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Thinksnow18

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    Potential of Widespread Snow/ Mixed Precipitation 2/25

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: 
    ..Winter Headlines Possible Thursday Night through Friday...

Thursday will be mainly dry as a light northerly wind persists
across the region. Flow in the mid-levels becomes southerly and warm
air advection begins from south to north across the region Thursday.
Temperatures remain cold at the surface with highs in the low to mid
20s and low 30s across the far western Southern Tier. The pattern
becomes amplified Thursday night as a shortwave trough tracks across
the Plains. A dual upper level jet structure will aide in further
development of surface low pressure over the central/southern
Appalachians while a secondary low forms off the east coast late
Thursday night. Increasing moisture will occur across New York State
while warm air advection increases. A widespread snow fall will move
into western NY late Thursday evening and become widespread across
western NY overnight. Snow will likely reach the North Country late
Thursday night. As warm air continues to surge northward 850mb
temperatures will approach 0C across the far western Southern Tier
by Friday morning. The primary surface low will move into western
Pennsylvania while the 850mb low is over Lake Erie. There might be a
window of a few hours that mixed precipitation moves into locations
near the NY/PA border Friday morning. For Thursday night, a
widespread 1-3 inches of snow is possible across the North Country
to the Finger Lakes and Niagara Frontier and 2-5 inches south in the
western Southern Tier Thursday night. Lower confidence in snow
totals across the western Southern Tier due to the chance of a
changeover to a wintry mix. More precipitation expected into Friday,
see below.

The approaching shortwave trough will move overhead Friday while the
primary surface low over western Pennsylvania phases rapidly with
the coastal low. An intensifying upper level jet over northern New
England and phasing surface lows will shift deeper moisture and
large scale ascent rapidly to the coast. Snow will continue Friday
as an easterly moisture fetch persists across the region. Cold air
will wrap around the surface low resulting in lake enhancement by
Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Any chance of a wintry mix
across the western Southern Tier Friday morning will quickly end as
cold air moves into the region later Friday. Additional snowfall
accumulation of a few inches is possible Friday-Friday evening.
Winter Weather Headlines are possible from Thursday night through
Friday night. Temperatures will reach the 20s across most of the
region Friday with some low to mid 30s near the NY/PA border. Cold,
Friday night with temperatures in the single digits across the
region.

Lake effect snow will continue on the backside of this system
Saturday and Saturday night. Snow showers will likely start south-
southeast of the Lakes Saturday and move northward into Saturday
night. Another shortwave trough may move into the Great Lakes Sunday
into Monday resulting in another chance for snow showers across the
region

    I’d like to say I’ve never seen the NWS so confused but I’d be lying…

    • Haha 2

    Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

    While the mean looks solid on the eps , still a decent spread amongst members which is to be expected, obviously lol

    Some are south, some are north and you get the mean lol Big difference between a couple inches and double digits..

    Wolfie you’re the guru of NWS text posts…any idea where/why the NWS stated a lull in precip for Thursday night??? Do they have a secret model or are they just losing it???

    Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    3 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

    Snow pack held on no problem here. Still at least 6” of pack. Huge difference between my place and my work in Hamburg with much more snow otg here. Must have been that extra lake effect event where I got over 14” in between synoptic storms that really helped because the difference between here and Hamburg is unreal for such a short distance. Snowing nicely out now. 
     

     

    FB8C1B4D-BFA6-45F9-ABF5-887D3ABA677B.jpeg

    Never officially lost my pack in Williamsville either, about 3” we’re left in the yard picked up about 4” over night and snowing lightly ATM. 

    Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

    Caz looks like it has been fully blown out now.  Buffalo River on the other hand has a major jam in place from Smith Street back to the area behind Tesla.  Two additional jams are lurking just upstream into Kaiser Town area.  Could be some flooding problems down in the First Ward tonight if these start shifting. 

    22D6E21D-1587-440E-9FF5-6F45B877E13E.jpeg

    Had a birdseye view from my truck today while in the 90. That area of the Buffalo River was jammed with ice throughout and the water level was no more than 2-3 feet from the bottom of the Harlem Rd bridge. 

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