SnowGolfBro

Just now, jewell2188 said:

If anyone thinks it’s making it to Dc, you are delusional. Southern fauquier county is likely the cutoff point. 

Coming down pretty good here. Whitening cars and mulch. I was pretty positive the last few days but if I’m being honest this already more flakes than i thought i would see out if this in Montclair

Just now, supernovasky said:

The HRRR is just mean right now...

Good thing it will change in an hour. I think DC could get in on a little dusting to one inch action over the next couple hours.

Just had the slightest increase in intensity. Could almost call it light snow in Montclair 3 miles west of 95

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

My guess is that you'll get in on the action soon. It's pushing north oh-so-slowly. Still holding out for a flurry here, probably won't get it. 

Seeing the flurries is a good sign.  Just need one moderate band to come through and saturate the atmosphere. Barely mood flakes at the moment

I’m like right on the border of snow and dry air. Hoping the snow pushes north another 20-30 miles before the wall wins out.

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Negative.  Well at least not in the northern half where I am.  Big county north to south

Flakes just started flying in my half of PWC about 15 minutes ago

3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

27.9 and snowing like crazy here near Staunton

Awesome. I really want the southern crew to over perform. Maybe indicate s chance for a burst here this afternoon

13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I think we could still eak out a dusting, maybe a little more. 70% chance starting at 1pm. The older I get the more I enjoy the winter visuals as opposed to getting shellacked. Of course there is the fun of using a snow blower,  I can't deny that. However I can't accept getting fringed in this way, I don't care what month it is. Seems like a lost opportunity. 

 

I have faith. I have Church and lunch with the family up in Alexandria. I’m expecting on my drive back down 95 to PWC this afternoon to experience heavy drifting flurries.

We just need a northern edge death band to set up shop over PWC. Stranger things have happened

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

FV3 looks almost identical to the GFS.

At this point i am just hoping for some model error. They are locked on to central VA special. Not sure that will change much between now and game time. 50 to 100 miles is a big ask but I’m asking anyway. ‘‘Tis the season

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

GFS op is being stubborn.

We toss

One nice thing about this setup is we have plenty of cold air. For those of us south of DC any snow that may fall will stick. We need a 50 mile shift to score a nice event. 

4 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

When are the next big model runs this evening time wise?

NAM to Euro 9-1

We are in like the 0-4 range. 

25% 0

50% 1-2

25% 3+

I mean we are just far enough south of the city we could squeeze out .25 qpf

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

DT strategically put RIC right on the 4-8 and 8-12 lines so if RIC gets anywhere between 4-12" he'll claim victory. 

That’s just smart lol

We don’t want to be in the bullseye until 12 z tomorrow.   

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Pulling out all the stops since we’ve got nothing to lose.  15z SREFs also bumped north.  0.1” up to M/D line, 0.25” north of DC, 0.5” just south of FFX County.  9z had 0.1” south of DC.

Srefs are seriously due for a coup lol

25 mile shift for happy hour. 50 more at 0z and then another 50 during game time. SECsy

8 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

One last tug would definitely be a happy ending. 

I’m hoping the Happy hour NAM love me long time.

One more tug North at Happy hour and local Mets might start to get a little jumpy.

JMA gives me .5 to .75 qpf along with the FV 3 15-1 ratios I’m expecting a foot now

2 minutes ago, Beachin said:

This will make alot happy.  JMA 12z

Right the JMA is really good at this range right?

I’ll take a blend of the RGEM and the UKIE and ignore the other models. Unless something better comes along at happy hour.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Hits the wall.

 

It’s a moving wall. We just need it to move a little more than the models are seeing. That’s our angle and its all we got. This still gives me a couple inches in PWC

35 minutes ago, Midlo Snow Maker said:

Here is some hope for DC 6z cmc

CMC is going Down with the ship. And I’m going down with the CMC lol