SnowGolfBro

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Interesting... 00z FV3 gets 0.05" QPF line to S Fairfax and 0.01" QPF line just north of DC

EZF into S MD ~0.20-0.25" QPF

We just need one of our players to jump in our favor and we could be looking at an advisory level event for DC and south. Be interesting to look at the surface map tomorrow night just to see if we have s punchers chance.

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Did the models have 50dbz off/along Texas gulf coast 

 

Juice that bomb up and till the dice with the confluence. 

We didn’t step back so we just need to really on good old fashioned luck

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Flurries would be a win at this point.  You could get in on that.  

Very true. But i want bob chill and the MD crew to see some flakes fly. That will mean I’m getting measurable most likely.  Keep that North Trend going for another 48 hours

I’ve seen enough of a trend that i believe the 0z could be entertaining.  The North trend (weaker confluence) is coming. May not be enough for us but it’s worth a couple more model runs.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gets a little past RIC. Not near the extent of the ICON/RGEM though.

The fact that the GFS bumped North is a good sign. If 0z shows more improvement then i like our odds at some snow

It’s going to be the Wild West in here if it does trend back in our favor. No way we can risk Storm Mode again from superstition perspective.

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I know it’s the Rgem at range. But man that’s an insignificant statistical error from being a DC special

Just move that High pressure NE about 100 miles and weaken it a touch and boom goes the dynamite.

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

 

I know it’s the Rgem at range. But man that’s an insignificant statistical error from being a DC special

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Very good improvement at 500s and the surface for the potential in the VA area. By hour 57 we see the low just off of Hatteras @ 994 mb vs. the 12z which had the low @ 1003 mb and running OTS at a farther south latitude.

So if we can get a strengthening low that naturally wants to gain latitude and the high pressure to weaken just a little we could find ourselves on the northern fringe. The radar hallucinations are going to be epic

Just now, NoVaWx said:

Cras nailed north trend storm Jan 2010

The models have trended a little North at 12z.  Now we need a good happy hour to confirm/reinforce the North trend. And then 0z to bring us all the way back into the game.

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

ok i'm done

Looks like 0z. Maybe 12z ticked North to give late hope?

5 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

FOLKS

Verbatim I’m like 25 miles from a SECS. And like 150 miles from a HECS. Of course I’d feel better if it wasn’t the Canadian but I’ll ride the model with the most snow until the storm is officially over.

4 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Well the 12z GFS is a bit North of the 6z

The Trend is our friend?!

Just now, Interstate said:

GFS say no to anyone north of the VA/NC line

The GFS has been a real buzz kill. I wish i could just toss and hug the Rgem

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Snow doesn’t get out of the most southern edge of Virginia on the GFS, and it barely snows there.

Close the blinds.

At this rate it will be snowing in FL on Sunday

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Sure.  It’s all on the table.  I think I will be looking at clouds heavy at times high 37 winds NNE at 3..then later that night decreasing clouds heavy at times low 29

Maybe i should still be in golf mode. 37 with light wind would be nice conditions. I should probably book a round of golf which would pretty much guarantee a foot of snow

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

18z EPS precip shifted about 25 miles north.  0.1” is in Southern FFX county.  I’m holding on until the bitter end.  

25 miles every 6 hours and we will shoveling a HECS in Monday. Or snowblowing for that matter

20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Bold for me...1-2”...ya lets see.  

I’m going with 2-4. Catch a little northern edge banding.

We have 72 hours till game time and the JMA on our side. NAM coming into range at 0z. It’s a stretch but I’m holding on for one more big shift north. That hammer up north needs to RELAX

I think that confluence to the North has peaked and will slowly start retrograding back to the less suppressive look we saw a couple days ago. The question will then be if the s/w is potent enough tho gain latitude as it moves across theSouth. The game is on. But we are down 2 scores and the other team has the ball. We need a turnover to flip the momentum. Happy hour is our time. 

13 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

NCEP fv3 has D.C. as the northern fringe.

We just need little nudges and one 50 mile nudge mixed in between now and Saturday and we will be buying milk and toilet paper

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

IMO we still have time for the northerly adjustments, as we have basically been watching this like a hawk from almost a week ago, so I think we all got a little invested really early on this threat.  I'm likley out, but could see somewhere between DC and Balt, still getting in on some fun.  Hoping it happens for you guys.

I’d be out if i was North of DC. But being 30 miles south of the city i still have a punchers chance of being on the Northern fringe. So I’m in for a couple more days.

1 hour ago, mappy said:

really great write-up by them. hopefully today the moving parts become a little bit easier to figure out what they will do. i'm not quite ready to write this off either. 

I think it’s reasonable to stay tuned.  We’ve seen the models jump at this range before. Probably going to slide south but we could still still get an advisory level event if things fall our way

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think the GGEM is going to go south....lol

Good that model is always wrong. We need the Euro to find its way North over the next 24 hours or so. Starting tonight would be nice.