jaydreb
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Everything posted by jaydreb
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Yes and no. Look at the difference in precip for VA between the 18z GFS and 18z Euro.
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I don’t know what to think anymore. Guidance is all over the place and we’re like 24 hours from onset. I think just stop looking at models and just let the chips fall.
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Round 1 too north? Round 2 too south?
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Euro only caves to the NAM when it’s bad for us.
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It’ll be there for Wave 2, when we watch the good stuff slide by to the south.
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Yeah, I get it. We want the Euro to be the most juiced, not the least. And of course we have to worry about trends.
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Ok fair point. Blend these then. EDIT: Amazing how far apart GFS and Euro are with respect to precip in central VA.
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Sounds like too much doom and gloom. Blend these 3 models and most of us are happy, right?
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Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think that a run to run change of like .15” of QPF is a major difference. EDIT: I guess if you multiply it over 3 runs then it’s an issue.
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Huh. Seems like most other guidance has Wave 2 as the stronger one.
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Lol, we’re going to be too south for Wave 1 and too north for Wave 2.
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The second wave seems to be the main show. Let’s hope that hits most of us squarely.
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The first wave. Lol this map is all over the place.
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Such a narrow band of snow. Sheesh.
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This is what it looked like at the end. Maybe another inch or two.
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18z vs 12z
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It’s almost identical to the 12z run, just slightly less precip.
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Still snowing a little when the run ended.
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Looks like we do on Thursday evening. Looks sweet.
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The totals in PA include some snow from Tuesday.
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I saw this and verbatim it looks to favor the southern areas. But you’re right that it is north of its prior run.
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Looks like it runs south, no?
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Onset is well under 72 hours. Gotta think this is in the Euro’s wheelhouse.
