HeadInTheClouds

Both CMC and Euro bring a significant storm to the area with a mixed bag  but also bring snow even to the coast while GFS sends a weak low to Bermuda. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Models basically held serve. GFS still lost. 

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The GFS went from a deep trough to ridge in one run. The GFS is garbage 

It's having serious issues. 

GFS shows nothing once again and is a sheared out mess. CMC still has the storm. 

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Oh ok. Maybe so. Are u an admin??

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. He was a troll. 

Did Snowman get banned? This is where he makes an appearance to tell us why the GFS is correct even though he hates the GFS. 

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

I think the extreme south solution for the late week storm that the last 2 GFS runs are showing is unlikely, but we can't rule it out. Suppression is at least a slight possibility if the blocking is too strong. 

It's good that it looks likely that we're gonna have an extended cold pattern in here for mid to late December, and obviously it gives us a decent possibility of scoring at some point. But we do have the possibility of it just being a cold/dry pattern. Hopefully that won't be the case, but it's a slight concern with the level of blocking. 

Nothing can be ruled out from an inland runner to a miss but It's just so flat and the low so far south and weak IMO. I just think the Euro and CMC are much more plausible. I would be shocked if the GFS is correct. 

Please just decommission the GFS. 

8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

With the volatility already baked into this month and the massive changes made to the system the past 48 hours I wouldn’t expect to start seeing a more coherent and well supported outcome until the back end of the weekend at least. 
 

This is why you can't jump off the ledge with each model run a week out with so much in play. 

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS

 

CMC was great but this is one ugly run. 

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not sure either the 12th or 16th will work out here. They are both embedded in the pattern transition phase. 

12th doesn't have much room to amplify and the 16th has a primary that's way too far north to start. 

It's likely after the 16th where we get our favorable pattern. Getting the 16th storm to work out would be a major bonus

Anything outside the 5 day period needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The model variations have been extreme this season 

It depends on what you mean by here because I could see both working out to some degree just N and W. Still too early to tell about the 16th. 

I feel the system on the 16th may produce more than the first one. That blocking means business. 

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

There is no cold air. Even overnight lows up this way are just below freezing.

you need a thread the needle event to manufacture cold air.

 

There is enough cold air for it to snow especially N and W. Wet bulbing helps too. 

23 minutes ago, TriPol said:

how does the euro look?

Minor event, mostly N and W for the first one. 

14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Put me down for an order of this. It's just nice to look at. 

It's fantasy land but we can pray to the weather Gods. I find it funny that yesterday people were lamenting how warm and wet the GFS looked mid-late month. 

CMC, LOL

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has some snow for northern areas

More than a few well north. CMC looking robust also. 

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who would have thought that 

Shocker

22 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm not taking issue with any of that.  But I'm willing to bet that in 10 years whatever version exists of the American medium range model will be better than it is now.  Which is why I think running the 240 - 384 hour op forecasts might be useful for future benchmarking.  I don't use extended op runs from any of the current model suite for planning, although I sometimes enjoy the eye candy they print out.

Yeah but it costs money to run it out to 16 days I would guess. Medium range to me is is 5-7 day time frame and I doubt there will even be a time where the 10 day period is anything but a low verification. 2 week time frames with op models will always be like throwing darts with your eyes closed. It serves no purpose. 

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's over, I was amped up and holding steady until I saw the 18z GFS. Next year may hold promise.

Some people actually think that. 

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If we don't run it, how will we know when it gets better?

When what gets better? Verification scores 10 days out are low. To have an op model, and a crap model at that, go out 16 days is useless. 

5 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

6z vs 12z Dec 18

straight up comedy

This is the perfect example of why I keep saying that running the op out beyond 240 hours is a complete waste of time. 

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If the euro agrees again than the gfs should be thrown int he shredder. I can't even think how many times there have been different solutions. 

The GFS is trash in mid term time frame and an absolute dumpster fire beyond that. It had rain up to Canada with next weekend system as late as 00z run last night and that was obviously not going to happen. I would take both the CMC and Euro over that crap model any day of the week in nearly any scenario. 

10 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yup. On it's own lol. Still

Gfs will cave. It will just take another day or 2. 

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Few threats to watch mid month on the GFS

Cmc has a big coastal at 240

These runs keep changing every suite. 

We know operationals are garbage beyond 5 days. I still have no idea why the GFS goes out 16 days. It's as useless as tits on a bull.