Malacka11

Huh. Yeah, if you discount those 24+ inch values, the would-be storm becomes a lot more believable.

What's the latest on the Monday-ish time frame? Haven't had time to check the models or anything yet today.

Absolute U N I T of a storm. It's strange to imagine that the locally crazy snow totals may not have even been the most impressive thing about GHD I.

Wow...

The ICON agrees, though it takes the system further west

I hear you and raise you this hilarious CMC output from last night: Obviously this was just some laughable model fluff (if only it weren't), but simply out of curiosity, has such a widespread event ever occurred in the history of this country?

Honestly. It feels like we just resumed February of last year or something.

18z gfs is once again slightly more organized than previous runs regarding Thursday-Friday... At least it seems like it to the naked eye. It's definitely not-black and-white map like it was a few days ago...

It's still snow in November

Thank you very much

Thanks a bunch chief, that's what I thought it was, I was just confused about whether the GFS is the original model with no altered parameters or if it's just one of the GEFS ensemble members. Thank you for clarifying

I concur. I have a question, perhaps you can answer it: What's the relationship/correlation between the GFS and GEFS? I know this is a very basic question, but I've been wanting to ask it for a while because I feel like I'm missing something.

It do be like that sometimes...

Agreed. Tonight's model runs will be exciting...

Because I have a tendency to believe anything blue Also, I mean believe as in "mayhaps worthy of a glance", not "separate-thread discussion worthy" lol

Just came to comment on this... the GFS and its ensemble seem to bite, but I'm waiting on some other models to produce something noteworthy before I believe...

That's ok, today's wishful-thinking snowstorm would pale in comparison to this monstrosity 222 hours out (/s):

1. 2015 Jan 31st-Feb 2nd "Superbowl" blizzard: Definitely my #1 snowstorm because it had a little bit of everything in it: long-term predictability, but also worries of underperformance / Snowfall for like 30 hours straight, but also blizzard conditions and decent snowfall rates at times. Not to mention, after reaching the "low point" (if one can even call it that) in forecasting, calling for maybe 8 inches like a day or two out... well, after that, preliminary totals started rocketing skywards again. The initial warning called for 10-14 inches of snow, but my area, in particular, got lucky, with almost twenty inches of snow on the ground by Sunday night. That was a no bull****, spread-the-wealth type of storm; the exact type of event I'm hoping to experience again this year, with a little bit of luck (Hey, one can dream ) 2. 2011 February 1st-2nd Blizzard: Everything about this storm was awesome, and in many ways, I have it to thank for getting me interested in winter forecasting. I still remember when my school's principal announced to us, in the last half hour of that Wednesday, that there was a potentially historic blizzard poised to impact the area (suddenly the small but quickly-falling flakes outside looked a lot more ominous) and that school would be out for likely at least the next two days. On my way home like a half hour later there were already a bunch of car crashes, even though only an inch of snow had fallen at that point. My only regret with this storm was that it occurred largely at night. Without a doubt, it was the most intense snowstorm I've ever experienced. Hopefully, I'll experience at least one more to rival it. The rest of the storms I could name are all relatively lame, and I don't remember much about them, but I still think I'm very lucky to have experienced two blizzards with 20+ inches of snow, within ten years of living here, when there are people elsewhere who haven't seen a snowflake in their lives.

Possibly active weather pattern through the first half of November, eh?

True. I guess us Northwestern sub people will just have to bench it and let the OV take a big one for themselves. I think I could live with that... maybe, for one event

Preach

Who knows, maybe we'll get a genuine crowd-pleaser this year. I may be mistaken, but it's been a while since we've had a share-the-wealth style event. The drought has to end sometime, all it takes is one storm...

Dang. Hearing all of these stories from others really puts Chicago winters into perspective... even in a bad year, we usually have at least one warning-worthy event in Northern Illinois I'd say (correct me if I'm wrong, I've only lived here for ten years lol). You're definitely right; the snowstorm itself is only half the fun. It's the days before, with a significant event becoming more and more likely with every model run, that really crown a storm. I feel cozy and wintery just thinking about it.

Yeah, it's looking... interesting.

Hey, no matter what, It'll be nice to have something to forecast again