Hotair

Satellite presentation now looks much better organized.  Idalia could easily set records for RI given the hot waters in its path 

FL CFO reminds of the fire danger of leaving EVs at risk to storm surge.  I just got back from my Clearwater beach condo and counted 7 teslas in the lower parking garage.  I certainly hope they are moved by tomorrow.  I almost wish they would all get towed if they haven’t been moved by 5 pm tomorrow 

Nice simulation of Gulfport FL flooding due to expected storm surge from Idalia

https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1696249278191083764?s=20

A glance at SST in the GoM shows nice 32+° water on the way to LF 

Is it just me or has the northward motion stalled a bit in the last hour or so?

9 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

I don’t know, seems like the Tampa bubble is in full effect her and this is gonna end up staying north and west


.

Probably great for wind claims.  Not so much for storm surge   I don’t recall the last time we had 7 foot surge into the bay 

Evac orders at this time 

Euro ensembles from @HurricanesJames show tight overlap. 

TV reminding folks how far Ian track was from actual LF 72 hours out. I do believe the steering patterns are a little better behaved this time given the multi model consensus, but no one inside the cone should let their guard down  

NOAA3 

Satellite is suggestive of Idalia forming an eye .  

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my first stab at it.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/newly-formed-idalia-likely-to-strike.html?m=1

Uni of Florida should be preparing for a possible direct hit given this scenario

Storm surge would be disastrous for parts of St Pete and along the Tampa Bay region even if LF ends up being well North of us.   
 

11 ft in the bend would literally bury many communities in water along the armpit

Buoy near Idalia showing rapid pressure drop.  Storm could be intensifying rapidly

34 minutes ago, Normandy said:

It’s not often you get something this well organized with this much time over jet fuel. impressive outflow in all quadrants.  It’s a beast of a cyclone in the making.  Still like near tampa for landfall but I’m seeing the east shifts that usually occur with these setups.  That’s being said there is enough rushing to the east to keep this north of fort myers I think. 

I’m very concerned over a potential Tampa LF. This storm is not on many folks radar and given it’s already late Sunday and folks go to school and work tomorrow means there’s less free time for any proper preparation 

What the heck are fractional predictions ? 

The cone on this one seems rather unusual to me.  Do we get many storms in the gulf that transit North to South ? 

stats for a named storm in June. 

16/6/3

000
WTNT62 KNHC 091653
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1155 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT ABACO ISLAND...

Weather radar data from the Bahamas and surface observations 
indicate that the center of Nicole has made landfall on Great Abaco 
Island in the northwestern Bahamas with an estimated intensity of 
70 mph (110 km/h).  A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just 
east of Great Abaco Island, reported a minimum pressure of 986.8 mb 
(29.14 inches) as the center passed near it.  Data from an Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the estimated 
minimum pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). 

SUMMARY OF 1155 AM EST...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF MARSH HARBOR GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

Many friends and family in Ft lauderdale and North to West Palm Beach.  Not a Single one is taking this storm seriously. Like zero. I hope it’s because they have extra supplies from Ian but I y family there boarded up for Ian and they are not planning to board up for this.

 Keeping it at TS intensity < 48 to landfall has a lot to do with the thinking that it won’t get dangerous in time 

I had a good run. 2022 sure gave the models a run for their money.

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I closed the shades on tropical weeks ago, but definitely impressive to have two Atlantic canes and a strong signal for subtropical development off the SE coast in November. 

Same here.  Bummer.  I had already spent my prize money for winning the forecast contest