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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Monty Brewster said it best...none of the above
  2. Thinksnow18
    Yeah that sounds right.
  3. Thinksnow18
    Is it looking more like a high advisory event for the synoptic in your opinion?
  4. Thinksnow18
    There are going to be more opportunities I think this year for a big LES event for the metro as I believe this pattern with blocking over Greenland is conducive to retrograding lows that can get hung up over the central Great Lakes
  5. Thinksnow18
    The way the models are trending they may keep the WSW up for the synoptic part if the Euro is to be believed.
  6. Thinksnow18
    Yeah looking at the models this morning I thing our chances of a big event in the metro have gone away. The synoptic looks like our bigger snowfall out of the 2 events. In fact this map would almost make this a west/nw wind judging by the heaviest accumulation near Erie PA...what a change
  7. Thinksnow18
    As that low moves north so does the Band.
  8. Thinksnow18
    Now shift that band 5 to 10 miles north due to warmer lake waters.
  9. Thinksnow18
    My guess is it won’t make it much past the Erie-Niagara county boarded. There is a strong convergence that should set up somewhere in far northern Erie-southern Niagara which would not allow the band to move much further north...heaviest snows occur right where that convergence is but will have a wider band south of it with somewhat “lighter snows” I still like 1 foot plus over all of Erie and now maybe southern Niagara as well. I still think this is not much of a southern Erie event at all.
  10. Thinksnow18
    The NAM has handled this event horribly...it’s in its own for the major globals and its westward position.
  11. Thinksnow18
    Do you have the write up for that event?
  12. Thinksnow18
    I think what it was for me is maybe the in-house models of the local Mets all said “ shifting south, southward drift” and for about 20 hours it never did. This event has a similar look to it with the map above.
  13. Thinksnow18
    We should be pretty confident that the r ent will happen... in my mind (frightening) this may never get below the Buffalo south towns...reminds me of January 2019. We had about 24” in the north towns and the entire time the band was to be on the move, never happened. There are a lot of signals this may be a metro event meandering north and south from time to time.
  14. Thinksnow18
    Awfully quiet on here for a pretty decent event only 48 hours out...
  15. Thinksnow18
    I don’t think it’s out of the possibility if we get 3” hour rates to see a top 10 daily at KBUF
  16. Thinksnow18
    Todd on WIVB is saying 3-6 fir the synoptic for far WNY and an additional foot for all of Erie including metro and both burbs north and south...that’s already 12”-18”
  17. Thinksnow18
    I never want to bring up ‘85 as it’s up there with ‘77 in many respects but this is hinting at some of our bigger events in LES history
  18. Thinksnow18
    I agree this has equal opportunity all over it
  19. Thinksnow18
    Wow...this just keeps getting better and better...
  20. Thinksnow18
    Tim don’t look at the snow totals look at the MSLP... the band is center cut over Buffalo.
  21. Thinksnow18
    Buffalo would get smashed with LES in that scenario
  22. Thinksnow18
    The way I’m interpreting things, which is often distorted normally, is that the mean flow as of now is SW with some members showing SSW...if it’s the latter then the verbiage says the band only moves a little south overnight which would jackpot us. If it’s the former we still get about 6 to 10 hours of +SN and about a foot...I cautiously like where we’re at right now
  23. Thinksnow18
    Come on D I know this has you getting more excited
  24. Thinksnow18
    Nahhhh were southern end at worst at best were smack middle.
  25. Thinksnow18
    Can I put multiple likes or “weenie” likes on this? This basically calls this a metro event
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