Waiting on snow

The 18z runs are winning! No snow for me of course verbatim, but at least I don't get any 34 degree rain. I call that winning.

37 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Has the winter been trash? Or has the models been trash?  Nothing but broken dreams. With all of today's technology it's ridiculous how models perform outside of 3 days 99% of the time. You could take a 7 year old kid and he would have just as good of a chance of predicting the weather outside of 5 days...Trash models and trash winter. I live in the middle of the Smoky Mountains at 3000' and have had 2.8 inches of snow so far..Pure trash

I may get bashed for saying this, but the models have been decent inside of 7 days. Not one decent storm threat has made it inside 7 days since Dec. After 7 days they have teased a good pattern with cold and snow but quickly fades at the 7 day mark to snowless and milder. This storm is no different. We haven't had the rug snatched out a 48 hrs yet. The winter has sucked absolutely! But I wonder if the boredom and lack of tracking is because the models have actually improved?

10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro has rain here with the first wave, and out to sea with the second wave. Crazy how different things are just 24 hours later. It's really maddening. 

I don't know why you're surprised. This whole winter has been trash outside the first 2 weeks of Dec. Why would that change now?

Watching what is most likely final threat of the season go down the ****ing toilet! The way this joke of a winter has been nobody should have expected any different.

22 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yep, just saw that too. Video of LA snow, and Vegas tying a 70 year-old record for snow per TWC. Was supposed to be a good year for the east but been good for everyone else instead. Pattern is as bad as it gets for us. Every system tracking from Amarillo to great lakes. 

It is depressing rare snowfalls and and 100 year snow events are happening and we can't get a flurry! I wish our turn would come at setting snow records. All we're good at in the SE is heat records.

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

PSU on MA forum mentions that top analog for coming pattern is March 1960.  Nothing exciting happened around here then did it?

I want to pull my kitty fur out everytime I see March 1960 come up! I mean come on, that was 6 decades ago and a whole different climate! I'll buy every single poster from the Upstate a steak dinner if that even comes close to happening again!

It's safe to say GSP to CLT to RDU will not see another flake this year. And CAE will go 5 years in a row with no measurable snow. Welcome to the new climate where the SE ridge and +NAO dominate. Smdh

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep but can’t blame the pac. That goods great day 8-12 but doesn’t help much because the SE ridge wins.  Something else is driving that right now. 

There are some snow hits day 10-15 in the eps. 2 absolute HECS solutions. Several others decent hits. So there is hope but the look is mediocre. 

It's just a theory and I'm not a pro by any means, but what if the se ridge is a pattern driver more so than a reaction? We look for ridging to develop in AK, Greenland, etc to drive the pattern, but never hear mention of a mid latitude ridge like the se ridge driving things. Possibly its caused by sst's and then it does it's part to screw up the pattern? Regardless, I'm tired of that ****ing ridge ruining winter year after year!

Looking back the writing was on the wall. El Nino struggled to develop and while Nov and early Dec were colder than average and we did get a snow, the Pac quickly showed its hand for the winter in mid Dec. Tropical forcing was all wrong, strong Pac jet and when the EPO tanked the ridge was too far west and allowed a war. I knew in Dec Jan was toast. Remember saying it on here. But I thought we had plenty of time to save Feb and then the Nino faded. That's a couple years lately El Nino has completely failed. I find it amazing in a warming climate and high SST's we cant even get a legit Nino anymore. Cant remember one since 09-10 that wasn't the crap fest super Nino of a couple years ago.

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't know for sure, as I haven't researched it.  When I look at a SST map, though, in general, there are plenty of places with warm anomalies that do not have ridging being continually forced.  My guess is that the SER is a response.  I'm sure there are some feedbacks at work, but generally, it is a response to the placement of negative anomalies elsewhere.  What has been somewhat curious to me has been the frequency of the -EPO pattern in winters of late.  I don't remember hearing all that much about that index before 4-5 years ago.  But we sure have had a lot of -EPOs and an astonishing lack of -NAOs over the last while.  This repeating configuration has certainly favored more central areas of the US than the SE.

I don't have a sense as to how the PNA has acted over the last 5 years or so...I am remembering it being mixed, but it certainly could have been more positive or negative in general than I remember.  What I do remember is not a lot of deep south and southeast snowstorms.  Instead, we get this gradient pattern and front end mix events.  I think that is a product of the EPO and lack of NAO.  We don't get those southern sliders with cold highs to the north anymore.  Everything reforms or cuts, courtesy of no blocking.

But back to the SER, it really hasn't been a stable feature over the last several years.  The thing that stings this year is that nobody saw it coming -- nobody really saw a -PNA/+SER back half of winter.  I guess "backloaded" just don't mean what it used to.  And by the time we're able to break the pattern, it will be beyond the reasonable window for winter weather, most likely.  The GEFS and EPS look horrific as far as the eye can see.  SOI diving, MJO allegedly circling favorably, but nothing but SERs down the line.  We only get two, maybe three months of the year where we can be in winter weather mode, and to waste more than half of it in -PNA purgatory is really disappointing.

Unless something drastically changes, this will go down as the worst winter ever for me.  I'm sure that I've had 1" of snow or less in the past, but the expectations going into this winter are weighted heavily in my mind.  We have had no really wintry days.  By that, I mean one where we had a snow, sleet, or freezing rain event where it was just solidly below freezing all day and you didn't have to worry about the temps.  I mean, we haven't even had a clipper come through forcing random snow showers.  It's just been an awful winter.  Solid F.

Yeah it's time to close the blinds on this dumpster fire. I am shocked how this one ended though. I expect 4 out of 5 to be dumpster fires here but I thought this one would deliver.

