SnowGolfBro

I think it’s a matter of doing the cost benefit analysis (which is not a fun analysis to do when dealing with life and death) to determine which scenario causes more hardship and death. If i have a model that shows An additional 100k deaths from Covid if we don’t have a full shutdown for 3 more months and there is no other considerations i think most people would be on board. But if we then contrast that to a model that shows 60 million lost jobs and several hundred thousand Premature deaths due to the economic and societal disruption of the shutdown, then what do you do? And the other murky thing is these are just models. They may or may not be close to reality. We had a model that showed 2.2 million deaths in America a month ago that was considered serious at the time. Economic models can have flaws too. Another consideration is the death and hardship from the shutdowns will not just come for the sick and elderly. A ton of factors to consider. It’s a complex problem and we need to try to find the optimal solution. And it’s likely the optimal solution will still include a lot of death sadly.

Even those of us that support a quicker return to normal life are not suggesting that people that are particularly vulnerable should just throw caution to the wind. If u are elderly with a comorbidity or extremely over weight then you need to make the decision to self quarantine until you feel safe. And we should come together as a society to assist those people wherever possible. For example, if the Wizards or Caps had games coming up with fans i would go and feel comfortable. But i can see why those at risk would avoid those situations.

Thats great to hear. I am still hopeful of a faster turnaround come mid May. I really think warmer weather will be a huge factor. But waiting around to test that theory stinks.

I mean my kids are loving having Dad home all the time. But at the same time they are missing their friends and school and life. I was fully on board for the 15 days to slow the spread. And reluctantly on board for the additional month ending May 1. But when Governor Northam made the June 10 declaration i was not on board anymore.

The other thing that makes Covid less scary to me is that it does not have adverse effects on kids for the most part. I have young kids so i tend to look at life through the lens of what is dangerous for them. And until there is some change in the data, I’m not concerned at all for my kids. Is that a selfish view. Perhaps, but if you have young kids your number one priority is there health and happiness. The lockdown hasn’t made my kids healthier, but it has made them less happy.

I also wonder if people are able to understand that a lot of people dying from or with COVID 19 would have been like like to die from some other cause that is accepted as okay. For example, an 80 year old in a nursing home died from Covid 19. But they had preexisting conditions that would have caught up with them sooner than later. It’s these difficult and sad thought exercises that also skew the death numbers IMO.

It wouldn’t be any fun if we agreed on everything. Just because we disagree doesn’t mean i don’t have a lot of respect for the other opinions on this thread. It’s not a black and white situation. I wish there was an easy solution.

A month ago we were told that there could be 2.2 million Americans killed by this virus. Almost everyone bought into the initial two weeks to slow the spread. Then the vast majority of us said we will do another 30 days. Now predictions are the we could have 60000 deaths. That’s still a tragedy. We all sacrificed a lot to fight this battle. 10s of millions of jobs, mental health scars that may take years to heal, depleted savings etc. Come May 1 there will no longer be majority support in this country for continued shut downs. We need to take the next two weeks to plan for those most vulnerable in our lives and how to keep them safe. If we do that and responsibly reopen the country we will be stronger than ever as a country.

Yeah i know he means well. And there is no question that people can’t drive or park properly around here lol.

No worries. You clearly didn’t read his comment. He said verbatim “we live in the stupidest, most selfish country in the world”. I agree there are some ignorant, selfish people in this country and on this thread. But the beauty of this country is we can discuss different ideas and agree to disagree. Some want to shutdown for 18 months. Some for a year. Some for six months. Some another couple months and others who are ready to start up society again today. These are different opinions based on the information available to us. It’s a complex situation. I enjoy hearing everyone’s point of view. But if you want to call America as a whole stupid and selfish then i will push back.

No one is keeping you here. I happen to love our country. And i think we are the greatest country on Earth and it is not even close.

This drug (or perhaps another down the road) would change the whole discussion. If people had confidence that getting Covid was akin to getting Strep Throat or some other treatable disease. Then the whole conversation is moot. Everyone would be ready to go back to normal almost overnight. That would be a best case scenario. Put me in that camp.

Atlas Shrugged is my favorite book. We could use a John Galt type of figure right about now. Someone who is brilliant with a profit motive that comes up with a cure for the virus. Anyway, Who is John Galt?

This is a silly argument for one very important reason. There have only been about 208 deaths in VA from Covid-19. So even if the numbers check out the sample size is way to small to draw any conclusions IMO

We should be planning. i agree 100%. And i agree we should reopen (by state and locale) based on conditions on the ground. I think we found some common ground :-)

We shut down temporarily to slow the spread and reduce pressure on hospitals. I agreed with this rationale. But now some are talking about the second wave in the fall as a justification for continued shut down in a lot of places. We didn’t all sign up for that.

We listened to a lot of dire predictions from experts. We reacted as a nation to slow the spread. But everyone has their limits. If u live in a state or locality that has had little or no impact you did your part for the last month or so. It’s only rational for people in NC for example to say enough is enough. Does that mean that NYC should feel the same way? Of course not. I live in a county that has about 600 cases and no deaths to date. Surely some of those people will sadly pass away. I’ve worked remotely, kept my family sheltered for the better part of a month. We did are part. The kids are ready to play with friends. I’m ready to go back to the office.

It has not been in the 80s in New Orleans the last few months. And Florida has 668 deaths at last count. There Are 20+ million people in Florida. And they got a ton of travelers from out of state during cold/flu/Covid season. If the heat wasn’t a factor I’d expect to see much higher numbers. It’s going to start to heat up in New Orleans and i bet that will slow the spread there too. Texas is another great example 30 million people and only 400 deaths.

I think on a weather forum we can take an educated guess. Right now average highs are in the 90s in the most populous parts of India. I have yet to see an area where temperatures are in the 80 plus range have any significant issues with the virus. I’m not saying you can’t get the virus when it is hot out. I’m just saying name a place where it is hot over the last couple months that is having a huge issue with Covid.

Sorry I’ll leave the 2A at the door.

Great. Let’s destroy the “human experience”. Seems to be going well so far. Mass unemployment, authoritarian government control, neighbors snitching on neighbors in the interest of the “common good”. What could possibly go wrong?

Google Weimar Germany and hyperinflation. You will demand the government stop printing money.

It’s not the flu. But the flu is something we can compare it too. Right now there have been approximately 25000 Covid related deaths in the US. Every year we deal with something like 40000-80000 flu related deaths (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine that year and the nastiness of the strain). This has the greatest impact on the elderly population with preexisting conditions. If we end up with 100k plus deaths over the next couple months then we can say this is not comm mom parable to the flu. We are all taking drastic and unprecedented steps to slow the spread. Over the course of the next month or two more and more people are going to change their views on these measures. You can see it starting to happen around the country. No one is demanding people that are scared leave their homes. But people will start to demand they be allowed to leave their homes without the threat of fine or imprisonment.

What is not easily discernible from the data is how many people dying from Covid would have been likely to die from another disease within say a 12 month time period. This does not diminish the lives of these individuals, but it would have an effect on how the rest of us go about our lives. We have to be careful not to forget that there is a circle of life component to all of these data points. We all have to go sometime. And those of us over 65 years of age with underlying conditions are going to be at the top of nature’s list. It is not a fun topic to discuss, but these are challenging times.

I’m remaining hopeful that warm weather will help in our attempts to slow the spread of the virus. Other than the hot spot in New Orleans, many warmer areas have seen far less cases and deaths. Florida sees a ton of travel from The north during the winter. They have about 600 deaths from the virus. I think the country will be able to “open up” from south to north starting on May 1.