Waiting on snow

I just shit in the litter box and named it winter 18/19!

28 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Good news snow lovers!  Some of my S.C. friends told me that WYFF said yesterday that the cold weather is over for this winter and an early spring is coming. 

I'm sure that's a false statement. I'm sure winter weather is over. But we all know the NAO will flip negative mid March through April. It won't be cold enough for snow but 40 degree rain it'll be. Spring won't spring until May!

4 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks like tonight will be my last night below freezing through at least the next two weeks. Guess we're headed for yet another top 5 all time warm Feb?

Wouldn't surprise me one bit. Times have really changed. Decembers torch, with the exception of this year and Fab Feb is a lost cause anymore. Leaves us Jan only for winter anymore.

It's time to face it. It's just not our year. Not that many are, but this one is exceptionally bad. Some years refuse to produce in certain areas regardless of how good thing initially look. I'm still in awe of how this turned out after an early start and so much promise. Sooner or later you'd think the se would have good winter again one day, but sometimes I wonder.

32 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

18z gfs ops run never brings cold back but hey it's only one run

Stop drinking the kool-aid man. Winters over down here. I'm sure the Mid Atlantic will score but us? Not convinced.

17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

First half of Feb, through the 15th, looks abysmal on op runs and ensembles! Hard to want to talk about the same thing we have been since Dec 10th! This is looking like Jan/Feb 2012 redux, minus a few nuisance freezing rain events in foothills 

Just sad. May as well be 70 from here out. We'll end up with the same result anyway. Snowless!

Just now, RT1980 said:

So you’re saying that living in the SE sucks as far as snow/winter weather goes?  I would have never guessed!

So what are you saying? We shouldn't want to have 2 to 3 legitimate threats to track? Even in the SE that isn't a lot to ask. I'm amazed how active the STJ has been and how we really haven't torched but outside of 1 storm absolutely nothing. No, that's not normal even for the SE.

What a dead ass place in here. Sad for the heart of winter. Yes I know we had the December snow and it hasn't been a torch really. But man if this winter isn't a dud for storms. Absolutely sad that outside of Decemeber we've had no threats. Some of the warmest driest winters are more entertaining than this crap fest.

4 hours ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

I understand where most on here are coming from in regards to wanting to see snow. Granted we are in the south but, snow can still happen in many areas and it used to happen with more frequency then it does now. This is I am sure is where most of the frustration (cliff divers...LOL..) comes from on the board... I am a native new yorker that moved to SC in 1977 when I was real young, mom and dad wanted to get away from the snow and cold. Well our first winter here in Upstate SC we had several decent snows and mom and dad where like geez.... we came here to get away from this... And every year for about 20 or so years you could pretty much count on several snows in this area of the foothills (North of I-85) up until the mid and late 90"s that is when things started changing.  

Now granted during this time frame there was a year or two we had less but, for the most part we had several events each year. Most were small snow events but, there were several times back then we got 6+ inch storms. Many on here I am sure remember 1988 we had 16 inches of snow with over 3.5 foot snow drifts with temps in the low to mid teens while snowing...snow stayed on the ground for 30 days that entire month of January until the first week of February... And, who can forget the blizzard of 93 and, there have been others.... We used to have low pressure systems come out of the gulf of mexico on a fairly regular basis back then and many on here have said the same thing. True Miller A systems are happening with much less frequency now and like many have said it is like trying to find and catch a unicorn with one of these rare storms. It was much colder back then as well as it hit -5 here in both 1983 & 1985.

Also, within the last 20 years the average high in January for this area has went from 49 degrees to now which is 52 degrees during the coldest part of the winter. This is a 3 degree difference in not a very long period of time which is a pretty large jump so, something is happening. Not sure what but, something has changed....I have heard many in the media saying it's global warming and then I hear others saying no such thing as global warming it is just a weather cycle which is a period of 20 or 30 years we are going through. Either way I think many on the board remember these times from 20-30 years ago and wish things were like that again.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Most know this isn't a snowy place. But its not too much to ask to be above normal on snowfall for once. Instead of endless above normal temps and half of an already minuscule snowfall mean.

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

10 day threat looks like a pretty solid pattern for scoring, imo.  FV GFS has been fairly consistent with it over the last few days.  

The regular GFS just picked it up too. 

1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

He might of been knocked down for a few days early next week, but hell be the one knocking em out when all is said and done. We are only 8 -16 days away before  Macks historic obs start rolling in throughout mid March.

The only thing Mack will be rolling out is a spreader with pre emergent. Lol

4 hours ago, Rankin5150 said:

For those feeling the angst of a SH!TTY winter so far, just remember that the Winter of 1960 in North Carolina went SNOWLESS until Mid Feb of that year. The record for TOTAL Snowfall in a season was broken in Charlotte, NC. It snowed on February the 14th and then another lull until March 2nd, where the snowgates opened up and it snowed back to back to back. They ended up with 27" overall, which is way higher than the average 4-6 b/s we see. Just giving some food for thought that winter is not always over until April, etc. 

