JakkelWx

28/10 here now. 

The temperature drop after the D6 cutter is just obscene.

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Now if we end up with an entire winter of -AO/-NAO...I mean it's gotta be the solar minimum, right? We haven't had practically wall-to-wall -AO/-NAO since 2009/10...which, oh btw, was also a year after the solar minimum? Lol If February indeed works out well, I'll be even more convinced!

I just thought of that as well. It's the 11 year cycle of epic winters!

Just now, CAPE said:

@JakkelWx

Did you notice Mount Holly went advisory for here? Not that it matters, but an indication of the uncertainty. Our country is expansive N to S, but we are both very close to Queens Anne's county, which has a WSW, and the forecast snow amounts are the same.

I did notice that. They are still going with an initial 4-6'' so that's reasonable to me. Maybe the RGEM is on to something and suddenly in the end we both get much more snow than anticipated. That would be the biggest score in years!

Just now, CAPE said:

HH GFS was kind of a shit run overall though. 

It has been the worst of the models for here.

Yeah, we ain't getting much more than 2-5'' after the initial thump besides a couple inches maybe on the backside and they don't normally work out. 

We seem to be having a lot of PNA spikes show up as we get closer in time. It may be disappointing to see a -PNA on the mean there but it washes out any brief PNA spike that might be in there. And that block is hella strong, just a little east of ideal.

That is pure model porn.

4 hours ago, HighStakes said:

Teleconnections continue to look good moving forward on Euro ensembles. AO and NAO remain firmly negative. EPO goes negative through much of the run. WPO goes negative. PNA remains firmly negative but that is not too bad considering the other indices look really good. Things could be setting up for a solid late winter run. 

Can you post them?

@CAPE Ready to track more storms? I remember when I said I wouldn't be tracking anything in February. Pepperidge farm remembers.

Downgraded to an advisory here for 4-6 inches. Not bad

36/8

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

The NAM is in a whole other world in the upper levels and it's low placement is directly over the convection in the Atlantic. Not even the HRRR is that ridiculous. I mentioned this morning, it's either going to score a major coup and every other piece of guidance will be off the rails, or it's on an island won't come back until it's basically beginning the transfer. The WAA piece is at least still pretty solid. 

The NAM had a much better idea for the December storm because it was less tricky, it got lucky and scored a coup. These hybrid "Miller C" storms with a strong WAA and then a transfer are throwing the NAM off for some reason.

Man that is an ugly dryslot, but it's better than seeing 35 degree rain melting all the snow for 12 hours straight. 12k NAM is 12km of dryness

NAM other than 06z is ever so slightly ticking colder and it stays snow longer and longer.

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

34/11

Probable outcome for my yard-

Cold powder to wet snow, sleet, snizzle, and drizzle, a dryslot, then some rain, wet snow and maybe cold powder on the back end.

Let's git it.

Some rain = how much? Seems like after last nights model hiccup things went more favorable for us again. I got a little too anxious and was even sweating in my shower.

Any sleet is better than rain.

The 12z euro looked a little better here I think. 

Just now, CAPE said:

Hugging the crap out of the Canadians.

I read on another forum that the CMC and the RGEM are both too amped based on current OBS and should be taken with a grain of salt. This means the low tucks in too far west

I wasn't expecting the GEFS mean to look this good

Snow finally stops at hr 96 here but I'll take it

Lol its still snowing at hour 90 on the CMC.

Just now, osfan24 said:

That's certainly interesting and a significant trend.

One more tick towards more ns interaction would likely mean a huge hit for everybody, and then suddenly the RGEM wouldn't be such a fantasy anymore...

The GFS looks like it has become the latest model so far to shift south. We'll see what it does from there