dbullsfan

Does seem to be getting that buzz saw type look finally, that being said I think its too little too late to get to that high end Cat 4/Cat 5 that many were expecting. Cat 3 seems most likely.

They will be saying it’s looking like it’s about to take off while it’s sitting over Nashville tomorrow .

The Fox weather wish casting and fear mongering has gotten as bad as TWC. They literally have a dude in a completely sunny and calm Tampa trying to tell us how bad it is and showing puddles talking about the storm surge moving in and showing a dead palm branch they probably came down weeks ago. .

Do you think this gets to 105 MPH by 8 AM as NHC is sticking with? seems extremely bullish on the RI that just is struggling to get going.

My worry with storms like this and it’s too early to completely cancel it and it will certainly be something for the big bend but in the Tampa (inland) area it has been a mad house of clearing shelves and running out of gas and shutting everything down and if nothing comes but a few rain showers than people will be more hesitant when we actually get a storm with inland impacts. I wish national mets and once with major audiences were more open to explaining the differences of what even just 5-10 miles inland can mean. .

We got a pretty decent 20 minute band around 3 today here just outside of Tampa and been pretty quiet. I’m just expecting some isolated outer bands of pretty decent storms but being about 25 miles inland should be mostly non eventful. Storm surge seems like the biggest threat down in this area, gonna be crazy up in the big bend area. At least from my amateur eyes .

Maybe not till tomorrow up to the mods but can we get a banter thread up and running? .

Question that I've wondered for a while but never asked (and not trying to get too sidetracked but this storm seems like a great example to bring it up with). Why is it with some of these storms, and with Helene being such a big storm are there huge breakups in the rain bands. As a novice onlooker I see the projected radar paths shown by local Mets and the national shows and for example where I am at about 25 miles inland near Tampa it looks like while we get some outer bands and some more as the center comes a little closer due west but a lot of breaks in between the bands so we really don't get much at all on the rain side. whereas with other storms it seems much lusher (I can't think of a better word at the moment) and the rain is more consistent throughout the storm passing. Is this something with the off-shore radar or are there just big gaps in where the rain is outside of the core? Sorry for the newb question but always been curious and figured we aren't into storm mode just yet with this one. Thanks for the feedback

Supposed to be going to a concert at the Amphitheater in Tampa Thursday night, was worried but looking like we should be in the clear outside of some outer bands so it might get a little wet. I know it’s a storm so things can always change but it seems the models haven’t budged for a couple days now and are almost locked in agreement. .

This seems insanely tightly clustered this far out. .

So this is either gonna be a major hurricane hitting Tampa or a Tropical Storm hitting Texas or somewhere in between. Got it .

Seems like a lot of steam for only 20% or is that mostly because they think the development could be more than 7 days out? Sorry for the weenie question but this one seems to have quite the buzz so the 20% kinda threw me off. .

I don't think it's a matter of if this season will come under the lofty totals many had but by how many. To be honest I'm okay with that we could use a quiet summer for once as boring as that may make it in here. This season so far has reminded me of a running back who runs the first carry of the game for a 80 yard TD and than finishes the first half at 4 carries for 83 yards. Now lets just see what the 2nd half has in store.

Might not be RI but I definitely don’t think it’s getting weaker. .

Some light rain and wind here, I’m at work over in the new port Richey area now. Wind picks up here and there but haven’t seen any big rain bands since around 1230 and nothing that would cause any leaves or branches to come off trees. Seems isolated to the coast. We are about 15-20 miles inland here. Supposedly it’s supposed to pick up over the next few hours but we will see. Still seems like most of the heavy stuff has been to the south and off the coast .

Interesting just goes to show how fine the lines are, I just walked out to my car just to see if maybe my eyes were deceiving me and yeah not a drop or sign of rain and I’m maybe 20-30 minutes away from you. .

Are you getting anything yet? Radar looking like some bands might start coming through shortly but it has been looking like that for a couple hours now and still waiting on first sign of rain. Even getting some blue skies popping through the breaks in clouds. Maybe its a dome over my area but just seems to break apart before it gets here each time.

Haven’t seen a drop here all morning, storm just too far west. I’m sure we will get a few bands or light rain but this is pretty much a northern Florida and up event. Really surprised Reed Timmer came to Tampa opposed to further up the coast .

Maybe it’s a wobble but seems to be back in more of a NW direction as well, moving further from the coast. May only be an hour or two difference but the further west it goes the more time over water if/when it turns to the east. .

I’m curious if at the 2 AM advisory it is more NNW, seems like most models have had it starting the turn north about now and it still appears to be headed NW. .

I definitely think Georgia and into the Carolina is much more of a threat than Florida with this one. I could be wrong but I don’t see it organizing in time to become more than a lower end cat 1 and maybe it slows down for some heavy rain fall amounts in the big bend and northern Florida areas but for most of the state I don’t see totals getting over 1-2 inches outside of remote areas hit directly by some serious bands. .

I guess we just missed it over here, yesterday afternoon had some doozies though, quite a few tree branches down in the backyard and neighborhood with heavy rain. Sometimes unless it’s a direct hit it can be hard to tell the difference in just a heavier than normal afternoon storm and a tropical system (at least of the TS nature, obviously major hurricanes are different) .

A band or just summer Florida storms? Seems a little far away to be considered a band of the storm? I’d expect if anything the Tampa/St Pete gets a little rain from this tomorrow but all signs seem to point to this being well off shore when it passes that part of Florida. Unless of course when it starts to really structure up the storms really push out the eastern side. .

The track record of the NHC having the Tampa Bay Area in the center of an early season cone is like clockwork and is batting like 0.000001% in the last 100 years, not saying this won’t be the one but if I were a betting man I’d be looking to the north or south ends of the cone. .

Looks like the annual “Tampa Hurricane” is gonna be early this year. .