True but it ain't the 60's and 70's anymore either.

22 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

New Euro Week 3

Michael Ventrice (‪@MJVentrice‬)

1/28/19, 17:44

 

Verification pic.twitter.com/RXduMxnd1V

 

 

Now its finally got a clue. You can take that to the bank.

Or maybe it follows its trend of being dead wrong like it has all winter. If that's the case we're in business. Its crap too and why anyone puts faith in it baffles me.

JB's bed

15 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Honestly, with the semi-permenant southeast ridge and  totally absent wintertime -NAO over the past decade, it seems to be becoming the norm. Frustrating as heck, but unless and we can get some larger patterns to realign in our favor this will continue. I'm afraid this is the new normal. With the mountains already making it difficult, much of SC may see less snow than Mobile and FL panhandle going forward. If CAE can't sneak something out in Feb, they'll be looking at a six year drought by the time next winter rolls around. Even GSP has seen only two accumulating snows in Feb and March COMBINED since 2015, and they were .4 and .5 inches.

Snow in SC is quickly becoming a thing of the past.

Each day I'm more amazed how we ****ed this winter up. Neutral to weak Nino, low solar, record NA snowcover in Dec. Yet we still screwed it up. If we couldn't make this year work you have to wonder if we can make any work again.

43 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

 

 

I mean technically we should be receiving double if not, triple of what Atlanta sees. So it’s odd. But I can’t argue with you, because I’m beginning to think you’re right. A lot of you got a good snow in December. I got maybe a dusting and a little bit of ice.


.

 

 

The failure of the Nino to develop and the tropical forcing (MJO) mostly focused in the warm phases doomed the forecasts. 

Had that not been the case would it have been different? Maybe, maybe not. I'm convinced the NAO is the problem here and I'll argue anyone who wants to argue that. And I'm not sure if the Nino and MJO had cooperated that it would have made a difference.

History doesn't lie. Late 70's, 95-96, 02-03, 09-10 all big blocking winters and all colder and snowier than average. Sure, it snows without it, and can snow big. It may not cause bigger storms necessarily but it keeps cold highs in place, slows storm track and keeps storms south somewhat. Give me that anyday and I'd roll the dice over this fast, progressive, timing systems up with the high pressure over the ne rocketing out to sea pattern of late. 

5 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I’m just saying it can still happen. 

Remember February 12/13  2014 storm?

I had giving up on getting anything before that storm. We would up with 14. Frosty who is in Surry County as well got 21in.

I hope everyone in then SE gets snowed in before winter is done.

I do too. But most years after Feb 15th it's over down here. And it's clear we'll get to Feb 15th snowless. So I'm sorry if I offend anyone wanting 70 degree weather. I'm thankful for my early December snow but I accept that I'm getting nothing else and I'm ready to put winter behind me.

1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Wehas a mild February last year and a cold March. 3 tines iit snowed in March last winter. Last one was over 4 in.  The first 2 were just a dusting. Oh and the last one was on the 24th of March. 

Most of us don't live in the northern foothills. Just sayin..

2 minutes ago, BillT said:

fun times underway, the actual storm is in view and can be watched as it moves towards the SE..........

Speak for yourself. I don't enjoy watching rain headed my way.

1 minute ago, ryan1234 said:

I’m surprised there aren’t more Carolina peeps on this page. It’s not that often that it snows that far south in Mississippi, only to leave us high and dry.


.

It is this day and age. Always happens every year now. This is the hardest place in the se to snow.

1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I still believe we will get cold and snow in  February. That’s usually our best month for snow anyway. 

Lol somebody in the Carolina's will hit 80 in Feb. Mark it down its happening. 

If you are a weather forecaster in the se and want to be accurate, all you have to do is forecast above average temps and below average snow and you'll be right 9 out of 10 years. And you'd look like a genius without ever even doing any research at all because no matter how much appears to be in our favor the se will always find a way to be warm these days.

26 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

He said there would be a warm up back in December and then mid to late January winter would come 

You'll be highly disappointed relying on him.

26 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I wasn’t saying younor I can do anytthing about the weather. My point was don’t give up when we’re in the best part of winter. 

Check out Joe Bastsrdo Saturday Summary today.  His forecast is very encouraging. 

 

JB? You're kidding I hope. He knows how to spin it to sound good. There is no damn way he even believes anything he says. He just has to go down with the fail boat. Not a snowball's chance in Columbia SC his negative 3-5 departure even comes close.

9 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Good thing for Patriots they  didn’t do like you when they were playing Atlanta in the Super bowl. Give up in the 3rd quarter. Everyone thought Atlanta had won. 

 

He is right you know? Not that we can't get a transient chance like next weekend.  But I'd say the hope if a sustained period of good opportunity and tracking is long gone. And why would anyone believe any model with a huge block anymore? Its shown that all winter and never comes. Why is this different?  Hell it's been teasing a block for years. Theres something seriously hampering the NAO in winter months and faking out the models. Obviously something we don't know since the programming of the models always miss it.