rockchalk83

6 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Only major disagreement I see in the models, at this point, is the debate of an ice storm for DFW.

 

Here are the 10:1 snow ratios for the 3 major models. Other than the Canadian(which the run before looked similar to these), which is toned down some this run, they look strikingly similar.

Euro

 

GFS

Canadian

 

 

Kuchera may be better where the cold air is deepest (eg S KS, WC into C MO, and NW OK). There, SLRs could be 15:1, similar to what we had out here on New Year's Day. 

1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Anyone else still wondering what happens to totally mess this up?

Admittedly, I am. But here in southern Kansas, what will mess it up is if the high pressure comes in and shoves everything farther south...which has been the trend in the last 24 hours, at least in the deterministic models. The ensembles still hold on to the baroclinic zone farther north, on average. 

@StormChazergot the hookup on Euro maps? I’m out with the wife at a Sam’s Club that doubles as a zoo.

14 minutes ago, andyhb said:

So when do we start the conversation about what would happen if the SSTAs weren't so warm re: excess convection dragging the surface response east?

I had been wondering this same thing for the last couple days. 

Just looking at the models & their ensembles from this morning, it looks like the general theme is for the cold front to stall somewhere in northern or central Oklahoma during the day Tuesday, with precip developing out ahead of an upper air disturbance Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. 

If I were to forecast this, I would hedge the front/baroclinic zone and associated precip farther south, due to the dense nature of the colder air. Still though, think this is a good shot for all of us to see some much needed moisture and snowfall, but the bigger story, to me, is the colder air that will come down on the backside of this. Temps will likely be pretty cold for four or five days after the storm passes by. 

Just now, CT Rain said:

Yikes. What a nightmare. 

H7 low track looks ok early on back here but damn.

You have a truly unenviable spot in deciding whether to pull down forecast numbers or not. Oof. 

Just now, CT Rain said:

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

Generally, how have the meso models done with situations like this in your region? Do you see signs in any of them that this will tick back NW. Watching all of this from Kansas, as there's been nothing worth following out here since the big windstorm on December 15. 

Wagons up from BOX 

9 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Intense ice storm on the 12Z Canadian.

Last night's Euro backed off on the snow but increased ice outputs(frz rain and sleet) for our area.

This morning and the noon run of the GFS pushes the storm to the north and leaves all of us relatively high and dry.

Would think that unless the baroclinic zone stops, that most of the region would get in on some form of wintry precip. The Canadian has mirrored the Euro to some extent with two waves of precip along a stationary front. 

I'm already living and dying by the models in the NE forum (yes, I'm a degenerate), Euro runs in an hour...let's see what happens. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie has the meso low too.

I wonder how much the above normal SSTs in the NW Atlantic is helping in the latent heat/meso low production process. Gotta think it has something to do with it. 

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That’s a classic KU on the NAM

What is a KU storm?

The storm system sliding down the Front Range of the Rockies had dumped 12-20" in a narrow band from west central Kansas into northeast Colorado. 

Euro & GFS show the possibility of snow showers in OK tomorrow into Thursday, not much accumulation though. 

Looking farther abroad, the models seem to be honing in on a busy period (anything would be considered "busy" after the winter we've had so far) beginning around next Monday. At least one storm shown on the main 12z model suite. 

Perhaps JoMo or some of the others can elaborate on the broader strokes behind the pattern change, but it looked to me that the MJO gets into phase 8 as the AO trends negative.

The development of a TROWAL feature is where the game will be played in this forecast. There maybe some concerns with the temps initially, but should see things quickly change over once you get into that band on the north side of the low. Where the southeast movement slows and begins an east progression, someone is going to get socked. 

Sure wish this would back up even 150 miles. It's parched out here in southern Kansas and the drought shows no signs of letting up. 

19 minutes ago, KC Storm said:

WWA for 1 to 3 posted here. Currently 6F.

Same here. It is interesting that some of the CAMs (NAMNest, WRF-NSSL namely) bring the snow shield just past the Kansas Turnpike. Also, Dodge City and several sites in SW KS have been seeing snow for a while now and I wonder if that's not some signs of a baroclinic zone developing. 

FWIW, none of the models had this developing. 

2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

00z NAM caved to the GFS/Euro and shifted back south a bit.  Still a nice storm.   The first 34 hours look great then it falls apart up north after that.  Big hit again south of Fort Smith into South Central AR.  

Caved for your area? It still looks decent for Oklahoma and Kansas.

5 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Was the 12z run today including sampled data? It looks like the 0z run should for sure, but wasnt sure about 12z.

It was just off shore this AM and made landfall in NW Washington earlier this afternoon...so it should be much better sampled tonight. 

1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

18z GFS and v16 not near as far north with precip as the NAM was.  
 

For example, Wichita gets 7” on the NAM, 1” on the GFS.   

Dodge City 8” on NAM and 0 on the GFS.  

I’m puzzled by the discrepancy. My guess is that the NAM has a deeper wave, the GFS has a flatter solution.

Still lightly snowing here in Wichita. Should be over in the next hour or so, but we have not made it above zero yet. Headed to -15 overnight.

Ouch. 

New NAM 12km model rolling in...system looks to be a little stronger but neutral to a slight positive tilt. Higher totals for S KS. 

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Evergy, who serves the eastern half of Kansas/western half of Missouri, announced they would be instituting rolling black outs in their coverage zone as well...

As per SPP guidelines... Going to be an interesting next couple days for many. 

It is past time to modernize the power grid. There is no way we should be faced with rolling blackouts in the middle of an historic cold outbreak. 

13 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Have had off and on snow all morning around Wichita as well. Not sure on accumulation since so much snow already on ground, but a guess is 0.5-1". If I recall only models that picked up on this was NAM & RAP but could be mistaken. Has been slowly weakening but very back edge west of Wichita is starting to pick up again, which was actually picked up on the 15Z RAP IIRC. For a moment, it was snowing with sun peaking through clouds which was cool to see. 

Picked up another half-inch in the last six hours. Officially 4" on the ground here in Wichita. 

I have about 4.5" here in Wichita. Measured it about 8 times. 

In the words of Bill Belichick, "We're on to late Tuesday..."

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

I'm really liking how the 12z NAM has been doing so far... Gives me some confidence in its aggressive solution for the wrap-around band tomorrow.

Same here. Will definitely be giving it credence for the mid-week stuff, too. 

14 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

HRRR is doing horrible this morning, I see... really off in Kansas at least, and does not do a particularly good job with the snow in W OK either.

Other 12z CAMs (NSSL-WRF, WRF-ARW NMMB), and especially the 12z NAM are doing better.

Even so, most CAMs besides the NAM are underestimating the breadth and intensity of a lot of the bands.

I'm quite surprised to see the HRRR doing this poorly. The RAP has also done pretty well with this system, too. 

13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Thanks!  Does the 18z keep the 2nd storm way south or did it come north closer to the GFS? 

It came north some.