Holston_River_Rambler

That cell definitely looks stout on satellite: The setup is interesting to me since there seem to be 2 lines of more intense convection with one? MCS (colder cloud tops and radar are how I'm distinguishing that) that seem to merge over the OH river on the KY and IL border. I've seen this before with two distinct bows and a gap in the middle and always wondered what the cause for that was.

This sucker is hauling it. 1 - 2 hours ahead of HRRR. Always liked MCSs as long as they don't have a ton of wind. As MRX mentioned, HRRR has been more consistent with at least timing, while other models like NAM and RGEM have already lost it entirely. HRRR gives the northern limb a boost as it swings through KY and TN, will be interesting to see if, regardless of timing, this predicted aspect of it develops. Radar looks auspicious for that, as of now.

Satellite loop of today's storms:

This was all that was left of the rotation over Clinton in the radar loop above, when it moved over Knoxville, just north of my area (in a one minute time lapse): Radar loop at the same time:

The cell in Knox now has a warning too. Decent hook on radar and each of the three cells behind the Knox county one look like they may have a little hook on radar too:

Tornado warning in Hancock County and a couplet just north of Knoxville:

Still just a model forecast, but interesting discussion of model skill, other SST questions in this thread. Thought there might be some interest here.

30 day precip update:

Found this off a blog about Iowa weather: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2019/03/07/FINAL-FLOOD-OUTLOOK-AN-EYE-OPENER?fbclid=IwAR3p0YRgKuuc3wOuRE7UZj1tN-Pl9C1vIJyDSPgaHAWI_mDBb7KjbbYyWxM Not exactly sure how specifically this could/ would impact our western areas and areas further down the Mississippi, but I can't image it is good news to have a big, quick melt in those midwestern areas where so much snow has fallen and then have more rain in our TN upstream areas.

Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition, but the GFS/ Euro showing a way that a system between the 14th and 16th could get hung up across the area. Still a ways to go, but this has been shown as a possibility on several model runs now.

Precip. is booking it across the area this AM. That shortwave ain't fooling around.

Looks to me like it is already worse than pretty much every model predicted for today, even 6z suite this AM: 0z ARW2 wasn't too bad with it's progression. I understand the yellows/ oranges on NEXRAD aren't exact equivalencies to a models 6/3 hr precip. or projected radar depiction, but still, those look like pretty high rates moving in.

So how about that Euro overnight? Looks like it may be drier for this system in East TN than even yesterday's, if the Euro is right. A general 0.2 - 0.7 across both watersheds. 6z 12k NAM further north, but 3k develops the convection parallel to the Gulf and keeps higher totals further south like the Euro. The key seems to be just where that convective precip. develops. If it is further south and parallel to the Gulf it might cut off some of the precip in our area. Will it be right? Will heavier precip. seemingly magically appear on radar as the system moves in? I guess we'll know tomorrow.

And of course now the shortwave is pulling this morning's rain further north. I give up.

FWIW 6z NAM pretty crappy this AM: Forecast: Reality: Obviously this doesn't mean it will be right or wrong about the next system, but like the training over Knoxville, models still really struggling even as an event is happening. WV GOES 16 does seem to hint that there could be some additional development NW of current precip, but not much as of now. Thankfully as of this AM the trend over the past 3 runs on NAM is for a system with a more southerly axis of heavier precip. As the above comparison shows though, who knows what will actually verify. Euro still south too with the heaviest rain: It also seems to be overdoing the northern extent of precip this AM, unless there is something radar is missing, always a possibility with the plateau. 0z Euro also tries to give our eastern areas a dusting next Friday with a clipper type system. Any guesses on how long it teases us?

https://www.weather.gov/mrx/hydroevent?platform=hootsuite MRX write up

Last 30 days for perspective

Updated NWS 7 day precip map to include the last training over Eastern Valley:

I was able to see the video from MS yesterday when another person posted a link to the site in question, but after the ads I saw on that site yesterday, I won't go to anything labelled meteotube unless I have to. "Very original site". Yes. Yes it is.

I know there are still major problems down stream, but for Knoxville the creeks are quickly receding. OH and TN Valleys need every dry break we can get!

Didn't realize weathermodels had this until your question prompted me to look.

Videos of flooding in Knox county from Knox county mayor.