BhamParker

Highlands was  beautiful!

30 minutes out from highlands. Nice dusting in most of north Georgia. Should be close to the good stuff. 

Just stopped in Gainesville. Hoping I’m close to some action. GPS is taking me 64

In route! See you mountain folks soon!

Man I sure wish we were already there but won’t be arriving until 2:45-3:00. Hopefully it’ll be nice and pretty on the ride up!

Leaving Birmingham now, trying to decide to drive through north Georgia or Chattanooga to Knoxville. Sure would love to see the snow on the way. I’m sure surface temps should be fine.

I am extremely nervous being on the western edge of the precip. Hoping Haywood county will do okay, but it sure would be nice for things to trend further west as we get closer to verification. We should be rolling into town around 3 tomorrow!

Large uptick on the 18z GEFS on the Sylva NC location. 

18z NAM looked alright

From the NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Looks like for now they are saying 1-3 above about 4,000 feet. My place is 3,770, so itll be a close call for sure. Would love for the NAM to be 
miraculously right and precip extend much further NW than other models.



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday: An upper shortwave will eject out of the
digging longwave trough, crossing the Gulf states Friday and the
Carolinas Friday night. This feature will induce weak cyclogenesis
right along the northern Gulf Coast, and spread a precip shield
across most, if not all, of the forecast area by early Friday
evening. A weak wedge of high pressure will be in place as precip
develops, but thicknesses only support any wintry precip in the
highest elevations. Forecast soundings show no warm nose, so expect
just an elevation-dependent rain/snow situation Friday night into
early Saturday. The question is how low will snow levels be, and
how much QPF. The NAM seems to be a wet outlier, so throwing that
out, we only have a couple of tenths of an inch of QPF for most
of the mountains 00z to 12z Saturday. This would result in 1-3"
above about 4000 ft. Will continue to mention the HWO, but this
looks sub-advisory level at this point. Otherwise, temps will be
mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s with most of the precip. The
sfc low quickly zips on east of the Outer Banks during the day
Saturday, but strong mid-level forcing will allow for another round
of mainly scattered showers to cross the forecast area from the
west. The 850 mb flow and temps don`t support much in the way of
NW flow snow showers along the TN border, and thicknesses should
be too warm for anything but rain east of the mountains. Going with
highs near normal under mostly cloudy skies. Whatever NW flow snow
shower activity we have may linger Saturday night, but should be
over with by daybreak Sunday. Additional snow accums are expected
to be very light. Lows will be slightly above normal.

I know its the HRRR, but the 18z looks very NAM like. It has some higher elevation snowfall accumulations.

12z CMC wasn’t terrible for some backside action. I realize the NAM is probably wrong, but I sure hope moisture spreads more to the NW than most other models are figuring. I’ll hold on until the very end 

Hoping 3800 will be high enough for a couple inches. Anything more than that will be amazing in my eyes. I’m not from catalooche ski area and I’ll drive wherever I need to. 

I won’t be able to sleep tonight and can’t wait to get to the mountains whether this thing busts or not. 

I’m not from North Carolina but it appears to me the Maggie valley area is in a great spot on those maps. I’m feeling good being 3800 feet up in Haywood county. 
 

I need Met1985 to make me feel good about this!

Looks like 12k NAM is also sticking to it’s guns with heavy snow for WNC mountains. It has skipped a few frames on tropical tidbits, so I can’t see it all. Out to 39 and still snowing.

Goodness it just doesn’t stop!! What an overnight run of the NAM, 3KM also looks a lot alike. Sure would be something if the NAM won this thing. 

00z NAM holding serve out to 51 hours

The 18z NAM appears to be sticking to its guns.

9 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Yeah, it's a small event for that area.

Maybe we will get lucky and it can trend stronger.

34 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

You should most likely get a couple inches from the flow snow up on soco

Thats a big deal  where I am from!

Just about every other model has some sort of wrap around snow and euro is clearly trending in at least in that direction. 

12 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Ukie pretty much in line with the Euro with the more eastern solution and possibly dry for the main event.  So that's about all ya need to know.

It looks good for the wrap around 

I’m just happy that all models are starting to come around for the idea of accumulating snow on the ULL feature after the first wave this weekend. If we score anything at all on the first part, it would be a bonus. 

GFS looked great for the trailing wave!