Malacka11

I'm trying to upload pictures of the 1st cell but I can't

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

The best combo of low level shear and low cloud bases should be near the warm front as the cells move in. In Chicagoland this should end up being roughly along and south of the I-90 corridor. The lake will modify the warm front a bit. 
 

Not guaranteed to see anything but you shouldn’t have to go too far. 

Sounds good. I appreciate the information!

4 minutes ago, pen_artist said:

Im still novice as it pertains to forecasting but I dont know if you follow Bob Waszak on Twitter but I'd say he's one of the more legit chasers in the area and he highlighted these two areas

 

Thank you so much!

Guys someone please answer, I woke up quite late to plan this super well. If you were going to set up ahead of these storms, would you drive north or south of Aurora? 

Might have to take a drive for the first time if something promising occurs in the near vicinity.

Went out for a run today today from Wheaton towards Chicago; on the way out we passed a flooded parking lot with a single car in it, whose owner was frantically trying to figure out what to do, given that his car was standing in about a yard of water. on the way back, only the car remained, but by then only the top eight inches or so of it were visible. it was a smaller sedan but still, I've never seen anything like it. Must suck for the owner.

Apologies if it's been said somewhere already and I missed it, but how are temperatures looking for the latter half of the month?

I wonder exactly what percentage of the people who have lost family members to this illness hold the opinion that 0.02% isn't a high enough death toll to warrant our current preventative measures. 

17 minutes ago, madwx said:

its not the number of deaths that's the scary part its how easily it could overwhelm the hospital system, its why we are doing this. 

Right. That fatality rate would be a lot higher if we can't care for everyone that we need to. 

Just now, Hoosier said:

Don't have the link but I remember reading that wind spreads the virus farther.  So in particular if an infected person sneezes or coughs without covering up and the wind direction is right, you might not be safe even if you're 20 or 30 feet away. 

Damn. That's actually the opposite of my assumption. Thanks for the info, kind negates my point lol

As a distance runner, I'm constantly out training in nearby parks and forest preserves. I went out today to check out a new area and I have to admit I was genuinely surprised by the number of people there. Like the lot was at least two-thirds full... an uninformed individual would never suspect that there's a pandemic sweeping through the country from that scene. 

On the flip side, I imagine that the risk of contagion at preserves is somewhat lower, simply because outside of the parking lot, you're much more spread out. If hobby-jogging or family walks serve as an outlet to prevent other, more rash behaviors, then I suppose it's a good thing. 

Side note: I wonder what effect wind speeds have on an airborne disease's ability to spread. It would be interesting to see what sneezes/exhalations look like on a windy day like today versus, say, in a supermarket. 

This stuff is sticking to branches like super glue. Wow.

If protesters in Hong Kong can clear routes for first-responders, then it can be done here too. Christ. 

I just got turned away from my dentist appointment for having a fever of 99.8°F.  

Got home and measured myself. I don't have a fever. 

This lady yesterday who claimed to be an EMT argued to me her firm belief that COVID 19 had already spread throughout the entire world long before the supposed patient zero was infected. Her evidence included notions such as "lots of people getting sick with bad colds this winter", including herself after she went on vacation.

She tried telling me that all a bad case of COVID-19 really is, is a bad case of pneumonia, but when I asked her what her point was, she sort of just looked at me in disbelief and said it was nice talking to me. I guess she didn't realize that what she was saying argued against her point. I know it sounds a little contrived, but I swear on my life that's exactly how the conversation went.

I'm not trying to be belittling in the slightest, but there's a difference between driving ambulances and studying diseases.

I know nobody gives a damn about what my accuweather app says, but just in case somebody does, Aurora's up to 8-12 now. Maybe this is some crossover episode between two universes and in the other one this is a major blizzard. Dunno anymore. 

I'm just hoping that this whole thing shows up tomorrow fifty miles north of what models predict because there's definitely not gonna be any northerly correction at this point lol

Now we start the trend back up at 18z bahahaha

AccuWeather just released a notification about this storm "possibly being the largest of the season", with 6"-10" amounts. Bit late to the party I'm afraid

Just now, King James said:

WI posters really got boned with this one

Dude yeah. Like, it's one thing that it's trending south of Chicago and all, but the fact that the heavy snow was once modeled in Wisconsin is mind blowing.

This isn't a shot at the model -this is me trying to further get everyone's hopes up- but the storm has regained some substance on the 00z ICON

I think we all need to take a step back and relax. At least for those of us in Chicagoland. We've done it. We're in the game. 

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is the first time all winter that I have felt it's more than just a hail mary pass to get 6+ imby.  There have only been 1 or 2 other times where it was even a remote possibility if everything went right, but I would almost give it 50/50 odds at this point. 

Temps are marginal of course, especially through most of Tuesday.  Duration looks fairly long though with periods of moderate/heavy rates possible and a period of lake enhancement.  So overall I am optimistic for at least a moderate hit in the worst case scenario, with potential to get toward major category.

I feel like you and I switched souls now. Suddenly, I'm the one worried about the weakening trend while you are the voice of confidence. 

Kinda worried about how the ICON just shit itself ngl

Genuine question, can someone please explain why the Kuchera method outputs more snow on the Euro, but less on most other models (for this storm)?