Waiting on snow

18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

How many ensemble members of the GFS have snow?

Not enough. This is a non event at the moment.

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fairly big shift on the GEFS building the EPO ridge by d10. Would imply the potential "flip" may happen sooner rather than later. 

Looks good up top sure. But how the hell do we get rid of that awful -PNA? I mean with that look how is the cold air dumping into the west?

1 hour ago, IWC said:

LOL    This from the king of negativity on the Board!

He didn't say memorable in what way. The last couple have been memorable in a bad way.

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

GEFS says no snow south of Virgina fyi... Toss it with the OP

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

Why toss it? I mean it matches 99% of modeling.

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

So -NAO/-AO=Torch now.... Wonder why everyone has been clamoring for this over the past decade+ without one during the winter months? 

Funny how that works huh? Just goes to show we can screw up any pattern down here. It's amazing it actually finds a way to snow here.

7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

In the ensembles we trust

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

??? 20 members and all average less than an inch. Lol not a signal at all unless you're in Buffalo or Detroit.

Time to get this b***h jumping again since the fantasy storms are showing up!

11 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

I dont see how it cannot cool down.  Shorter days quickly limiting heating, sun angle getting lower to reduce efficiency of heating, and there's going to be 4 feet of snow on the ground along the Canadian border! 

Look at the bright side, if this keeps up we may be on the firing line for some epic winter storm tracks!

Epic winter storm tracks that still manage to produce rain?

3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Good.  We'll expect the rainy pattern from last week to repeat over and over this summer!

Doesn't work that way! Only patterns we don't want repeat around here!

7 hours ago, Solak said:

It's gonna be May all over again!

Lows in the 69-73 range,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s NW, and generally 90-93
elsewhere.

Even hotter weather with a bit lesser chances of PM thunderstorms
may develop next weekend, if the upper ridge gets stronger over
portions of the SE states, as some of the latest models suggest.

Strengthening ridge over the SE? No way who would have thought that? Models are guaranteed to nail that at long range.

7 hours ago, scwxfan said:

Bingo....  This is absolutely the worst area for a weather enthusiast. I wouldn't wish this place on my worst enemy. I'm surprised you do so bad with snow considering your location. Most areas north of 85 do pretty good with snow. Looks to be another rain free day today, and our string of dry days continue. I'm quite frankly skeptical about these models showing 5-7 inches of rain in my area. 

I lived in Lexington for a bit and still suffer PTSD from the weather, or should I say lack of interesting weather down there. Lol you're right, that is not the place for a weather enthusiast. 

23 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Hard to believe the heat we are looking at for May this weekend! GSP has not hit 90 yet but will do so easily on Friday if not before. GSP has not been higher than 96 since July 25th 2016, but could well surpass that ere the month is out! Not looking forward to this AT ALL! 

I remember one year back in the mid 90s when a May heat wave reached the mid 90s and ended up being the hottest weather all summer. Would be nice if that happened again here, but something tells me this is gonna be another 2016, 2012, 1993 type of summer. 

Yeah something tells me 2019 will even blow those years away. Maybe I should learn to love heat, if that's even possible.

Now, just like winter, I guess we wait until the pattern change that we'll be teased with but never come.

5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Looks like a map from last winter!

Atleast the heat part!

Looks like 99% of the temp maps for the se.

4 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Boy, REALLY hope TWC is overdoing this heat for late next week, mid 90s gonna be torture!

Already starting off with a bang! Ridge breeds drought and drought strengthens ridge! I think we already know how this ends. Record shattering heat this summer will be the headlines.

38 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hope he’s wrong about the heat , like he was about the cold all winter! 

Take it to the bank! Models can nail a heatwave weeks in advance. It'll verify 100%.

On 3/2/2019 at 9:14 AM, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah the cold has been centered too far West all season. The Midwest to West coast has had an awesome winter, but the cold has not made it East of the Great Lakes and south of the Mason Dixon. Our little SE corner was completely left out of the cold and fun this year and I am hating it!. The potential was there and the cold has been there, but we could never get the jet stream to push farther East and the same areas have gotten the fun over and over, with more to come next week. Just saw that LA failed to reach 70 in Feb for the first time in 132 years! It is becoming more and more clear that if those of us outside the mountains and south of I-40 want to experience any more than a random inch or two of slush we'll have to move. The 60s, 70s, and 80s winters, like the ones that brought GSP double digit totals 11 out of 24 years from 59/60 to 82/83, then two more in 86/87 and 87/88, and even the March 93 and 95/96 winters are long, long gone; and I'm not sure we'll ever see anything like those again. 

