Malacka11

Mark my words. By 00z Tonight the Monday clipper hybrid will shift back south. Guaranteed. /S

12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I think you will regret that instantly. Try for a polar plunge or a snow angel. Lol. I'm definitely going to do the infamous boiling water to ice crystals. Sorry to get off topic

Hey... That's actually a great idea! I've seen so many videos of it but doing it myself would be something else. As long as I don't scald my a** in the process. 

My plan is to go out in a t-shirt on my driveway for thirty seconds so that I can appreciate just how cold it really is, simply because who knows when we'll be able to experience it again (if this outbreak is really as severe as is currently shown to be possible). /s

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea we are a long ways from knowing where this is going to track. Gfs being gfs bouncing all over. I feel I80 north will be the jackpot for this. Just a hunch. But I seen time and time again where these trend south in time but this isn't solely a clipper and more of a hybrid so hard to say

CMC remains steadfast south. 

GFS even farther north with car C... for now.

5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I feel pretty good about this one for the Chicago metro. A bit unnerving the northern shifts in this afternoons guidance, but as we saw with the last two systems, south trend inside 72 hours is the way to go

I concur. Besides, the northward shift isn't universal (right? lol). IIRC, the FV3 was actually to our south with the heaviest snow. I think we're looking as good as any city for now. 

All I know is that Monday's clipper and the subsequent arctic outbreak have the potential to kick ass if either is as strong as currently shown to be possible. 

Next Monday still looks like it could be a bit stronger than the average 1-2 inch clipper. 

Flake size has dramatically increased in the past ten minutes or so. 

Snowing at a decent rate here in Aurora now. I, too, have my fingers crossed that the rain doesn't intrude too far north tonight. 

Backyard snowcover starting to look like a photo negative. It's rather pretty.

7 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Any images?

Next Monday looks fairly interesting for (atm) northern sections of the subforum...

3 hours ago, Baum said:

With all due respect you had a prof met who works for the NWS out of LOT and within shouting distance of your location say he 's hoping for 4-6" and your talking about a shut out...the negativity is over the top sometimes. It may bust. It happens. But after tracking for 5 days and throwing in the towel as it commences without support is uncalled for. I'm guessing you'll fall into the 3"-6" window.

I think you may have misunderstood my post, which I take blame for. I meant "temporary shutout" as in like a fifteen-minute period with no snow in it, NOT that it wouldn't snow at all anymore. I wasn't really trying to be negative at all; I was merely commenting on the fact that at that time, I was outside of the radar-indicated snow zone but it was still snowing, and that it might cease snowing any minute. Again, retrospectively, I see that my original comment was worded like sh*t, so my bad for the misunderstanding.

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

03z HRRR brought the better band a bit farther south in the LOT cwa.

On another note, Indy really looks like it's going to struggle with waa for a prolonged period of time.  

I still have a hard time believing that Aurora will see more than 4-5 inches... but I'll take it.

Kind of on the fringe of shutout here... but so far it's still snowing. Every minute of snow is a good minute

Edit: temporary shutout

Our storm is still there on the 00z GFS.

Just now, UMB WX said:

Thought we could baby step a bit better than that on the GFS tonight. 

Yep. Tonight, the baby sat instead of stepping. Oh well, I think we can all agree that tomorrow is the day things start getting serious. At least the GFS didn't trend worse again. 

It's absolutely awesome to consider that after this weekend's system exits there's another noteworthy event literally less than 100 hours out.

Just now, ChiTownSnow said:

if i recall correctly, GHD1 did this exact same thing about this far out.  hopefully its a sign :}

Got a question: (I really didn't track weather much until like 2014 maybe, so I have fairly little recollection of GHD 1 other than it being awesome once the snow started) at roughly what point did it become apparent with GHD 1 that 20"+ amounts were possible? Was it feasible from the start? Or did become a trend later on? Also, did the storm shift to its actualized area of effect shortly before the day it hit or was N IL always the jackpot zone?

'Pologies for the off-topic comment. 

Just now, ChiTownSnow said:

what impact (if any)  does this little system ahead of it have on the main system?    

FWIW, it's farther north on the GFS, by a little. 

Jesus. Really curious to see if this is the ICON being the ICON or if a bump north will be tonight's theme.

Just now, mimillman said:

Welcome, and may we both do well in our great city.

Nothing like a good 84 hour NAM map to kick off the 00z suite. 

The second way to kick it off is with the ICON's decent shift north. 

yeeeeeeuh let's go Chicago gang! I can already feel this storm getting ready to drop three feet on us in sheer awe of our numbers

Really though, it's the perk of living near/in a big city. Nice to see more Chicagolanders

I'd be satisfied with 4-5 given we have many opportunities to come. I'd gladly take more of course