SnowGolfBro

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

And when we account for our 50 mile North shift then the bullseye is over DC. Here’s tipping back my Molson to you CMC. Real Models of Genius 

Well i guess it could all go down the drain but i get this feeling that having the JV models against might actually be a winning formula lol

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

It does make the jump at 84 fwiw... looks to be in the midst of transferring I believe

Looks like an awful Miller b

I thought Miller B storms were northern stream systems that jump to the coast. 

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

0.1” is up in central NJ...totals are heavier as you travel west.  Lots of breathing room on the 18z imo.  

I think the Euro is primed to up the ante to a 4-8 inch type storm. It’s been progressing that way. And we could pull that off with .6 qpf and decent ratios.

2 minutes ago, jackb979 said:

00z runs will be interesting to see if the GFS is onto something or if that split at hr 84 is just noise 

18z Euro goes out to 90 so we should get an answer sooner than that. And then a new set of data to digest at 00z

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I wish this NAM run continued. 84 looked fun

It’s better this way. We can use our imaginations. Which is kind of what the 84 hour NAM is anyway. But could be the signal for a raucous happy hour

I i just saw a snowflake in Arlington. Maybe a sign that the atmosphere is wetter leading to wetter storm this weekend (best Chuck impression)

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd dig deep and analyze the run but the euro will be out in less than an hour so I'll just completely toss the run and wait. 

4 members showing a foot plus at this lead time shows the potential if all the parts come together. Didn’t say any total whiffs either so it could be worse.

Once the pattern goes cold tonight and settles in i think the models will start to become much more stable for the weekend threat.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

no it's a miller a but if it develops too late it could miss areas up here thats all.  The storms that missed us to the southeast the last 2 Januarys were miller a storms.  Not every miller a becomes a HECS for us.  

And looking at the GFS you can see a little bit of the potential for some of the analogs you mentioned yesterday. Going to be quite a ride over the next few days for better or worse.

34 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The OP GFS  is more south compared to the mean on the GEFS. The FV3 would be on the northern side of the esembles.

If we didn’t have the recent memory of 12-9 missing South I’d say that is a pretty good luck 3-4 days out

After a full day of model runs and pretty much every run on every model showing some accumulating snow, I’m not giving up at 6z 3.5 days out. The models are clearly struggling with the amplitude of the SW.  If and until we see a consistently modeled SS SW it’s hard to be too bullish or bearish at this time.

The models are honking for snow this weekend.  A cold high to our N and a SLP passing to our South.  Right now a good forecast is 3-6 inches IMO. This has the feel of 96. If this storm follows suit we will have gradual bumps in totals up to gametime. I blame PSU for putting 96 in my brain. That was my all time favorite snowstorm

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

NAM clown maps anyone? For poops and giggles ! 

You can draw one based on your extrapolation. Looks like incoming all NAM caveats aside

Getting kind of pumped for the old GFS (which is kind of new again because it’s broke from the shutdown). 

5 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Funny thing is I’m smart to understand it’s tuesday....not Thursday or Friday....therefore the final outcome won’t be known till game time  or clif diving. I’m not claiming to know more then anyone in this forum. Just stating a simple fact that no one in here could probably argue with. Save you’re feelings till Friday.

Did not mean it as a shot at you. I agree we can’t possibly know the outcome yet. 

8 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

 Unfortunately It’s only Tuesday and I’m not sure anything we have seen thus far will be the actual outcome....good or bad

Funny. I think we have seen the final solution at some point over the last 48 hours. Because we’ve seen pretty much seen every possible outcome. From NC special to MA special to coastal hugger. And everything in between. Time to listen to the pros and see where this thing goes over the next 72 hours. If i can ask one weenie question. What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm?

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Right now the GFS/FV3/CMC/EURO/JMA/GEFS/EPS are all pretty much on the same page. As much agreement as you can have 5+ days out. Only down hill from here?

We are inside of 100 hours for first flakes based on the latest guidance. Let’s try to get this thing  to Thursday with a decent look and i like our chances to score a solid event

5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

If this keeps trending it would be a pretty nice win for the GFS to have sniffed it out first. 

I though the ICON was leading the way a few days ago.

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not one total whiff on EPS.  Not bad

Yep. And it’s not like there are 4 HECS mixed in skewing the mean. One Hecs in their and a fair amount of SECS and MECS.

26 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Storm Vista has 6 inches over DC on the Euro.  I thought this double jet streak structure was neat.  The left front juxtaposed with the right rear quadrant is a favorable combo for a moderate snowstorm and for potential banding.  

When you say things like “double jet streak” and “potential banding” it makes the weenies, myself included, get a little giddy. Thanks for all you do Wes!

Just now, WhiteoutMD said:

Ouch


.

That’s right where we want it at a 5 day lead time 

Just now, usedtobe said:

stormvista has us in 6-8 on its snow product.  Wont' get excited until the Euro trends north.  The 06Z looked encouraging at its end.

Certainly a bit early to be hanging our hats on OP runs of any model. The ensembles are still hinting at a decent event. That GEFS run is very encouraging

I have a feeling today’s runs will start to give us a pretty good idea where we’re headed for the weekend. Southern slider I’d put at 25%. Strung out storm that gives us in the 2-4 range at 50% and a coastal hugger that gives us warning level snow and maybe even some mixing at 25%. It’s going to be an interesting 24 hours 

We are still far enough out to see this thing shift + or - 100 miles. If guidance holds the next couple days and doesn’t shift south we could still get a North trend inside 72 hours which happened on 12-9. The problem on 12-9 was the models shifted the wrong way from 48-96 hours out.