SnowGolfBro

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

i was banking on 3 HECS this season....losing this one is going to really my chances

I bank on 3 HECS every year. But let’s be honest. If the pattern loads back up in a couple weeks we will be chasing multiple threats during prime climo. Still not giving up on this HECS even if the models keep slapping us in the face.

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i know but to toss a 1-2 foot snowstorm and hope another comes along is just hard to phatom. Especially when places that shouldnt get snow are taking ours

So far they are only looking at digital snow. If this does miss us to the South we are almost certainly going to be having radar hallucinations even though we know it’s out of reach.

Sometimes the confluence is overdone on the models. I think that’s the wildcard but it’s getting less wild as time goes by

I like where we stand right now. Currently we are out of the game. But we are close enough to stay interested. We want the bullseye on Friday or Saturday. The models are locked in and that’s all well and good. But i fell a shift coming in the next 24 hours. The confluence to the North is going to weaken just enough for us to score

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no. In all seriousness, we have models advertising a storm 100 hours or so out and it’s within a couple hundred miles of being a big hit. Too soon to throw in the towel in my opinion.

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just...I mean, I thought we would have to see more support for a possible hit before we went that far.

Maybe this reverse psychology so we can at least get inside 100 hours before the weekend

11 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I didn't know that Medicare had a weather computer model.

Me neither but if it shows snow for my backyard sign me up!

That guy has a really good weenie handbook.  I’m sold.

There are so many players in this game right now any one of them could be modeled  just slightly wrong and it would have a huge effect on the whole game. Definitely worth extrapolating the NAM

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Almost....again

Dosent Boston go through this everytime before they get in on the 2 -3 feet?

I was thinking the same thing lol. The bowling bowl phased up the coast idea is showing up as at least a possibility.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

E13 and E14 please.  We all win.  Spread the love.

E-13 gives me almost 3 feet. That would be a wild start to the winter lol

This is the biggest Euro run of the afternoon. Be curious if it follows the Ukie or has a hook up with F$&”$@& Victorious-3.

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Except for storms like 2016...now THAT was easy! No big shifts...just a forecast of 2-3 feet for 7 days prior to it's arrival!

A great storm but it did lack a certain roller coaster tracking period that is part of the fun. Just think if this one does pan out for us.  We can look back at the Souther Slider, Cutter, and this storm is killing puppies and bunnies and laugh while it’s ripping fatties on Sunday night

1 minute ago, Snowlover101 said:

A north trend over the next week and Dumfries will be in Jackpotville and the whole forum would be crushed. Overall it’s been an encouraging 24 hours of model runs IMO

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

NWS  calling for rain and snow on Saturday. 

That’s how the good ones start. Then 5 days out it’s 1-3. Then 3 days out it’s 3-6. And so on until hopefully we see something like 24+ the night before. That’s how i remember 96 anyway

I think the players are starting to show up on the guidance.  It will be interesting over the coming days to see if they can come together just right for us. Get the low to track up the coast and the high to hang on to our N

25 minutes ago, yoda said:

We take and run

 

Only a couple days away from medium range.. hold strong little roots

Timing kind of makes sense. Score on the way into a cold snap and score on he way out of the cold snap. I’m also liking that the cold anomalies are like -10 to -15. And not like -30 bone dry departures. I’m liking the look here for another winter appetizer...maybe even an entree if the cards fall right.

On 11/20/2018 at 1:42 PM, WxUSAF said:

GEFS strongly favor a TN valley transfer to SC/NC coast around the 2nd-3rd. Not sure if this is just their nondispersive nature showing up again to support the Op at 300 hr leads.  Seems possible. But the setup is very nice, that’s for sure.

I think we just got sucked into trying to track too early in the season. I’m guilty of it. The preseason snow was fun. But we are still about 3-4 weeks from the start of prime climo. Sure we can score in the next couple weeks if everything lines up but an early December warmup isn’t really a big deal. 

22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not that it means much but the GEFs snowfall mean in the longer range has been starting to bump up in the last couple of runs.

If we can start getting digital snow in mid November that’s a good sign especially after we scored a minor event already

May not be long before we see a some digital snow map porn in the 2 feet plus range with the look being advertised. 

Just now, Jandurin said:

Per CWG, DCA has reported 1.4" officially

Geez. That’s more than they report from some of our blizzards.

It’s funny. Looking at the weather channel radar it almost looks like the Rain/snow line is trying to creep back South and East. It’s subtle but it their. Will look again without my weenie glasses on to be sure.

Snow trying to mix back in in Arlington