Thinksnow18

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Right in the edge of 4-6”

Down to 45 in Williamsville…a bit early? Guidance was in the low 50’s until noon or so. I’m guessing due to the rate of rain puling  down colder air?

14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Just as NWS gets more excited, I’m getting less. The 6z runs (other than GFS) we’re very unimpressive. Even Toronto looks as it may suffer from lack of precip. 
Long range looks fantastic! ‘Winters over’ crowd will have to take a powder. 

Yeah it appears the GFS is pretty amps with the second wave. IF right then it could be a good night.

20 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

6Z GFS looks decent for BUF and maybe to ROC.  It even manages a couple/few inches into the SizzleCuse.  Down to 3-4" of snowpack.. but the mild air feels good this a.m.

KBUF mentions, finally, IF the cold air moves in faster Then Niagara And Orleans counties could achieve warning criteria snows, which would in turn bump up the counties just to the south, more northern Erie and genesee counties to 4-6 

28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Latest GFS

So northern Erie gets an ice storm, Niagara county gets warning level snow…makes sense

Just now, rochesterdave said:

Pretty epic cave by EURO. What happened to that model?

Agreed…makes it look like a wave runner. GFS still brings the goods

49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Ice storm? 

That’s the first real mention of it but it looks to be increasingly likely…IF that was correct…look out…would be 2006 all over except it would be ice doing us in

4 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Heaviest axis now well within WNY. Gonna be interesting. 

And KBUF not buying…not surprised 

5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Can you post? 

I’m beginning to like far western NY for an advisory event 4-6” Thursday night. Appears the frontal wave is slowing down a bit allowing the front to move through further and changing the rain to snow sooner. 

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Can you turn it into a transformer that has ice skates, floating innertubes, and mud wheels on it for a variety of conditions?

Cool mike you are now Optimus mike going forward 

34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

End of next week into the first week of March looks fun on this recent run... Check out Canada. lol

Kuchie kuchie

Dear god Johnson what is that flying…

1 minute ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

True. I could honestly do without the rain, but it looks inevitable at this point.

NWS Buffalo looking at advisory type snow accumulation Thursday night. 

8 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I have to agree for the most part, although I wouldn't want to experience a tornado - I'm a much bigger fan of winter severe weather as opposed to summer severe.

Extremes are the way to go though. Ideally, I like at least one 12" snowfall per year, one "zero day" per winter, and one 95 degree day in the summer. I couldn't handle living in a place like Seattle or Vancouver. Not enough variance in the weather, and I really dislike cold rain in the winter.

That’s the same as San Diego, phoenix ir even Miami. Having the “seasons” we enjoy bring variability and excitement. Living in one of those areas would be akin to living in Syracuse or some desolate, snowless area…

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

So UK/ICON/GEM Vs GFS/EURO. Anyone taking left side?

Oddly it’s now everyone vs. the GFS 

5 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro is now on board, not as far south as ggem. but on board for accumulating snow buf to art 

NWS mentions this exact scenario in the early morning AFD. Even discuss potential winter headlines 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Band is pretty close to @Thinksnow18

Big puff bombs, about an inch down of pure air. 

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Very similar.

If you look at the 12 z it almost looks to develop a second wave as the front slows down. I wonder what 18z has in store

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Can see the high pressure was quicker in sliding it further SE this run

If not mistaken, isn’t this an almost IDENTICAL situation as the last storm? We were supposed to torch wed-Thur that next week and as Monday hit we were looking at a snowstorm instead?…

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its close for the next cutter but GEFS look amped enough to give us all rain. GEM is more suppressed. Euro sends snow into northern Michigan, similar to GFS

I’m hanging my hat on a more suppressed look. The HP in Canada look strong enough to at least flex the LP track in a favorable position. At least that’s my hope…

9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

..and Jim Cantore.

"I can barely walk as the snow piles up to the bottom of my shoelace!"

When your Aglets are covered it’s real

56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I added syr and bing. Yeah something is up there.

There is no way we finished the warmest of the other reporting stations

7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Still on the fence enough but def been trending the wrong way to keep winter going.  At least it’s looking to stay active.  Worst thing now would be a slow 2-3 week warmup slowly eating away at the pack.  If it’s gonna go let’s torch it with some heavy rain so I can go on ice jam crick watch!  

It could be an epic flood if that were to happen.

Looks like our run of winter is coming to a crashing halt, at least if the GFS is to be used. Many warm weather lows the next 2 weeks putting us close to end of the month. It doesn’t go in our favor at that point. 

26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Another couple weeks and I will be there. Doesn't take much to get my winter fix in. I just hope we don't get 40s and cold, cloudy, and rainy like we've had the last few years in late March-early May. That's the most depressing weather there is. The last few years we've skipped spring right to summer. 

I feel last spring was decent but this statement is correct. The springs around here are highly unusable until mid the late May and at that point we try to cram in hundreds of activities into 4 months.

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

KBUF recording station is at our airport. 5 miles north of airport probably averages 75" a year while 5 miles south probably averages 110" a year.

Its similar for SYR recording station. They are located north of the city and average 124" per. If it was 5 miles south of SYR they would average like 90" per.

Fact. The early January LES event was perfect proof. Airport 18.6”; 3 miles north in my neighborhood about 12” and 2 miles north 2-3” very defined sharp cutoff.