OrdIowPitMsp

6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Can't wait for the GFS to cave in a day or two

It’s holding firm on the 00z run. 

Models looks pretty good for my area so that probably means we’re doomed. 

I like the look along the arctic front next week. 

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Crazy storm out there.  And I don't know about you but I take slight satisfaction that those kind of totals happened well inland and not in the I-95 cities.  

Yeah I’m with you on that, moral victory. Although I did go to NYC for the January 2016 storm and also don’t want that record broken. 

I’m driving to Colorado on Xmas eve so you can probably lock in a Minneapolis special between then and January 3rd. 

Got down to 9F imby overnight. Would have been well below zero with some snowpack.

I’ll take more days of snowcover and true “beavis style” winter weather, over one or two big dogs a season. East coast climate is feast or famine. 
 

35 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Congrats.  You just got more than I have seen this fall/winter.

Thanks. It’s these little waves that models don’t pick up until inside 24hrs that keep me sane when the weather is this boring. 
 

0.4” with the little wave here yesterday. Every last flake stuck so at these there’s that.

Getting a coating of snow with the cold front this afternoon. Top December event. 

Looks like a respectable 5.7" reported in DSM, should finish over 6" there. Nice overachiever for them. 

07-08 I was a senior in high school. Southern lake county did very well, I remember a handful of snow days and early dismissals that year. Wish I kept an accurate measurement imby. 

4 hours ago, hlcater said:

I was being sarcastic. I think that poster mixed up MSP and MSN.

That makes sense, Madison should do well.

49 minutes ago, hlcater said:

damn they're killing it up there! Considering driving up for this one.

My backyard is the red dot. Unless I’m missing something we are out of the game. Drive to Columbus Wisconsin or Baraboo.

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020

The upper-level pattern for the rest of the week continues to show
ridging. There are a few changes/trends in the latest model runs for
this weekends potential winter storm. Models are now in better
agreement in taking the storm through the Great Lakes with no
appreciable precipitation for the MPX CWA. 12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC develop
a surface low near the Arkansas/Missouri border and track it southern
lower Michigan Saturday night. Ensembles lend more support toward
this solution with only a few outliers developing a phased system
that would track further north and west. So, what has changed since
yesterday? The northern stream of the jet appears more progressive.
This changes the jet dynamics for the potential storm. A more
progressive northern stream limits potential jet phasing resulting in
a weaker low-pressure system that tracks further southeast. Models
also slow the southern trough, keeping it positively tilted as wave
struggles to eject out of the southern CONUS. My suspicion is that
the trend toward a weaker system to the south and east will continue
if previous systems are any indication this year. Guidance may trend
it back toward the north and west as we get closer to the end of
week, but the bulk of the QPF should remain away from the CWA. This
is a highly complex set up in a split-flow pattern that should
deliver a winter storm for someone, just not for us. Looking beyond
the weekend, cooler weather returns behind the system with high
temperatures near freezing. A few weak systems are possible next
week, the first should track to the north with a chance for light
precipitation Tuesday afternoon.

3 hours ago, Baum said:

positive point of view for the win. "That's a damn rare thing these days"- Del Griffith.

Always gotta be optimistic. Plus my ski resort can make snow.  
 

Benefit of a south shunted system for me is cold air and clear skies. 
 

Steel grey overcast is lovely but a change up every so often is nice. 

GFS shunts this weekends storm way south and weak. 

8 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Instead of low cutting over Cedar Rapids looks to move over Waukegan on the 12Z

Pretty abrupt shift south and weaker. Not going to put much faith into location at this point just glad to see a storm on consecutive cycles. 

Most of the lakes are iced over here now, but not thick enough for ice houses. Did see the neighborhood kids building a rink on the lake yesterday. I wouldn’t go out on the ice yet but they had no problem skating in the shallow areas. 

Might be something interesting brewing for Minnesota this weekend. Stay tuned.

0.2” with the wave last evening. Most excitement we’ve seen or will see in some time. 

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Would be interesting to see how the general public would remember 2000-01.  That was an extreme front loaded winter.  Would it be remembered as a tame winter?  

I was in 5th grade that winter. I’ll never forget the 40” December and how deep the snow seemed to get. That month and the blizzard of 99’ made me a snow weenie. The only other thing I remember about that season was a storm in mid March that dumped ~6”

Short wave just dropped through and produced a dusting. Nice to see something.