HeadInTheClouds

Icon still going with the offshore low thing for Sunday night/Monday. 

26 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Lake Placid…unfrozen. 

This is remarkable. Lake Placid is usually an icebox in mid January. 

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Inland areas are also struggling 

Yup. I'm in Dutchess county 20 miles north of 84 and I have only 5 inches so far. It's something but still sucks. 

28 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Unfortunately this ends up as a phase-up and NOT where the Euro had it last night but right off the central NJ coast--coast hugger. A cold rain, probably 34 and rain. Last night's run colder and snowier with no phase and the southern system ending up further s and e.

WX/PT

Good for well N and W not that I trust any operational beyond 5 days anyway. 

30 breezy and cloudy. Feels like winter. 

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You seriously don't see a good pattern? LOL

Both the CMC and Euro show something interesting at the end of their runs. May be fools gold but I'm still watching the last week in January. 

33 with some light snow, coating. 

23 right now. 

The roads are all white because they dumped a ton of salt down. Does that count as a white Christmas? 

Buffalo is going to get another 5 feet on top of what they have already received this year. Not to mention the bone chilling cold and 60MPH winds. 

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

winds were a bigger deal here but rains busted....some good sized limbs down around town.

Yeah, my brother in law who lives in Southbury had a tree come down. Nothing like that here. 

This storm really hasn't been that big of a deal in the HV. 2 inches of rain and max gust of 35. Right now 35 with some light snow that barely coated the ground and almost done. 

34 and just turned to rain. It was almost moderate snow for a while and was sticking. 

33 with steady light snow right now. Still hanging on to an inch of snow OTG which will be gone by midnight. Hoping for a c-1 miracle with cold front passage. 

Western NY is in for it again. It could be really dangerous with winds gusting to 65 MPH, lake effect snow, and very cold temps. Power outages could be a real problem. 

CMC is usually the first to sniff these things out so it is something to watch. 

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Less than that. They literally flipped in 24 hours from an epic extended look to a big rainstorm and warmth.

In my mind day 10 onwards on the ensembles are extinct like the weeklies.

Yup. I trust nothing in the 10+ day range.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Weren't those ensembles showing extended cold about a week ago and the talk was of a cold first half of January? 

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

If you look at the same timeframe on Pivotal weather it looks nothing like this. I'm not buying it. 

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

While here in Syracuse we are at 50% of normal snowfall for where we should be right now. Rochester still hasn't had the ground covered.

That's crazy. I would have expected Rochester to get something at least. 

Buffalo's totals this month are going to be insane. 

Why is it so damn hard to get a white Christmas in this area, especially in the HV? It's been a long time. 

56 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This is another example of the CMC being a much better model than GFS. I think it even picked up on next week's storm being a cutter before the Euro. The CMC has done pretty well with winter storm threats the last couple years. It's a pretty good model. 

Even worse than next week's storm not working out is the pattern really breaking down in late December. It looks like a big warmup going into New Year's weekend. The great pattern that we were supposed to have is likely going to be a big bust. 

I agree about the CMC. It's been very good and often is the first to recognize things before other models and it's generally consistent run to run. I look at the CMC/RGEM before any other models.  

I hope my friends in Michigan enjoy their blizzard. Bastards. 

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Aimless, clueless, lost. That’s the Jets. Hopefully not GFS

The Jets are actually good. Wilson is not.