Thinksnow18

If you look at that almanac data set were due to receive a big Christmas event.

Yep that’s it!

Good memory it was December 26th through the 29th and that was the 83” in west Seneca over those 4 days...that event spread the wealth from southern Niagara county to the nearby south towns with West Seneca the jackpot...I do believe KBUF broke a daily record though...BW any help?

Lmao and if you look at the article the 12+ inch line is like one mile south of my area in Williamsville...still think hard 5 miles northward.

2 things...one it is snowing a little right now as I have a very thin layer of slush on my lawn and pool cover...2 the Cincinnati bengals must really love the Bills because they’re up 17-0 on Pittsburgh near the end of the half...

This radar pic is a perfect example of BW earlier point about the lake bands being 5 to 10 miles north of their model. The band is refracted on the land northward where if the water wax colder the band would be further south...the bend is pretty noticeable but even more so on the WIVB weather radar.

Nope...all rain.

Agreed

You’re back!!! I know it’s real when you show up...

Notice the LP over Superior...this is the reason winds go SW not the low itself...look at the top panel it’s in all models.

You feel the burn. Early season LES always ends up further north than modeled. Every time. Models always struggle with this. This is not to say the heaviest snows will be over northern Erie but I promise you it will not be a shutout either.

See that LP just east of Lake Superior? That’s what makes this originally a SW wind event, once that moves east the winds will shift as well.

I’m into the meso models starting tomorrow. All guidance is in the SW flow. How long it lasts Is the question.

No it’s not. And just like December 2001 this looks to give a wide swath a good dumping of snow all across Erie County...in fact it might be a scenario where central/Northern Erie do better that southern Erie.

Wow

So going by the point and click for Williamsville it has snow heavy at times for Christmas Day then snow before 1am then snow showers after. Snow could be heavy at times. If this came to fruition I would totally take 10 hours of LES before it shifts south.

I think it’s this timeframe the northern burbs pick up their share. Once the synoptic stops and pure LES takes over I think the vector changes to a more WSW and that’s when Hamburg, Orchard park, south Buffalo and West Seneca get smoked.

Well said D

Yeah that’s odd also...snow falling at night is always the best accumulation potential

Trusting the euro for LES amounts is like trusting a politician for a favor

Yep... like I said euro is struggling

One thing I’ve noticed over the years from following significant lake events is they are difficult to shit down completely especially a string band. Many times either warm air advection or dry air can be overcome just by the warmer lake waters and a uniform flow...directional winds kill and sheer a band apart but I’m not seeing this yet...I remember as a kid in NT (this is way back in the 80’s) a band moved north into southern Niagara (rare back then) and we picked up almost a foot of snow before it dissipated, but what I remember very well is how water laden the snow was...we built forts and snowmen and it almost rolled perfectly. I think once that S/W moves near us Saturday night Sunday that band moves back north with enough oomph to still cause problems.

Euro has been a mess lately...more erratic then Brittany spears driving with her baby in her car...

Agreed

Damn they actually put northeast of the lakes in there...that’s a big step for KBUF