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

There are pretty much no indications in any of the modeling over the next 10-15 days that suggests a turn toward colder weather.  By the end of that period, the pattern may begin to change.  But that is still far from certain.  Whatever is driving this train wreck is locked and loaded for a long time.  By the time we turn, it will likely be later in March.  We may still sneak through a well-timed event, but you might as well flip a coin.  All these intermittent colder solutions 6+ days out end up being warmer as you move in.  Without a true pattern change, I a fear the chances of a big winter storm around here are slim to none.  The SE ridge looks to really flex in about 10 days.

I wonder if the SER isn't more of a pattern driver than a result of other teleconnections? I mean we look for ridging to develop over AK, Greenland etc. to drive the pattern. I wonder if ridging in the mid latitudes plays a significant role also? If sea surface temps are the reason for that ****ing ridge year after year I fear we are in a downward spiral toward a permanent SER because we cant stay cold enough long enough to bring sea surface temps around the SE down.

43 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

It looks like this round of runs is not showing any potential. Super quiet in here. Wish we had something to track yall. SMH...

Always next year. This one is toast as far as I'm concerned. Even if we pull off a March miracle I'll take it but March snow isn't my thing. Snow between 65-70 degree days melting in a few hours isn't my thing really.

I can't wait for somebody to bring up March 1960! As if we have a shot at that 59 years later in this litter box climate!!

4 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

The MJO is forecast to get into the cold phases, but the models seem to keep a SE ridge.  Either they are wrong, or the MJO has become irrelevant.

I'm sure it will be irrelevant in the cold phases. That's the way this winter has been. After the first half of December the pattern has been horrendous and I wouldn't expect that to change at this point.

1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Is anyone seeing any real chances for anymore winter?  All I see are some small brief cold snaps and a reloading transient pattern that primarily lets the SER dominate.

Unfortunately winter weather is most likely done. I don't think we know how the very end of Feb and the 1st 2 weeks of March will go yet, but if I was a betting man I would bet money it's over. 

16 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

Pretty sad....Seattle and other coastal communities in the NW are forecast to get 4 to 8 inches + of snow this weekend...The mountains in california got over 120 inches of snow in a matter of 3 days this week...that is over 10 feet plus of snow in 72 hours and we cannot even get the whiff of a renegade snow flake or sleet pellet??? This is worse then pretty sad it is pretty freakin pathetic!!!!!!!!!!!

Until we can get a -NAO in winter expect more of the same. -EPO only works if its centered more east like 2014. This year it's too far west. We really need the NAO in the SE more than any other region. 

1 hour ago, ryan1234 said:

Calling off winter 7 days into February is a bit ridiculous and premature. No,the pattern doesn’t bode well in the next week or so. But given how poorly models have handled winter thus far, I’m not giving them much credibility. We’ve had snow well into February and March. So, quit whining about something that could very well change within a few weeks.


.

Even if we luck out and get a late season miracle, it won't change the fact of how temps are going up and up every year and our window of opportunity gets shorter and shorter every year. I'd say we spend at least a month of met winter with spring temps every year. Maybe not a month consecutive of spring temps but overall the warmth overwhelms the cold.

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Don’t get me wrong, I love me some OFA.  We would have done well to heed their temp forecast around these parts.

A -NAO and a SE ridge! I mean who would have thought we could pull that off? We just keep inventing was to fail!

2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Yep, it was rolling our way there for a little while, and then it started hauling a$$ over to Siberia.  Definitely going to go down as the worst winter ever in my book, unless we get one of those Marches of yore to show up.  Most certainly, the expectations for this winter make it all the worse.

This whole decade has sucked. I've never doubted global warming but was skeptical of rate of warming predicted. Not so much now as something is definitely off this decade. The whole decade is warm but since 2015 it has accelerated faster than I ever thought. I figured I'd never live to see the day where snow is a thing of the past. Now I'm not so sure. 

Charlotte only dropped to 64 last night! Highest minimum ever for Feb. And to do it the first week of Feb! Good times folks. The winter that keeps on giving. 2019 already following the footsteps of the last few years. Smdh

Its becoming clear as bleak as the LR looks that it's over for us barring a late season miracle. And I'm ok with that. After this week I'll have spring fever. However something is going on with Feb lately. I would say early spring but March and April are colder than Feb lately. So I guess it could be a bad run of luck. But this image from Brad P puts into perspective how Feb isn't exactly Fab Feb anymore. Around half of the record highs for Feb have occurred this decade. Now this year  is looking equally shitty.

7 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

What happened to the NAO?

What do you think happened to it? It is the ultimate unicorn anymore and makes me wonder if it's even possible to go negative for an extended period in winter. Lol

I'd give this winter a C- so far if it ends like this and not another flake falls. Not making light of how awful this year has been. It's just hard to give any lower than a C when you actually reached average snowfall. But jeez has this winter sucked for threats. No tracking at all outside December and no real cold air. I haven't been below 21 the whole winter imby. Not sure about the airports at GSP and CLT but that never happened even when I lived in CAE for 5 years. To call this winter a suck fest is being generous.

38 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Did the euro or eps give us any love?

It doesn't look bad. Not sure that a conus wide trough with a war would do us any good in the immediate SE for snow though. Looks more of the same to me. But who knows?

18 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

I agree with this mostly, with the caveat that I’d argue that you actually have better than coin flip odds if you go with persistence and go warm.  For whatever reason, warm wins now.  Something is going on that essentially renders analogs of yesteryear useless.

Very said times in the winter anymore for the SE. Could be cyclical. All +NAO lately, warm AMO so it could flip. But the longer we go with warmer being the normal I fear I'm wrong and this is the way we're heading.