SnowGolfBro

Just now, psuhoffman said:

But what does 10 days after that look like?

Spring!

9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

New normal.

Base state.

Dogs living with cats…mass hysteria

5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Small potatoes. But not 0" for everyone!

 

 

 

My goal is to beat Short Pump. Low standards this winter lol

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I don’t know about WISP this year, but Timberline this past Saturday was absolutely stellar. The new owners that came in a few years ago are killing it there. I was super impressed for my first time on that mountain. 

They really have turned Timberline around. I was up there after Christmas and Timberline was rocking! Canaan Valley resort down the road had like 2 slopes open. 

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Just in time to ruin Spring

Nothing like a warm and snowless winter and a cold and wet Spring.  FFS

4 minutes ago, GATECH said:

It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out!  Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace.  It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money.  Happy hour GFS run is awesome today!  Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing!  After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND!

I’ll take it one step further. Let’s get some 60s and 70s in the long range and start Spring. I have had enough of 39 and rain today for the rest of this winter.

It needs to be said that we are working off historical averages going back maybe 150 years. So what we call the average may be extremely low or extremely high if we had records going back to the beginning of time. And based off the big events i can remember, it stands to reason that we would have years or stretches of many years (maybe centuries in the data we can’t know) where it just doesn’t snow much. That sucks. But we keep tracking winter month after winter month. It’s what we all like to do. I do think we will see some some snowflakes before the Spring. But if we don’t I’ll still be tracking next winter.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

its not really squashed and it still sucks...

True. But if we aren’t hopeful at D7+, we should just go ahead and pack it in for the winter. Not ready to do that, so blind hope it is!

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

yeah its squashed 

Eh, prefer squashed at this range over “it’s cutting, congrats Chicago”

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Something to prognosticate about inside of 10 days. Baby steps…

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well we are about to go from "its warm everywhere" to "its just warm HERE".  Baby steps and all that jazz.  

If that verifies I am golfing my ball that weekend. Maybe a trip to Williamsburg…

GFS always struggles with CAD. Weenie handbook page 420…

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

some absolute monsters in here too, including a 2016 redux. lmao

Yes, P8 and then I’m ready for the golf season, which still hasn’t ended lol

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

18z is not even close.  Not even a hint of anything.  Not saying it’s right.  

It was fun while it lasted

34 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I dont think this is a big one at all... but if you like simple straight forward user-friendly 4-8 inch area wide snow storm... this might be our best bet.

Understood, sitting at 0.0 inches on the season so 4-8 would feel pretty dang ole big. Just trying to get excited for some real threat tracking as opposed to “in 15 days the pattern gets good”.

9 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

There is a ton if agreement 174 hours out that a big storm is going to set up along with a trough over the eastern half of the country.  

 

Look at the agreement in the clustering of lows over Colorado.  Thats our storm for the 1/14 - 1/15 period: 

Now look at the 500 MB height anomaly a couple of panels later:

 

The trajectory of the isobars (WSW to ENE orientation) out in front of the upper level low steers that the storm  just to our south.  The low pressure out in the Atlantic also forces things to our south and reinforces cold air. 

 

It's a nice look IMHO. 

 

The big ones get sniffed out early…even if this one does come together, the next week will have everything from “we are snow town USA” to “The base state is warm, move to Calgary if you want snow”

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

its over. 2001-2002 big one was a southern storm/scraper...similar to what the euro is showing. Its nina bro..were either getting a cutter or a southern slider

Liking the reverse psychology. It will probably be 85 degrees with palm trees next weekend. 

-7 here and the damn rental Jeep won’t start. Might be spending Christmas on the mountain.

Sub zero and high wind on Timberline mountain. Working on the 4th floor and when the wind gusts you can almost feel it even with being inside.

Fog has set in at Timberline. A little eerie knowing it will be below zero in like 12 hours

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That’s potentially a blizzard upslope look to it. Mountains are going to score big on Saturday into Sunday if that look verifies. Of course I get there Monday morning 

I’m heading to Canaan tomorrow, coming back Friday and then back again the day after Christmas. So this will definitely verify lol

The cluster of lows near the benchmark on the 6z EPS is encouraging. To steal from the CWG:

Less than 1”…..20%
1-3………………..30%
3-6……………….40%
Und BECS?……10%

This is my first preliminary early call minus a map with some weenieism factored in, subject to change “forecast”.

Just now, BristowWx said:

If it was a mangled set up it would be easier.  But this is supposed to be the grail pattern.  It should be easier.  

I hear you. But even in the best setups, we still need some luck. I don’t think we need a lot to go right to hit this one big. Sometimes we are hoping for a miracle. Right now we just need the models to key in on a canonical look and get locked in! 

34 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Surprisingly a number of east and southern solutions in GEFS. 

We are in the game. Sure this thing could cut to Minneapolis or slide to Bermuda. But that is the song and dance for most trackable events around here. On to 0z.

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor…Hell no! Turn this around at 0z!