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Thinksnow18

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    Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 
    Southwest flow continuing tonight ahead of an approaching arctic
boundary. This will continue to keep the potential for accumulating
lake snows east of Lake Ontario. Depth of synoptic moisture
increases and improves the potential for accumulations which will
last into Sunday, as the arctic boundary drops through. Several
inches of snow is certainly possible especially on the Tug Hill.

Conditions to look favorable for the development snow squalls on
Sunday, especially during the afternoon as the arctic front presses
through. A 45-50 knot low level jet will be passing overhead,
bringing the potential for gusty winds. Any snow squalls will move
southeast along and behind the front, with briefly intense snowfall
rates around 1"/hr and gusts up to 45 mph. Any wet roadways will
freeze quickly as temperatures plummet behind the boundary.

      

    Strong cold air advection continues behind a cold front Sunday
night. Lake effect snow showers will develop south of the Lakes as
flow veers from west-northwest to northwest. Conditions improve for
lake effect snow south of Lake Ontario as 850mb temperatures fall to
-18C and inversion heights become 5-6k feet. The RGEM suggests the
Genesee Valley to the Finger Lakes as the most favorable spot for
minor accumulations into Monday morning. Cold Sunday night with
temperatures in the single digits across western NY to the minus
single digits east of Lake Ontario.

    Notice no mention of Lake Erie??? All need a new profession. 

    • Haha 1

    Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

    Nope and I think all the models are overdoing the ice coverage on Lake Erie. What ice there is isn’t even solid and can still transport moisture through it. I had a job yesterday in Angola right on the lake in a 3 story house on top of a dune and could see out into the lake pretty far when it wasn’t snowing and there’s tons of open water as far as I could see past the first mile or so out which was ice but could still see slush and open pockets of water in that. 

    Agreed. Every satellite pic of Lake Erie have shown great open areas on the East end and slush ice in the central basin. Snowing moderately here now as well and this could surprise.

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