Jump to content

BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,026

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by BTRWx's Thanks Giving

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, frd said:

    Looking at the trends in the guideance the last few days, even the last week of October is shaping up not to be as cold as was originally forecasted a week ago.  

    I think the cold shifts West in November and although not extreme we go  back to a AN temp pattern.  

    Exactly what we need for djf!

    • Like 1

    October Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    59 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

    Your defense has really improved and definitely won the game for you.

    Maybe for the run defense.  Every week there's at least one deep downfield blown coverage play!

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

    I personally don't buy into 50 degree water in the gulf of AK providing meaningful forcing in the mid/upper levels. I just think the existence of "the blob" is a response to predominant weather patterns in the area. If a big GoA vortex wants to set up it's going to do it regardless of AN temps in the region. The equatorial region is different. Warm and cold water there definitely makes a big difference in hemispheric patterns.  

    Same with the north atlantic near Greenland. Water has been BN there for multiple years in a row but the NAO has been raging positive to it makes sense.  

    Do I think there can be a feedback of sorts in both regions? Yes, I think it's possible for sure. I just don think the water temps in the north atlantic or pacific drive the surface, mid and upper levels over long periods of time. I think it works the other way around.  

    There are differing opinions on this so I'm just stating the way I look at it. If someone can show me viable research that connects SSTAs in the north atlantic and Pacific driving the bus with surface and upper level patterns I'll change my mind. 

    Here's a start. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL063306%4010.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007.CALDROUGHT1

    On the blob..."For the southern portion of the high SLP anomaly, weaker than normal winds from the west induced anomalously weak Ekman transports of colder water from the north. An additional contribution was made by a near‐normal eastward component of the current acting on a preexisting zonal gradient in the SST anomaly distribution."

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, frd said:

    Maybe this leads to a warmer November , but I think if this happens then it lessens the use of 2009 as a analog.  Speculation only....

     

    I think a warm November is exactly what we need for a memorable winter.

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    14 hours ago, poolz1 said:

    Reading between the lines a bit....Looks like a quick start to winter, a pull back in Jan (but doable) and then a classic el nino Feb/Mar

     

    I'm pretty sure that a classic March el nino is early spring.

    October Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    On 10/16/2018 at 6:25 AM, mattie g said:

    The atmosphere around social media (including forums) has deteriorated greatly in the last few years. I agree that a big winter would help things, but that would just be slapping on some (awesome) plaster on those cracks.

    I will always advocate for minimizing the real social media banter that's more public than here.  Banter should still have filters and it starts with all of us.  I'm not necessarily saying we need more moderation, just that we can make this a better place for everyone! :wub:

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

    Here's what I'm talking about from another year... a very good one. Lol. We want the western side of the npac to move towards this. 02-03 success was driven by a persistant +pna more than the ao/nao. Some similarity in the eastern npac right now. Heh. 

    anomnight.10.12.2002.gif

    Bastardi is all over that analog!  October CONUS temps are close to a mirror image with the torch start transition to negative late.

    October Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, fourseasons said:

    The Ravens lose with 2 seconds left in OT courtesy of a 37-yard field goal that barely cleared the crossbar (and it wasn't deflected).  The Browns' kicker had a 69% FG accuracy rate at Florida Atlantic and had missed an extra point earlier in this game.

    If the FG wasn't good it would have been the 3rd or 4th tie so far this season.  The NFL may want to consider doing something about that.

    Can you believe that last kick was good? lol

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

    We're on the same exact page probably. Cold ninos are weak or mod and come with a neg ao/nao. Back half of 02-03 was kinda weird because when blocking relaxed the +pna stepped in. It was a great door to door nino winter with no extended warm spells. PD2 was refreshed several times into March and snowcover days late in the season were remarkable. 

    I can easily see how we can go below normal temp wise but it will require the string of +ao/nao Decembers to end this year. Need to start off on the right foot. I'll reserve enthusiasm until I can see it inside of 2 weeks. 

    :huh:

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

    I don't think temp analogs pre 2000 are as useful anymore unfortunately. I could see a BN DJF if persistent blocking sets up early. Won't know how that breaks for at least 6 weeks. If the ao/nao are positive during Dec then the chances of BN DJF goes down significantly. I'm just sharing my guesses. I'll get excited for cold and snow when things look good at reasonable leads. Basically when I'm eating turkey and staring at ens runs with a big red ball at h5 over Greenland and/or the pole. A big blue ball in those areas and I'll keep my shorts and flip-flops handy

    What about CIPS?

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Nino's generally aren't cold winters. Weak is the best chance. Just going off recent Nino's since 2000 and warmer background conditions. Even with 09-10's exceptionally high snowfall the winter itself wasn't very cold. The Feb back to back storms melted fast. Same with the Dec storm. We did have some solid cold in Jan/early Feb tho but it was also a record blocking year. 

    I don't put much stock in seasonal models when it comes to temps but the cfs and CanSips are AN DJF. Jamstec is also AN iirc. That's not why I think this winter will be at or above normal though. Just going off of climo and the fact that the northern hemisphere has been running warm for years in general. 

    I've always gone off this generally which shows a -T tendency for nino years. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

     

    1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

    I like everything I see so far. Broad brush looks like not a particularly cold winter. Prob AN DJF but to get warning level events we either need lots of luck or a southern stream. Unless there's some sort of gross reversal with enso, seems like odds favor at least one or more warning level event. Prob back half of winter for the close burbs. Total wag but AN Dec temps could spoil a good track storm. If I lived in the northern tier I would be cautiously excited already. 

    We can hold off on Dec analysis for another 6 weeks tho. No sense worrying about things that far out in time. 

    What shows +Ts?

×
×
  • Create New...