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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Are you thinking a WSW for tomorrow through Monday? Will end up being a WWA but this is looking impressive at this point
  2. Thinksnow18
    I see this morning the NWS text states several inches tomorrow afternoon from lake enhancement Chautauqua to Buffalo Metro? We’re driving back from Florida and will be in that area around that late afternoon timeframe.
  3. Thinksnow18
    So it’s becoming increasingly likely that the whole area sees a 1-3” snowfall Sunday afternoon through Sunday night…some nuisance LES Monday then a bit of a warmup…but that storm on the Euro and even somewhat the 18Z GFS fir next weekend really has my attention. An Aleutian ridge looks to develop which would help buckle the PV and throw colder air into the East. If the southern stream gets active and we get Greenland to cooperate we MIGHT just have our first legit system to track.
  4. Thinksnow18
    So is the euro operational
  5. Thinksnow18
    We might be seeing the first area wide snow advisories for the entire CWA
  6. Thinksnow18
    Euro brings in widespread snows on Sunday night Monday and at the end of the run.
  7. Thinksnow18
    Tug!!! It appears on radar you might be getting done snow?
  8. Thinksnow18
    Not certain why that solution could even be possible? There’s cold air to the west and north…since when does a northerly glow wrap in mild air? Answer? Never. Toss
  9. Thinksnow18
    It just seems that we’re doomed to accept this new normal…the models over doing it showing big cold outbreaks and snowstorms to cool downs and cutters. Just trying to absorb it all.
  10. Thinksnow18
    Local Mets keep insisting that next Monday night and Tuesday we’re getting a significant storm…models disagree…are the ensembles showing a different outcome?
  11. Thinksnow18
    You think the Lowville area seems on the low side, you should see the doughnut hole around TugHill Matt’s area…
  12. Thinksnow18
    Quite a few hits on the ensembles for WNY…exactly where we DONT want to be…
  13. Thinksnow18
    Take that look 2/3rds of Dec-Feb and that’s a winter we can all get with
  14. Thinksnow18
    Problem is now it’s NOT on the Euro
  15. Thinksnow18
    Has anyone noticed the west end of Lake Erie on radar? Those are some VERY healthy looking plumes aimed right at the metro/northtowns once the synoptic is done. The other lakes have really fired up with the passing of this S/W and thus could be interesting for a bit…
  16. Thinksnow18
    It’s not quite as covered in Williamsville, sticking to most surfaces. NWS calling for 1-2” for Niagara Frontier tonight and if we’re being honest I see the higher end of that towards 2”. If you told me Thursday that we’d be closing in on potentially 4” over the weekend I wouldn’t believe it. IF the models are on to the cold in 10 days, we might be having a November like days of old.
  17. Thinksnow18
    Good call. 12z continues the trend. Real deep cold by end of run. Would be 20’s for highs
  18. Thinksnow18
    Snow ending in Williamsville. Hard to judge and with melting I’m guessing about 1 1/2”. Not bad at all
  19. Thinksnow18
    Really liking the next 10 days…feeling somewhat optimistic something will pop. GFS and Euro are surprisingly on the same page this far in advance
  20. Thinksnow18
    Who had the first 1”?
  21. Thinksnow18
    Don’t see much movement in the band…could be a 2-3” accumulation In the heart of the band
  22. Thinksnow18
    Officially all snow in Lancaster! Beginning to stick to car roof tops!!!
  23. Thinksnow18
    Verification score: 100%. Mix of rain and snow in Williamsville and now Lancaster.
  24. Thinksnow18
    So the 6z has the same storm, but the heaviest axis of snow is a bit further west…this is perfect…until the 12z comes out and it becomes a cutter…oh and current obs is rain and 37…
  25. Thinksnow18
    The euro? Over the meso models?
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