Hotair

7 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Scoring table updated to 16 6 3 count, Ophelia approaches coast as borderline TS or hurricane given that hurricane warnings are in place. So count could be 16 7 3 at any point. Then also, potential TD17 and Philippe could develop next week and run the count to 17 7 3 (or 17 8 3 if Ophelia also briefly a hurricane. Score for hotair now at 100.0 but future activity could reduce that and provide a new leader by next week. 

Let’s call it a season here. 

952 mb dropsonde   Lee continues to strengthen 

only 3 GfS members now have Lee as a harmless fish storm 

The rest bring it to NS or ME or even south NE 

VHTs are often associated with RI episodes.  It’s possible Lee might regain some Mojo soon. 
 

From @KeviShader on Twitter:

As an incredible coincidence, we got both a VDM and a GPM MW pass for #Lee's core within 3min of each other, with both data sources supporting a (28nm per recon) eye that is, for now, open to the south => persistent SW shear + dry air intrusions but VHTs have increased markedly.

The Atlantic cane pinball machine is quite active right now 
 

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think much has changed IMO. Long shot for NE (~5% SNE/15% Cape & ENE) with significantly greater risk for Atlantic Canada (40%) and OTS (40%) squarely on the table. 

I know people want answers now or to put their flag in the ground, but the truth is it’s going to take more time to have true forecast clarity of all the critical elements determining the long term track. Can’t latch onto any one op run or even an individual model suite yet. 

True.  One thing to note though is that euro has been among the most accurate trajectory models for Lee to date.  Will be interesting to see if 00z repeats with this westward bias. 

1938 New England Cane

Euro imagines a direct hit to New England from a high end category 2/ cat 3 Lee next Sunday

question is what is Euro seeing now that wasn’t evident 12 hours ago and that other models are dismissing ? 

IR presentation almost suggests a WSW heading now, but it’s difficult to say for sure since the inner core has completely disintegrated (dry air and sheer forces) 

yesterday we saw RI and now it’s like we’re witnessing Rapid Weakening 

21 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Was already explained to you earlier in the thread. Global models lack the resolution (and it's worse the less sophisticated they are, like the GEM)  to deal with the pressure differentials across small distances from a tropical cyclone.  Would break the model with a true pressure init. 

Ok it was not clear from previous response that it would actually break the model if they used real values.  It just seemed like a capricious choice 

Initialized Lee at 991 mb Where  do they get these #s ?  

https://twitter.com/jpatrickwx/status/1700162335355097241?s=20
 

Anyone else notice a WSW wobble in the satellite presentation ? If the grid overlays are accurate Lee is trending toward the South side of the official track cone at this hour. Not of great significance yet but the models should reflect this on the next runs 

Can someone here care to explain the rationale for the models initializing using much higher pressures than what recon measured ? 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Model track accuracy for Lee 

1 minute ago, Joe4alb said:

Eye is shrinking rapidly, another sign of intensification..

Or ERC?

Cat 5 winds in NE as well

Worth mentioning that none of the models had Lee as a Cat 5 at this hour.  

also, even if NHC waits until the 11 pm advisory to call it a Cat 5 it will still be a record for rapidLee intensifying to a 5 in the Atlantic 

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I believe these winds are from the SW eyewall, assuming the NE eyewall is stronger, I think the case can be made this is already a Cat 5. Should know soon. 

First pass. Correct. This is CAT 5 material   We should know more in about 10 minutes as it punches into the NE quadrant 

That temperature is nuts 

Some of the top AI machine learning models are looking for New England impacts from Lee.

New England has never seen even a Cat 4 storm come onshore.  Most powerful one was a Cat 3 in 1938 (New England hurricane ) which caused significant damage throughout Long Island.   Needless to say, all the stick built homes and above ground utilities would be utterly destroyed if a powerful cane like Lee were to come onshore as a Cat 4 anywhere along the New England coast.  

HAFS Model projects sustained 190-200MPH winds with gusting well over 210 MPH by Friday. This will be pushing record territory for Atlantic Canes and will certainly have the attention of every actuary working in the insurance industry. 
 

SAR shows 95 knot sustained winds in NE quadrant. Safe to say we have a Cat2 for now