BhamParker

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's the long range NAM against the world.. we know how this usually turns out

Hey it’s been consistent and CMC is kinda similar. Euro has been back and forth and the 12z EPS was the first bad run of the EPS in many runs.

It could easily be wrong, but I sure won’t ignore it. 

12km nam still looked good for WNC mountains. The weenie in me will hug that until the end. 

All I can hope for is that being high in elevation will throw me a surprise. I’ve noticed with some of you over the last couple events, have been surprised with a couple of inches above 3500 feet and most models really weren’t showing much in the way of accumulation. I know some haven’t seen much, but at least I’ll have some kind of elevation on my side and I’ll drive up higher if I need to. 

Just now, Tyler Penland said:

2 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

I’m looking forward to my first trip to the mountains of North Carolina. Have heard from many people how beautiful Maggie Valley is. Hoping that this is the start of some good trends for all of us that will be in these areas. 

It really is nice. I got married down there back in August. If you are into waterfalls be sure to check out Soco Falls. It's roadside about halfway between Cherokee and Maggie Valley. Beautiful twin falls. Would be great to see in the snow.

We are staying not far at all from Soco falls, so we will def have to check it out. We are about 3800 feet up and not far from the catalooche ski area. 

I’m looking forward to my first trip to the mountains of North Carolina. Have heard from many people how beautiful Maggie Valley is. Hoping that this is the start of some good trends for all of us that will be in these areas. 

Here’s a good one 

00z NAM starting things off in a nice direction...

lots of moisture and coming in at night made for snow for just about the entire event for WNC mountains 

I am just hoping the latest Euro was correct and the earlier CMC was on to something. Clearly seems to be several different options on the table, but I am nervous about the situation. I'm not giving up just yet.

12z EPS with lots of different ways this could pan out. The threat is definetley very much still alive 

I feel like the 12z Euro was a nice step in the right direction. 

What a difference 

Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

CMC also brings down another bowling ball ULL like we saw earlier this season.

Model madness! 

This dang storm better have some dynamic cooling. If this one busts, I’ll suspend myself from chasing forever

While the Euro may have been a whiff, the EPS is still fairly aggressive for the weekend. 
 

What is the best EPS chart to look at that would translate to a similar look for Maggie valley? I’ve just been choosing Asheville, but I’d imagine they’d do better then Asheville being at a higher elevation. 

I will be making my first trip to Maggie Valley this weekend. Our place will be 3,770 feet in elevation, so hopefully we will be okay. I am looking forward to the weekend! Great pics from today!

From MRX

Of course our cabin is 2700 feet in elevation. I wonder if we will see any flakes at all from this. Oh so close!!


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
343 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-074-270945-
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-
Southeast Carter-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva,
Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek,
Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Elkmont, and Gatlinburg
343 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

...Minor snow accumulations possible across the highest
elevations...

An upper level disturbance will slide across the area overnight
into Monday afternoon. This system will bring snow showers across
the highest elevations of our eastern mountains. 1 to 2 inches of
snow is possible above 4000 feet with 2 to 3 inches possible
above 5000 feet. Up to 5 inches of snowfall is possible at Mount
leConte where the elevation is over 6000 feet. The best chance for
accumulating snowfall will occur between 5 AM and noon on Monday.

Travel may become hazardous as snow accumulates on higher
elevation roadways.

Just got up to our cabin and have had some very light snow showers and a dusting so far! Very pretty. Hoping for a surprise on Monday morning, but happy to see some flakes!

Things don’t look to be trending very well for the early Monday morning system. Too warm at the surface. Bummer 

1 minute ago, Runman292 said:

From the MRX disco on Sunday night's event:

 

A brief break from rain chances on Sunday ahead of our next fast
moving system, a shortwave moving out of the southern plains Sunday
night into Monday. Model soundings are showing profiles conducive to
snow, especially north of I-40 and along the Cumberland Plateau.
This means that we could see a quick shot of snow as the system
moves through. Models continue paint this system as being relatively
moisture starved and fast moving, so accumulations look to be pretty
limited at this time, remaining below Advisory Criteria. Biggest
concern with this system will be the timing of the snow with light
snow possibly beginning to accumulate ahead of the Monday morning
commute, so while a low end event looks likely as of now, it may
cause degraded driving conditions.

Read that earlier. Things may get interesting up in the mountains early Monday morning. Hoping the elevation will give me a nice surprise. Also got my eyes on next weekend!

GFS is warmer. Looks like this will come down to a few degrees either way. Will be interesting to watch it unfold. 

18z NAM looked interesting 

Euro looked like it puts down 1-3 inches in the mountains early monday morning. 

Would yall consider 2600 feet up high enough to see some snowfall this weekend or Monday morning?

GFS is SO close to something nice, temps are just a few degrees off 

25 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

I’m beginning to become intrigued by the Monday system. The models have been trending fairly good for us. I know it’s the 84hr Nam but it would probably be a 2-4 inch event for the southern and central mountains. It’ll be interesting to see what the models look like by tomorrow evening.

Tonight’s NAM and RGEM got me pretty excited as well. 

Yeah the Euro and EPS is not pretty at all for this weekend. Latest NAM seems like it has some more NW flow action, but it is only out to 63 hours...

Hoping that the higher resolution models will look more encouraging.

The RGEM looks decent.