorm is the most likely scenario in D.C. area for this event, although we cannot rule out 8 to 12-plus inches if the second wave materializes or just 2 to 4 inches if it does not and the first batch of snow turns out to be lackluster.

Seems reasonable IMO. Glad to see Wes on board.

Yes, for sure everyone is concerned. That’s the way we roll in the mid-Atl. Mods basically had to close the last thread because of it.

Amazing how far apart the GFS and Euro are this close the the event. Also amazing how Euro and GFS have basically changed places in terms of snowy vs. non-snowy (for some areas).