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SnowGolfBro

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  1. SnowGolfBro
    And when we account for our 50 mile North shift then the bullseye is over DC. Here’s tipping back my Molson to you CMC. Real Models of Genius
  2. SnowGolfBro
    Well i guess it could all go down the drain but i get this feeling that having the JV models against might actually be a winning formula lol
  3. SnowGolfBro
    Looks like an awful Miller b I thought Miller B storms were northern stream systems that jump to the coast.
  4. SnowGolfBro
    I think the Euro is primed to up the ante to a 4-8 inch type storm. It’s been progressing that way. And we could pull that off with .6 qpf and decent ratios.
  5. SnowGolfBro
    18z Euro goes out to 90 so we should get an answer sooner than that. And then a new set of data to digest at 00z
  6. SnowGolfBro
    It’s better this way. We can use our imaginations. Which is kind of what the 84 hour NAM is anyway. But could be the signal for a raucous happy hour
  7. SnowGolfBro
    I i just saw a snowflake in Arlington. Maybe a sign that the atmosphere is wetter leading to wetter storm this weekend (best Chuck impression)
  8. SnowGolfBro
    4 members showing a foot plus at this lead time shows the potential if all the parts come together. Didn’t say any total whiffs either so it could be worse.
  9. SnowGolfBro
    Once the pattern goes cold tonight and settles in i think the models will start to become much more stable for the weekend threat.
  10. SnowGolfBro
    And looking at the GFS you can see a little bit of the potential for some of the analogs you mentioned yesterday. Going to be quite a ride over the next few days for better or worse.
  11. SnowGolfBro
    If we didn’t have the recent memory of 12-9 missing South I’d say that is a pretty good luck 3-4 days out
  12. SnowGolfBro
    After a full day of model runs and pretty much every run on every model showing some accumulating snow, I’m not giving up at 6z 3.5 days out. The models are clearly struggling with the amplitude of the SW. If and until we see a consistently modeled SS SW it’s hard to be too bullish or bearish at this time.
  13. SnowGolfBro
    The models are honking for snow this weekend. A cold high to our N and a SLP passing to our South. Right now a good forecast is 3-6 inches IMO. This has the feel of 96. If this storm follows suit we will have gradual bumps in totals up to gametime. I blame PSU for putting 96 in my brain. That was my all time favorite snowstorm
  14. SnowGolfBro
    You can draw one based on your extrapolation. Looks like incoming all NAM caveats aside
  15. SnowGolfBro
    Getting kind of pumped for the old GFS (which is kind of new again because it’s broke from the shutdown).
  16. SnowGolfBro
    Did not mean it as a shot at you. I agree we can’t possibly know the outcome yet.
  17. SnowGolfBro
    Funny. I think we have seen the final solution at some point over the last 48 hours. Because we’ve seen pretty much seen every possible outcome. From NC special to MA special to coastal hugger. And everything in between. Time to listen to the pros and see where this thing goes over the next 72 hours. If i can ask one weenie question. What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm?
  18. SnowGolfBro
    We are inside of 100 hours for first flakes based on the latest guidance. Let’s try to get this thing to Thursday with a decent look and i like our chances to score a solid event
  19. SnowGolfBro
    I though the ICON was leading the way a few days ago.
  20. SnowGolfBro
    Yep. And it’s not like there are 4 HECS mixed in skewing the mean. One Hecs in their and a fair amount of SECS and MECS.
  21. SnowGolfBro
    When you say things like “double jet streak” and “potential banding” it makes the weenies, myself included, get a little giddy. Thanks for all you do Wes!
  22. SnowGolfBro
    That’s right where we want it at a 5 day lead time
  23. SnowGolfBro
    Certainly a bit early to be hanging our hats on OP runs of any model. The ensembles are still hinting at a decent event. That GEFS run is very encouraging
  24. SnowGolfBro
    I have a feeling today’s runs will start to give us a pretty good idea where we’re headed for the weekend. Southern slider I’d put at 25%. Strung out storm that gives us in the 2-4 range at 50% and a coastal hugger that gives us warning level snow and maybe even some mixing at 25%. It’s going to be an interesting 24 hours
  25. SnowGolfBro
    We are still far enough out to see this thing shift + or - 100 miles. If guidance holds the next couple days and doesn’t shift south we could still get a North trend inside 72 hours which happened on 12-9. The problem on 12-9 was the models shifted the wrong way from 48-96 hours out.
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