Hotair

11/4/2

I am reading in the News today that DOGE has entered NOAA headquarters and will be looking to downsize it. Any ideas on what this could mean?  I was understanding that NOAA was making do with limited budgets that had not kept up with inflation.  
 

restricting NOAAs ability to report on climate change and do advanced modeling and reporting of storm threats would be disastrous in my opinion.  

That euro is not great news for the FL southwest coast.  we have only ever had 3 canes come into Florida in November this would be the 4th in history. 

26 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

You would never know if experiments like this were going on now anyway.  I'm not saying the government is purposely trying to send storms and injure people, that's crazy.  However, it is equally as crazy to think these types of programs are not going on regularly and sometimes go awry, like the hurricane seeding did.  Ask yourself how many things labeled conspiracy theories since 2020/Covid have actually been proven to have a high likelihood of being true or outright true?

Agree but if it’s a congressional representative or ex president suggesting this and who apparently pretends to have access to this info, then it is incumbent on them to show their evidence or else stfu.  

US Mets face death threats after hurricane Milton, Helene misinformation 

people are nuts and to think we share this world with them. 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/meteorologists-death-threats-hurricane-conspiracies-misinformation

2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

TECO reporting 75k out now….Tampa east to almost Lakeland…..it will climb

I’m certain it will. Just thankful it’s not an issue for most in Tampa Bay as had been widely feared.  The concern over extreme record winds and record surge in TB just did not materialize. 

Electric power holding up along most of the Tampa Bay Area for now.  Surge not an issue for now.  Extreme rain will result in localized fresh water flooding in the usual areas.  

I hope so.  Given all possible outcomes just three days ago this seem like a win   Tornado events are still in play so we must stay vigilant 

Just now, lee59 said:

Looks like the eye is coming ashore at Sarasota.

Tampa dodged a major bullet if that track confirms.

Helene flooded homes but left the structures mostly intact in many coastal areas.   After what I saw today on the roads in St Pete  ( and despite our  Governor celebrating a few hundred dump trips.) there is so much debris still piled everywhere that even a cat 2 wind will send deadly and destructive items flying everywhere.  If this storm stays on steroids, there won’t be an uncovered window left intact after the storm

I can’t remember any storms going sub 910 mb twice in their evolution 

4 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

18Z GFS shifted slightly north, bringing a Tampa Bay mouth landfall back in to the picture.

 

With each passing hour that landfall window becomes more and more locked in. 

I don’t believe I have ever anticipated a recon mission’s results with both more excitement and fear.  And we are talking many hundreds of past Atlantic canes here.  This is peak americanwx.com for me right here 

Is Milton the strongest GOM cane ever recorded ?  
tied for third strongest Atlantic cane  

6 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Pinellas County issued a mandatory evacuation for long-term, healthcare facilities, and assisted living facilities in Zone A.

https://thegabber.com/zone-a-evacuation-begins-milton-update-5/

The Assisted Living facility where my Dad lives in Zone B is evacuating tomorrow "to be safe."

 

 

looks like A,B and C are all being evacuated before the storm’s arrival 
1:45 p.m. Pinellas orders evacuations for health care facilities

Pinellas County issued a mandatory evacuation order for long-term care health facilities, assisted living facilities and hospitals in evacuation zones, A, B and C. The evacuation includes six hospitals, 25 nursing homes and 44 assisted living facilities totaling approximately 6,600 patients.

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2024/10/06/tropical-storm-milton-live-updates-tampa-bay-hillsborough-pinellas-pasco/

Making a bad situation much worse, officials in Tampa Bay Area  are now conceding that cleanup of Helene debris by the time this storm approaches the area is an impossible task.  
 

With Milton bearing down, about 5% of the debris from Hurricane Helene had been cleared from Clearwater Beach, Clearwater Mayor Bruce Rector said at a news conference Sunday.

“My phone has been ringing off the hook the last two days with residents concerned about the debris,” Rector said.

The mayor said he was coordinating with officials from the local level to the White House.

But clearing off the entire island before a midweek landfall will likely be impossible, Rector said.

“We’re in a desperate situation to move as much as we can as quickly as we can,” he said.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 061748
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 
latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.0 West. Milton is moving toward 
the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected 
today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on 
Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and 
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north 
of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and 
approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during
the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from 
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 
miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding,
along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major
flooding possible.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and
possible in the watch area on Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Minor coastal flooding could also occur along 
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from large swells. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Michael Watkins on X states “recon plan (issued yesterday) has a synoptic surveillance mission scheduled to start soon - it will sample the steering environment to the north - these data will be included in the 0Z global models - which start coming out around midnight. Lots of flights on the docket”
 

Both ICON and GFS 12z runs are terrible news for TB as they shift the storm track back toward worst case scenario.  Icon makes LF around Bradenton and GFS around Crystal River 

Recently Milton has moved very little. Nearly stationary. I am hoping this stalling will enable dry air to form along its path to land and take the edge off the RI that will certainly occur in the next 24 hours as it crosses the bath waters and low shear environment currently in its path 

10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

What do they use to establish such a detailed track for storms that old?

The telegraph and anenometers used by ships and weather stations communicated the paths of the storms. These have been preserved and captured visually.  

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't forsee Milton being very impactful over FL. Should be considerably weaker than Helene and much smaller

Also looks to track south of TB, which is great news. Florida will handle this with ease. 

I can’t disagree more with this. But I want to explain why in a respectful way that doesn’t fall into the banter arena as we are in storm mode.  Hence, allow me to borrow from Jack Beven’s expert analysis: 

The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a 
small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very 
rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable 
environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and 
dry air entrainment after that time.  Third, the proximity of a 
frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests 
the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at 
some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance 
continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak 
intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to 
category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts 
Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while 
other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly.  The new 
intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows 
Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is 
below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the 
storm gets stronger.  Milton is expected to weaken and start 
extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition 
completed by 120 h.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.

According to this, Milton’s trajectory is so unusual that one has to go all the way back to 1888 to find a similar storm track