JakkelWx

Snows itself out over much of the area.

Euro CCB 

Just now, catoctin wx said:

I dunno ya’ll. this doesn’t look like snow to me. I’m thinking bust




.

Might be some high ratio powder in that cloud

Tonight's 00z euro will be the most important euro run of our lives!

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s a hypothetical situation 

hypothetical 240 hour snow? What did he say?

Who was the troll in the main thread?

Nice to see PSU is still worried about suppression, makes me less worried about mixing 

The 12z GEFS mean snowfall is absolute garbage here.

Side note for my above post: If the GFS transferred its 700 mb and 850 energy even just 6 hours sooner from the primary to the coastal, it would be all/mostly snow for literally everyone.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The GFS is massively different (warmer) with the whole thermal structure over the northeast and even the ohio valley starting at 48 hours and IMO its screwing up EVERYTHING after.  The "error" IMO in the temps is driving the primary AND the coastal front further north.  At 84 hours GFS has the 850 isotherm along the PA line and the NAM/RGEM/Euro has it down in central VA.  Who do you trust with thermals here?  That shifts EVERYTHING north.  That said the GFS is still "getting there".  Look at last 3 runs trend. 

 

I am impressed with the 12z GFS so far. Ignoring the thermals issues the upper air maps argue for snow almost straight down to the SLP.

z850

Just now, mattskiva said:

I would literally pay for a forum where only the mets could post - even though it would mean I couldn't post.

The amount of bad analysis from non mets is ... well, I was going to say stunning, but probably more accurate to say 'typical'.

 

Some people keep making the same mistake getting sucked into the ptype and thermals on the GFS.

Just now, LP08 said:

This may be 1 frame to many but yeah.

 

That would be cold powder before gradually turning more wet. Cold temps out ahead and if anyone gets into a weenie band during WAA they could be in for a surprise.

8 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Most important euro run of our lives coming tonight!

Most important euro run of our lives coming today?

Just now, mappy said:

i'm so confused, is this your first coastal? expect what always happens under the circumstances. 

I am only looking for big dog BECS

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Thanks, good info.

This is a complex situation (as usual). If the NA vortex was holding the confluence in place longer my area might do ok with a west track/transfer deal, but unfortunately things are loosening up top with the block, that vortex is exiting, and this system is a slow evolving one. Hopefully the front end can deliver 2-4", but beyond that, not liking what I see on guidance.

But CAD trends better in time.

Just now, clskinsfan said:

12? It is a 2 day event. Much closer to the Euro. 

12 hours of nice thumpage for the eastern shore 

The canadian is a nice thump. 12 hours of mod-heavy snow

Most important euro run of our lives coming tonight!

There is a clean phase on the GFS this time. Happens a little too late.

The GFS did make another step towards a cleaner phase. Has been for a couple runs now

Baby steps towards the euro. I am mostly satisfied with 00z suite so far.