BhamParker

Man, sunday night and monday morning is getting a little sneaky. Canadian and GFS are very close it seems like. I am hoping for a surprise in the mountains in Gatlinburg this weekend. We will be leaving Monday around lunch. 

9 of 20 members from the GEFS have 1 inch of snowfall in Knoxville, so maybe they are sniffing something out. EPS will be interesting at 12z

Latest NAM seemed to have a much better orientation as far as precipitation goes. It extended further south and appeared to still be doing well at hour 84. It is the long rane nam, but I would imagine that would be a trend we want to see more of.

Seeing this weekends system dwindle away has been tough, but I am more than happy to make it back to back trips if next weekends storm can trend well. Heck, some of the looks I am seeing on both the GFS and Euro would not take a lot of tweaking to get my home state in on some action. I have plenty of travel miles saved up, so I will stay tuned.

11 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Not sure what location you’re going to but in Wears Valley I’ve stayed at a couple of cabins that are 3k+. One of them was right on the GSM line.

 

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This one is off Ski Mountain road near Ober Gatlinburg, right by Cove mountain. We stayed right near here in Feb of 2018 the weekend of the super bowl and picked up 2 inches while most of the areas below me didn't receive a thing. 

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Bham, if we get snow out of this, we may just pay to move you up here each winter.  

Lol, I sure hope it happens. I did notice the GEFS now has all members with some sort of snow falling. I'll be hanging onto this one as long as I can. I will never forget staying up in a cabin Christmas of 2010 in wears valley. It rained most of the morning, but then changed over to a wet snow and we received 1-2 inches but it did not stick to the streets or anything. I remember staying up that night thinking it was over and the snow started falling and it snowed most of the night that night with temps well below freezing. I woke up the next morning and we probably had 5-6 inches of snow and it stuck to everything. It was amazing. I remember looking at the radar and the snow literally was just lined up along the mountains and nowhere else. I am guessing it was a true NW flow snow that night and I never will forget it. I am sure many of you remember the Christmas 2010 snow. I know that this is nothing like that, but I would just be thrilled to see things get white up and around our cabin. This will be the 5th time I have chased the snow up there and I have never been truly shutout. One time I only received about .5 inch, but it was still pretty.

The other big dog I chased was January 23, 2016 and we probably got 6-8 inches during that one and it was awesome.

I felt like I jumped the gun a little early after 00z Monday, but I won't go down without a fight. I will be here to share it with you fellow mountain guys win or lose.

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Do you know the elevation of the cabin you're staying at? It makes a huge difference in upslope events in the Smokies and foothills in regards to seeing snow flurries and showers vs a long duration event with accumulation. 

LeConte is in a world unto itself in those events as well.  It's the premiere upslope location in the entire southern Apps.  Sometimes models can bleed snow over onto areas it might not quite happen at because their resolution isn't quite high enough.  Especially globals. But the higher up you're staying the better chance of seeing snow and accumulation. 

The cabin is just over 2,600 feet. I’ve stayed in a few cabins around 2500 sq feet and they seemed to do okay in the past. I tried to find one as high as I could. 

18z GFS looks more bullish than it has in several runs with the NW flow.

Looks like the GEFS at least had more members with snow on the 12z run, but they are all light. That UKMET looks nice. 

49 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Bham, looks like models have converged on sending stronger energy to our west with the secondary forming nearly at our same latitude.  We need that secondary to be stronger and forming earlier to our SE.  Still a couple of runs for that to potentially change back.  This is a notoriously tricky set-up.  Usually energy transfer situations where the slp reforms over the Piedmont favor far NE TN and SW VA.  Right now, even those areas have seen the storm back off.   Might see some upslope once it passes though.  Just gave one final glance of the Euro...looks like the highest elevations will deal with mixing and snow during the first part of the event.  Then rain.  Then some upslope snow at the end of the event.  

I’ll be pulling hard for some positive trends over the next few days. I’d just love to see a 1-2 inch event up in the smokies, but will has a great time regardless. It was crazy how good the 00z Euro, GFS, and Canadian were just yesterday and then the change was so drastic. 
 

Thanks for the response! 

Models are really backing off on the weekend snow threat it seems. I guess we have time to turn it around, but it was looking like a nice event for the higher elevations at 00z yesterday and ever since then it’s just kinda crapped out. Still some ensemble support from the EPS, but most are very very light. Do these type of events for higher elevations, sometimes not show up as well on the model output or get better close to time?

I noticed with this last system yesterday and overnight, the models were not spitting out any snowfall accumulations to really speak of and places still reached up 1-3 inches in spots. 

Hey guys, its been awhile since I have been on here, but I am from Alabama and will be making a trip with the family to the mountains in Gatlinburg in hopes of some nice snow from the weekend system. Our cabin is 2900 feet up off ski mountain road and we will be arriving early Saturday morning and driving back on Monday.

We did this a couple years ago and Carvers Gap and a few of you other folks that are used to dealing with events in the mountains were a big help. I look forward to tracking this weekends storm and hope we can score on a nice NW flow event.

Hey guys, its been awhile since I have been on here, but I am from Alabama and will be making a trip with the family to the mountains in Gatlinburg in hopes of some nice snow from the weekend system. Our cabin is 2900 feet up off ski mountain road and we will be arriving early Saturday morning and driving back on Monday.

We did this a couple years ago and Carvers Gap and a few of you other folks that are used to dealing with events in the mountains were a big help. I look forward to tracking this weekends storm and hope we can score on a nice NW flow event.