StantonParkHoya
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Everything posted by StantonParkHoya
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If by just west, you mean 150 miles west. It’s noticeably west of 12z.
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It’s a low likelihood
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Wow. We said there was no way of avoiding a US landfall, but life finds a way.
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One notable for those thinking eastern threat — the runs most east are the quickest (when ridging is to the west), by the time high/heights get overhead and east, storm is out. Thinking most likely is a somewhat weak entry north of Tampa, riding northward along I-95 til an exit near Wilmington, NC.
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I’m skeptical, it would also be dealing with roaring sheer and dry air entrainment.
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Indeed. If it were the 90s, without long range modeling, we wouldn’t even be talking about this.
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We’re gonna spend 100k words on a thread for a Cat 1 that barely makes landfall
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Feels more like a mid-October storm with the temps and overall synoptic pattern ahead and behind it. Chilly in the east. edit: also noticeable is the drop in intensity is now uniform in all hurricane models once in northern gulf, likely reacting to dry air/sheer accompanying the trough.
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Ironically, Levi mentions a stronger solution early is more likely to tug west as it feels impacts of northeasterly sheer.
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CMC has temps in the low 50s in NW South Carolina at landfall. More like a nor’easter.
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GFS already 300 miles NE of 6z
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The mean is Mobile after a landfall in Cancun
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I meant post FL crossing
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Which is weird. Still think that trough would shove it OTS.
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GFS ensemble further SW as well. Looks like a cluster into New Orleans.
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Might get a Cancun landfall edit: it does, totally new solution here
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GFS noticeably southwest of 6z
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Bus ticket to Atlanta on 6z
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Most GEFS members that cross over to the Atlantic side look to be heading OTS however
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TS force winds all the way up to Atlanta
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As others have pointed out, Bermuda is not really a “traditional tropical island”… heck, their new airport is nicer than any in the US
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All of the Euro ensemble solutions that threaten US landfall basically dissipate Fiona over Hispaniola which allows it to survive and get caught up in the westerlies flow. It still gets caught by the mega trough later on. Low probability outcome.
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Really concerned for Bermuda as well
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Just watched. Great synopsis. Does mention that even if it does get closer to NA, the mega trough would clean it up.
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We may need to shift our concern/tracking to potential impacts on Bermuda if the GFS is to be believed; potential cat 4/5 bearing down.
