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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's got a 1062 high at the end of its 6z run!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tropical convection around the globe definitely looks CODish this AM with slight emphasis in MJO regions 4/5/6. To be fair, I've not been checking it a ton since we've had a few tracking events, but there seem to have been a few periods where there was really only convection in one area. Every area has a bit this AM. GEFS really wants to take that tropical forcing to the Western Hemisphere in the long range: EPS supports the status quo: IOD, according to Eric Webb's post on wxtwiter is weakening: and he thinks this will open the door for more western Pacific tropical forcing as time goes on. I guess we'll see how it develops but like I said above, interesting to see convection everywhere for now. Some of you may remember NCHailstorm had a good record with the MJO last year. That person is posting in the SE Fall thread and has been pretty good so far too using the sun and solar wind to diagnose what tropical convections will be doing. Of course in the medium range as Masiello noted yesterday there is going to be a cyclonic wave break in the 50/50 location that is going to create a -NAO. I know many of you know what this means, but if you're new and are like "what the &^%$#%^& is he going on about" The storms break (I guess this means they gain as much latitude as they can without weakening??) and pull up higher heights toward the arctic. Look at the circle and arrows This leads to higher heights over the Davis Straights. Exactly where those higher heights, the "blocking," the -NAO, develop determines the storm track (as tnweathernut posted yesterday), it can force energy south of us, which is what we want if we want snow. Looks like the GFS is trying to bring a lobe or the tropospheric PV south of Hudson's Bay, but it is the GFS, so who knows, lol. I wish I had access to the Euro forecast trend maps, but I don't think weathermodels has those. One thing I'm really trying to figure out now is how all this works together. How does tropical forcing AND its results or independent processes in the N Hemisphere work together to create our patterns? Writing about it helps me think about it, so sorry if I don't have any more concrete predictions. I've got a ways to go on that, lol. I'm just happy there is no sign of last year's endless MJO clsuter%^$*
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Probably ended up with 3.5 or so on elevated surfaces. Good times in MoCo. I bet someone just north of me who more consistently got those heavier bands (maybe some upslope from Frozen Head?) may have gotten 4+.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the RGEM from yesterday won this one, at least insofar as its radar depiction. Now, for sure it REALLY screwed up for many areas west with virga, but in terms of just how the sucker looked all day on radar, RGEM won.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    This cutoff with the dry air is brutal. I think me and John may have hit it just right for this one.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I'm getting close to 4 now admittedly on the the deck, but still. Most snow I've seen in December since 1995.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Grandview would actually be a good spot. State highway runs all the way up to the top of the plateau from Spring City there and is a fairly gradual slope. HWY 68 runs from I-75 over to HWY 27. @jrips27
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually seeing more effects of that band now. Biggest snowflakes of the day hands down!
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hate to say it, but it looks like some dry air is starting to work in west of there, so not sure how well the moisture in AL will hold up, but it's probably as good as anything without making it up to the plateau here. How's it looking right now @McMinnWx?
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm just barely south of it. Cloudy with occasional fatties being rippified.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like what's left is aimed at the eastern valley. Good luck!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not official, but good enough for me:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I may end up with 3" before it's over. Pouring and sticking.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pouring here too now:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Obligatory deck pic with Christmas tree reflection in storm door:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Picked up again here too, closing in on 2 now.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I just missed that band by a few miles to the south. It picked up here, but never got too heavy. Looks like you have more on the way though!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good to hear then! Hopefully it holds!
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    @PowellVolz I think a lot of the precip. west of that is virga, at least in TN and maybe even NW Mississippi. There could be a last push up the eastern valley from that precip over LA that may overperform, but likely to far east for me: HRRR as an example of what that could look like if it materializes:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry for all the west/ middle TN/ Nashville folks, y'all deserve a good one
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was kinda worried about that too, but as soon as I got under the 25 - 30 dbz returns, snow returned. I think we at least have this moisture to get through and this plume is the final one models have been keying on over the past couple of days.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Picking up a bit now, nice call John, I must be misestimating exactly where I am now on NEXRAD
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    The heavier precip. is a little north of me, hopefully it hits you John. Just some flurries now.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of y'all may remember TROWAL dog from a few years ago. Now she's all grown up. **Actual name: Rosie**
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's awesome! Congrats!
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