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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    OP GFS went full with the above storm at 12z Still not as awesome as that EPS member above
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS especially sees some tropical foring moving into the dreaded Maritime Continent, but out in (admittedly) its la-la land, realyy cranks it up over the Western Hemisphere: EPS on the other hand like restrengthening it near the (cue dramatic music du...du...DUUUUUUU) the Western Indian Ocean: Right now the Western Indian Ocean looks pretty tame and most of the convection is in fact in the 4/5/6 regions: There's some a little further east, but it is also south of the equator. I wonder how much the less positive pattern depicted by NWP in the long range has to do with current convection location?
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry had to run up to Johnson City just after that Euro post around 1 and just getting back to MoCo: for some reason weathermodels doesn't have the 2m temps for the CMC
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro still trying for Tuesday night:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Runman292 Here is the 850 anomaly on the CMC: True "Barney" cold And the GFS:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro was still pretty good too, like a less amped NAM.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    @weathertree4u Baby yoda has summoned a baby Bantha to help the NAM help us!!!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro has rethought the idea of the frontal wave:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even though the Euro OP back off the wave riding the front idea, the EPS still like it to an extent. Only the first 30 members have populated at weathermodels, but several of those still have it. Also, a good NAMing this afternoon for that wave to go with my football watching schedule:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    To be fair, some of the EPS members show a similar system, just not always timed right for snowfall. I think there will be a big storm somewhere in the east during that time frame. Too many models/ runs have been honking the horn on it. I also think it will come up out of the Gulf, but whether it aims to track right at TN, or the Carolinas and whether it will have any cold air or disturbances timed right to phase, all that is not just up in the air, its at the 850 level right now, lol.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Weathertree: a wide range of possibilities on the table, lol:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    It is fun: Member 2 says 93 Jr incoming in 8 days, lol! Even the Euro though, has changed from almost what the NAM is showing this AM, to being more like the GFS was a day ago. Interested to see what the above storm actually turns into. Wonder if we can get at least one OP run that looks like member 2. It might break the weather boards!
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I try to say if I see something for even Arkansas, and I think John was at least trying to show how everyone in near I 40 could get a bit of snow. I try to be specific about the eastern vs the greater TN valley, but apologize if I've done anything to annoy anyone in the middle and western forum areas. I know I'm annoyed that we can't get a forum wide slider type storm or even a west to east clipper that gives the whole state 2 - 4. At this point we are relegated to chasing 0.5 - 2 inch post frontal waves....... can't even rely on upslope occassionally after a frontal passage .......sad.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty amazing to see how much the whole next 5 - 7 days has changed in modeling over the last 36 hours. 6z GFS is now closer to rain for us all except NW TN and it is more interested in a chunk of energy in the Gulf later on. Also interesting to see how the bigger, second storm, once modeled to come out of the southwest has been pushed east to develop toward the Gulf, over the past several days. I guess it is a symptom of the current wide open Atlantic? Timing becomes everything then, especially this early in the season.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Todays magical fantasy storms for East TN brought to you by EPS members 17 and 28: Always remember EPS members 17 and 28 for all your fantasy snow needs!! When EPs members 16 and 30 just won't cut it, call on 17 and 28, we'll do the job right the first time, as long as it is at least 8 days in the future.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro trying to bite on that wave riding the front early next week. Surprising cave to the GFS. Can it hold in such a fast and volatile pattern though?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting battle this AM, as y'all have pointed out. The GFv3S likes the little shortwave riding the front and many members of the 6z GEFS absolutely love the idea: To me, it looks like it depends on a tiny little shortwave riding down the Rockies and phasing with a bit of energy the main trough leaves back in the southwest. Now, not sure exactly how or if the 500mb vorticity can impact the jet, but there is more of a buckling that puts us under the right entrance region of a steak and keeps the lift going while we get moisture from the Gulf: One thing that is interesting about this to me is that the GFS Ensembles still use the old GFS core and can sometimes be less snowy than the new Fv3 that runs as the GFS now, but that is not the case here. Euro keeps the energy more wrapped up in the main trough though, so everything is further north and there's less snow, even though there still is some precip. in the same time frame from some of the same processes: EPS though does offer some hope, and more than I've seen for this event from it:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    GEPS mean precip type FTW:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    While the bigger storm possibility still wibble wobbles, the GEFS has had an uptick in members showing a shortwave riding the early week front next week: Euro OP is not too far off:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Birds getting stuck trying to nest in my wood stove chimney. They know what's coming, lol!
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fair enough, sometimes I forget newer folks might not know to take some of the wilder snow maps with a boulder of salt.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I agree. I just put it up there for the fun of it.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 500 mb relative vorticity on the Euro OP shows not a double phase, not a triple phase, but a United States phase: An upper low from International Falls to New Orleans.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    For the eye candy, here is EPS member 1: There are several other members that show similars solutions (even the OP and control) with lows coming out of the Gulf, but none show anything as fun or as much snow as the above. I'm not getting my hopes up, but any solution like this would be fun to track just to see lows coming deep out of the Gulf in winter. For posterity and its craziness here is a TN close up of the 6z GFS with the weird snow/sleet glitch: Even with that jacked up glitch there's still a snow hole near Chattanooga, lol. Unbelievable!
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    You ninja'd me! Looks like there was some glitch that made the GFS double that storm's snowfall/ sleet totals. The GFS map at weathermodels.com is doing the same thing. The Euro control has 3 lows coming out of the Gulf next starting at day 8. Could be worse. Could be in the bullseye at day 8.
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