This October finished with an NAO value of +0.93, an AO value of +0.413, and a PNA value of +0.21. What you are seeing below is all the years that October featured a positive AO, NAO and PNA at the same time.
I think that December will be somewhat favorable for winter weather in the eastern U.S. Slight troughing in the Gulf of Alaska still exists and ridging along the west coast, however there are still lower heights than average in eastern U.S. and would provide decent chances if it came to fruition. But I think December this year will be the hardest month to forecast as there are a lot of conflicting signals regarding the setup of the atmosphere, for example blocking and SSW impacts, but December can go either way.
January looks to be a more moderate and ambiguous month, especially as we head into February with high-latitude blocking beginning to develop decently. The presence of this blocking allows for colder air to penetrate the E US even with lower than average heights along the west coast and Alaska.
Meanwhile, February looks to be the most favorable month for the eastern U.S. There is a strong blocking signal with prominent confluence over Nova Scotia, which would lock in cold air. Lower than average heights in the western U.S would allow for the STJ (Sub-Tropical Jet) to open up, which would lead to a high probability of overrunning events. Overall, this month looks to have the highest probability for a major storm. March also looks favorable with a strong cold air feed into the central united states with slight NAO blocking. Similar to December, the anomaly scale goes up to 35m, which means that the signals for any atmospheric feature are weak. Of all of the months throughout this coming winter, February has the strongest signal for cold air infiltration into the E US with anomalous NAO blocking like a lot of other mets are saying. It looks like there is probably not going to be any long periods of unfavorable patterns for winter weather.
What's different about this winter is that the past few years, December has been thrown out as a decent winter weather contender. This winter, NYC and the Mid-Atlantic sub-forum has a higher than usual chance to see a big winter this year, which I am rooting for, because the NAO has been positive for many years.
I still like what i am seeing as far as now.