dbullsfan

Maybe it’s a wobble but seems to be back in more of a NW direction as well, moving further from the coast. May only be an hour or two difference but the further west it goes the more time over water if/when it turns to the east. .

I’m curious if at the 2 AM advisory it is more NNW, seems like most models have had it starting the turn north about now and it still appears to be headed NW. .

I definitely think Georgia and into the Carolina is much more of a threat than Florida with this one. I could be wrong but I don’t see it organizing in time to become more than a lower end cat 1 and maybe it slows down for some heavy rain fall amounts in the big bend and northern Florida areas but for most of the state I don’t see totals getting over 1-2 inches outside of remote areas hit directly by some serious bands. .

I guess we just missed it over here, yesterday afternoon had some doozies though, quite a few tree branches down in the backyard and neighborhood with heavy rain. Sometimes unless it’s a direct hit it can be hard to tell the difference in just a heavier than normal afternoon storm and a tropical system (at least of the TS nature, obviously major hurricanes are different) .

A band or just summer Florida storms? Seems a little far away to be considered a band of the storm? I’d expect if anything the Tampa/St Pete gets a little rain from this tomorrow but all signs seem to point to this being well off shore when it passes that part of Florida. Unless of course when it starts to really structure up the storms really push out the eastern side. .

The track record of the NHC having the Tampa Bay Area in the center of an early season cone is like clockwork and is batting like 0.000001% in the last 100 years, not saying this won’t be the one but if I were a betting man I’d be looking to the north or south ends of the cone. .

Looks like the annual “Tampa Hurricane” is gonna be early this year. .

Not to mention, I’m no Mod but usually people aren’t really in the business of rooting for places to get hit with a Hurricane. We are all here because we are enamored with these beauties but don’t forget they can also be deadly forces. Sometimes reading more and typing less is a good way to go. .

Call me crazy and I know the models aren’t showing it but I hope the folks in Louisiana aren’t turning off their TVs just yet. It’s getting closer but still far enough out this can shift further east, and well more so make the turn north before getting to the Texas coast. .

Is anybody streaming from down there? .

NHC still has Beryl going W at the 2 PM advisory but to my untrained eye it sure seems to have taken a WNW turn over the past hour or two .

I’m with you guys as well, but I’m not so sure Josh isn’t playing it smart on this one, showing up last minute to what could be a cat 5 or close to cat 5 storm on a very small island, even in the most secure structure for a guy with a lot of money is a risky proposition. The data and everything would be amazing and I know these guys go into risky situations but sometimes you gotta know when you messing with a beast that isn’t normal. .

So you’re saying it’s going to Hawk Tuah on the gulf coast? Did I do that right? But sorry to derail what’s becoming a serious storm that I fear most people are gonna get caught off guard by because it’s so early in the season. .

I get he has good information, only reason I don’t want to just mute or ignore him. I just wish he used words that the 75% or more of us who don’t live on tik tok understand. .

Does anyone understand a word this person says? Or is it just me .

Man I mainly just lurk but feel like from last season to now an entire new language was developed. Is what it is but for us non Mets who just enjoy learning and reading it’s a bit hard to distinguish what is real and what is BS. One thing I really liked about this place was it was 90% straight and on topic. Hopefully once the season kicks in the shit will get kicked away. .

Weather channel still focusing on Tampa tonight is crazy. This thing has a better chance hitting Alabama at this point. .

I really don’t see all the continued hype regarding Tampa for this storm. I think the local Mets have it right, maybe the coast gets a little storm surge but this thing isn’t even coming close to the coast until well after passing the TB area. The biggest worry here should probably be tornados in the extreme outer bands. It still is far enough out it could take an extreme right hand turn but I don’t think there is a single reputable model predicting that at this point. I feel like last year with Ian there were at least a few outlier models predicting it coming in further south. .

Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. For anyone more than 2-3 miles inland this will most likely be no worse than multiple storms we have had already this year. Everything points to this going further north .

I know all the focus is on the initial landfall, but how much should we start looking into the fact that this thing might loop back around after it exits the east coast? What is the likelihood we get a 2nd landfall next week? .

Sanibel Island isn’t protected by Pirates.. I kid about the pirates but there has to be a reason the TB area gets hit directly or even slightly indirectly by a Cane once every 100 years. This could be that one time, right now every indication is that it isn’t and it is well off the coast when it passes by and lands up in the peninsula. We had this conversation with Ian and at least one Hurricane every year going back for forever when the early models put TB in the cone. .

I agree, Tampa area is about as likely to just get some light rain and winds from outer bands as it is significant impacts. That being said this is going to happen quickly so hard to argue with being prepared. ….. this was supposed to be in response to the TPA closing down

I don’t know, seems like the Tampa bubble is in full effect her and this is gonna end up staying north and west .

Am I crazy to think that when that 1:30 Recon flight goes through they find Idalia has become a Hurricane. She is blowing up tonight and I’m not seeing anything that’s gonna slow that down in the next 4 hours. .

Dang Prospero, we are getting our yearly. Tampa is gonna get a landfalling Hurricane (not actually ever gonna happen) out of the way early in 2023 .