HeadInTheClouds

18 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Hopefully the coastal low will form more south and east for us. NWS said that the GFS model has a bias of forming the storms farther south and east than the other models out there. That was in there discussion last night.

GFS is on it's own little island of misfit toys. It is still colder and hasn't backed down on totals at 12z but I'm not buying it. I think we see no more than an inch or 2. 

It's going to be very difficult to accumulate east of Hudson in the valley. I'm surprised Poughkeepsie is even that much. 

GFS says I'll see you and raise you 48 hours before start time. 

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

RGEM is better but becoming clear you need to be well NW, probably NW of I-84 and with some elevation to see a good event from this. The strong southerly flow at mid levels and easterly flow at the surface-not a good combo. 

It's actually worse east of the Hudson. 

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Temps already dropping to the upper teens in some mid Hudson Valley locations over to  western New England. That snow pack makes the temps drop fast.

It does, plus clear skies and calm wind. Got down to 10 last night and right now 19. 

18z GFS still a colder solution. 

8 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Now go look at the 3k 18z Nam  it’s night and day colder smh 

It is colder which would have an impact on NW Jersey. I'm all for colder solutions. 

18z Nam slightly warmer but still shows decent front end dump over interior but you need to be 50 miles N and W. 

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It was different because it was rain for most of the event, even for NW New Jersey. It comes in much warmer and NW New Jersey gets its accumulation only due to a changeover near the end. As Jm1220 said you want a front end thump from this event, and 0z NAM doesn't hava a front end thump at all. Of course it's just 1 run and could be wrong. 0z RGEM does have a nice front end thump for NW areas. 

Nam is a tad warmer but does have a front end dump N and W. 

46 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0z NAM just came in very warm. You have to go to extreme NW Jersey to see snow on this run. NW Jersey gets its accumulation at the end of the event with the rain changing over to snow on this run.  Looks similar to 12z Euro with the warm solution.  

It didn't look that different to me and it gives snow to places N and W. 

That same map using kuchera is considerably less which makes sense. 

18z GFS - Oh how I wish. 

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Depends on your choice of model.  The GFS would be over 12” of snow.  The CMC would be 4-8” of snow going over to an extended period of sleet.  The Euro is still quite warm and would be mostly rain after some frozen/ freezing precip to start.  FWIW the NAM which usually leads the way with mid level warming was going cold with this one on the 12z run (at least initially).

The Euro is warm but I still think parts of the interior see a front end dump of snow that most other models show. There is a definite CAD signature to support frozen at the onset. How long and how much is still in question. The coast is basically toast on this one but still hope for others. 

30 and still some light snow. 3.5 OTG. 

30 with moderate snow, 2 inches OTG. 

31 with light snow. Dusting on colder surfaces. 

00z Nam 3k

And north in Albany NWS zone: 

Euro brings in colder air as low moves east and gets some snow to the coast eventually. Still long way to go with this. 

Expected NYS totals tomorrow and tomorrow night. 

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Yeh… just like Thursday looks too

Someone’s gonna do very well on the interior sections tomorrow

Yup. I'm looking at 2-4 in MHV. Poconos and Catskills could get 6 with this. 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Event is still 6 days out and hasn't happened yet 

Yeah no kidding. Euro, CMC, and even ICON had a secondary developing and affecting the area with rain/snow days ago. GFS had a weak low headed to Bermuda. 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It's not horrible if it ends up right

Yes it is. Most models correct as we get closer in time to an event. The GooFuS is always late to the party and frequently on it's own little Island. All other major models were showing a coastal low days before the GFS. This model has major issues. 

10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Not surprisingly the GFS brought the storm back, but it's warm for the coast. Have to go well to the northwest to see snow. 12z GGEM is also a big rainstorm. Obviously plenty of time for this to trend colder. 

GFS decided to come back to planet earth at 12z. Horrible model. There is still plenty of time with this and hopefully we some eastern progression with the developing low instead of a rainstorm for most.