CAE doesn't have a monthly snowfall totals chart on their site like GSP does but by next winter their measurable snow drought will be nearly 6 years. I know CAE has never been a ski area but six years without measurable snowfall has to be a record there I would think. 

 

I would have though the same about CAE. Not the case though. After they received 16 inches in Feb 73 they didn't get anymore until they received 5.5 inches 6 years later in Feb 79. Then they got 3.5 Jan 2003 and didn't get anymore until 8.9 in Feb 2010. 7 years later!!! And there are multiple 4 and 5 year streaks back to 1960. Their snowfall pattern is roughly the same. Nobody can argue that the upstate has really fallen off since 93 or so though!

I give another win to the models! They said at day 7 Tuesday night wouldn't be a non event.

They've done a fine job of telling us at day 7 its not gonna snow instead of day 3 this year. And the only storm we got inside 6 days panned out. I'm speaking for our part of the country only. Haven't paid attention to the overall verification of them.

4 hours ago, calculus1 said:

You live in NW SC, man.  Here are the annual (and monthly -- October to May) snowfall totals for the past 15 years or so at GSP:

Your 4.3-inch season total this year is only 0.4 inches less than normal.  It's also more than 16 of the years listed here.  I think it's been a pretty normal year for you as far as totals go.  (I also figure you don't actually live at the airport -- Boiling Springs is more north and east of there -- so your totals will vary a bit, but this is the best I can do.)

We all want more snow, myself included.  (Spring, stay away!)  I think the extra bitterness and despair right now is due to the big storm that was had in December.  Everyone believed that we were setting up for an epic winter with that early storm.  It just hasn't materialized that way, though.

I know! I give the winter a C-. My rant was focused mostly on the people who complain about not getting snow but average 20 inches per year! They don't know how good they have it!

And yes the hype this winter had expectations high. I was hoping for a double digit year. Would be the 1st since 93. And double digit years used to occur every three years or so up until then. That was the good ole days!

47 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Everything plantwise ask flower wise are leafing out and flowering, due to this sorry, snowless, warm winter! How many winters can we have in a row where 2/3 or 3/3 months are above normal?? Anywho, the low 20s will probably verify Tuesday night, just to kill all the emerging vegetation, flowers, and decimate the peach crop! Best.Winter.Ever! 

Good riddance to this shit box winter.  Tired of seeing the Mid Atlantic weenies cry all winter how bad their winters are. They always get snow its just a matter of time. They keep getting storm after storm now while we fail miserably. Beyond done with it

23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

3 waves next week and no snow!?? Pathetic winter for sure!

I cant wait for it to end myself! Ready to put this dumpster fire behind us.

24 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

No discussion of 12Z models?  Telling I guess.

They're strung out a suppressed like they have been for days and that's where I bet it will stay. I'll keep hammering home my point the models have done fantastic inside 7 days with general storm tracks. There are subtle changes but nothing dramatic like years past.

I've seen people on other boards upset with the models that it wont snow as if the models control that. I'll say it again, I think improvements in the models has led to this boring winter. 

It certainly has sucked this winter, but we did get 1 storm. Most years it's only 1-3 anyway. The models haven't given us snow inside of day 6 or so because they're catching on quicker to the fact it's not gonna snow. Which I like better than constant tracking to have the rug snatched out 48 hrs out. 

So as the models get better year after year I'd say our time tracking will drop too. Because let's be honest, in the past 9 out of 10 snows went poof at go time. At least we're not seeing that this year because the modeling seems better inside 7 days.

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro not even close to land, except Bermuda! Very suppressed run! Right where we want it 7 days out!?

Nah the NW trend only applies when it screws us! This one will trend SE. After Dec. it has literally refused to snow here and this wont be any different.

1 hour ago, hickory said:

Time to drain the fuel and clean the carburetor on the generator. Stick a fork in it folks this winter is over. C ya winter 2019-2020.

Yeah my forecast for 19-20 is above average temps and below average snow. Just forecast that and you're right 90% of the time. This is the easiest part of the country to forecast winter.