HRRR removes heat fast this evening. It takes 2m temp in the triad to 32 around 5pm - down to 24 at 7 pm. It bottoms out in the mid teens in NC Piedmont where there’s a nice snowpack. This seems a bit overdone based on forecasts.
Hi res NAM is much warmer and slower to radiate. Doesn’t drop to freezing until midnight, bottoming out in the mid 20s in northern NC, tapering to 32 towards SC line. This seems warm even if the clouds are stubborn.
RGEM is somewhere in between the two and seems most reasonable. Drops to 32 between 6-7pm, bottoming out pretty close to everyones official forecast low.