rockchalk83

43 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Wound up with 6" here... I think. Lots of drifting. If the models hadn't looked so promising we would all have been excited with this result. That's the expectation game, I guess.

I do think that there are some questions I still have about the models missing this. There were some signals, I agree. I think compaction and solar radiation may have played a role, too, because the flakes were so small. I don't know if that is part of the issue or not in the cold. Worth considering. 

I guess that is why this hobby is never boring.  Lucy is always waiting around the corner to move the football...

I don’t think solar radiation had an issue with the snow flakes being small. I think it was so cold & dry in the snow growth zone it didn’t take much moisture to make those flakes. Hence, why they were so small. 

The small flakes could have led to some minor compaction, but that’s a process generally left for heavy, wet snow.

34 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Just a screwed up modeling storm.  Not sure what they were seeing that didn't happen. 

Dry air at 2,000 feet, and then at 12-14,000 ft killed the forecast in all likelihood. It didn't show up until you looked at the Euro runs yesterday and then the HRRR runs last night. Hidden in plain sight.

But in all reality, it is very hard to get a >10" snowstorm out in this part of the country. The numbers being put on the street by models and others yesterday were surreal. In some way, it felt like a bad troll job.  

The synoptic setup of having arctic air come in ~12 hours before the event will always cause issues because the initial cold air advection in those airmasses can be quite powerful. Having done some case study work on this, most big snowfalls in this part of the country have had 24-48 hours of cold in place before the snow begins. 

Looks like the 3 KM NAM went back north just a smidge. Still widespread 8-12" for most here:

6 hours ago, JoMo said:

00z Euro is going to be quicker with the system and the 700 MB winds veer west quicker so less precip. 

06z Euro keeps this trend up. It feels like a fast outlier compared to the short-term, high-res modeling. Will be interesting to see if there is a shift in trends as we go through the day. 

One trend to watch is the positioning of the 850 front. The HRRR hints at it becoming more NE-SW oriented due to warm air advection with the low to the southwest, as opposed to W-E as some of the other models have it. The result becomes a big hit in S KS/NC OK, with more sleet & freezing rain in NE OK & SW MO, before eventually changing to snow.

Wichita issued a winter storm watch, too, and have “moderate to heavy accumulations of greater than 4 inches” in the watch text. 
 

Wouldn’t shock me to see that watch get pulled farther west and north. 

5 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Models do seem to be picking up on more of a warm nose, which could be problematic. 

That's the 850 & 700 mb fronts stalling in response to the low pressure developing to the west.

1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

 

This was the last frame of the 06Z Euro run. Included kuchera snow totals.

8-10 inches for most of us with more snow to come.

Will eagerly await the 12z EURO run.

 

Would love to see the GFS shift SW to fall in line with the Canadian, Euro and Icon.

If those other 3 hold, then it's likely the GFS will cave.

 

Almost reaching blizzard criteria in a few areas.

Will you post the 12 Z models?

The first of two winter storms will impact the region Monday night into midday Tuesday, and doesn't really look all that impactful for the region. 

The Euro paints an icing event for the I-44 corridor (image below), with heavy snow across northern Oklahoma and much of Kansas. If this is true, the second storm Tuesday night and Wednesday will cause significant travel issues for the region. 

46 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Portions of the Wichita forecast area just got upgraded

Yeah, we did. The interesting thing about this system is that the upper level feature is in a more closed low setup, which leads to slower progression and more lift for snow. 

Already 4-6" across the Wichita metro, with probably another 6-8 hours of snow to go. Someone is getting 10+" in south-central Kansas. 

Good luck everyone! Snow just beginning to fall here in Wichita, looking at 3 to 5 inches before it’s all over.

A little concerned the ensembles remain drier than the operational runs and we see a drying trend in the operational models over the next couple of days. Especially with the volume of cold air coming. 

Either way, dangerous weather is coming with the combo of dangerous cold and atleast some snow.

48 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Going to very curious to see the final totals for this storm. Everytime I look at trends it seems be ever so slightly deeper and south when it comes to the ULL. 24 hrs ago I thought I may not get an inch here in Wichita and now I could see areas very near Wichita waking up to a decent snow. Combined with the winds could be a huge mess. 

Rain is changing to snow in Newton and Goddard, won’t be long for us. Gonna be an interesting night.

Meanwhile, the 850 mb low for this current storm system was analyzed 100 miles farther south than modeled. High-res models have been trending up on this current threat this morning. But farther west from where @RocketWXand I are...it's a full scale blizzard in Western Kansas. 

42 minutes ago, andyhb said:

I think it's more likely for the Friday system to get suppressed south/shift too weak than cut that severely. That -NAO block is stout.

Do you think the MON/TUE system will shift south? In reading the AFDs from DDC and ICT, their mets seem to think so.

New wrinkle from the Euro on this latest run, it cuts off the upper low as it strengthens during the day Monday (similar to the 00z GEM). Looks to be a colder and slower solution, too. 

Of course, the end result will likely be a blizzard for some portion of Kansas/N OK. 

EDIT: Holy boats, this 00z Euro run is pure weather porn.

GFS appears to be much slower and slightly deeper this run. 500mb low deepens as it moves east across western Oklahoma. Decent hit for Kansas, with strong winds….

We have about 3” on the ground here in Wichita. Roads are all gummed up. 
 

Has anyone checked out the models this morning on storm #2?

58 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Looks like some snow or snow to rain for some folks on Friday morning with a weakening system and a bigger system on Monday-Tues (8th and 9th) which is still uncertain. And probably more systems after that to watch.

Definitely looks like we **could** have a decent event here in SC Kansas. Local NWS mentioning a cooling trend in the temp profile and models seem to be latching onto a weak TROWAL signature. We'll see. 

Once we get past the 4th of January, the pattern looks to get more active. Can’t wait to see how this develops.

7 hours ago, RocketWX said:

Just on the southeast side of Wichita and received roughly 7". One of my favorite snows of all time. Beautiful snow with large flakes and very little wind. Great start to the 2023-2024 winter as the moisture is much appreciated around here. 

I finished with 8” here on the west side of Wichita. A beautiful snow, and hope there’s more coming this winter.

7 hours ago, JoMo said:

So the GGEM/Euro did the best while the NAM was just awful like usual, right?

I'll admit, I fell hook, line and sinker for the NAM. Especially once the 3KM NAM got within 48 hours and it was pumping out 3-5" totals for S KS. And for a time yesterday, it looked like we were going to get that...but, marginal temps means just more moisture in the ground. 

Storms in warm sector of these storms always tend to rob the moisture from the snow side. It's something the models struggle mightily at trying to predict. 

Take what we can get, though, we're still in a drought after all. 

10 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Currently a very pretty snow just on the southeast side of Wichita. 34deg on the weather station though, so what's falling is melting. 

There's a moderate band of snow between us & the OK/KS border, we should see the ground whiten up in that band. Hope the precip fills in south of Enid. 

Given that we aren't seeing much of a changeover in western Oklahoma and that same precip shield is moving into S KS faster than expected, I'm wondering if don't end up with higher totals similar to what the NAM has shown? 

Would be a boom forecast out here for sure. 

EDIT: The 12z HRRR/3KM and 12KM (Regular) NAM both agree on 3-5" amounts out here.